Woodbine 7/12/2020 – Coatney Review

The Recap

What a case of second-itis for our picks yesterday with our top choices going 0-3 and our second choices going 3-0 with a 24-1 and 13-1 winning. I hope some readers cashed on pick 3’s or 4’s (pick 4 payed a tremendous $40k for $1). For our column wagering, yesterday was a terrible day to step away from the usual pick 3’s and 4’s.

Good racing today, happy Sunday!

Race 9: OC $65k 8.5f (AW)

Really tough race to formulate a race shape and find a winner.

  • Most Logical: #4 Dream Maker (2-1) Hasn’t ran since last year back on the first Saturday in May (Kentucky Derby day). Was spotted in some very tough spots compared to this field, so the back class is there. And Casse has been able to get this one to fire off long layoffs at the lower ranks back in February at Fairgrounds. With some lighter competition, this one still has a good future ahead.
  • Best Value: #6 Faraway Kitten (15-1) Recently, I didn’t like this horse because of the $40k tag purchase from the Ramsey’s, assuming they knew something about the horse’s outlook. Here I think that angle might be value. In a group where I don’t really see any tremendous threats, why not take a horse that knows how to run solid figures in past and has some proven form on the Poly track. Maybe this could be the new path forward for this one. Need to demand at least 10-1 on the tote to consider betting.

Race 10: Alw $101k 8.5 (T)

So many favorites that have knocks (layoffs, mediocre figured, etc.) that we’re digging for a few prices.

  • Best Value: #7 Niigon’s Spin (20-1) I LOVED the last race going two turns on poly, which today is just a one turn event on grass. First start back in eight months and looked like she needed the effort. Broke very well from the gate, commanded the lead, faded around the 1/8 pole. But it’s very important to note this horse wasn’t “all out” earning that 44 Beyer, the jockey conserved the horse for another day that is better suited. I’m guessing connections knew that was a warm up and today could go out, command the lead, and wire this thing at a massive price.
  • Next Best: #3 Comic Kitten (20-1) Looking simply at Beyers, the past events when trained by Mike Maker fit this field. However, the form cycle hasn’t really been great of late. I’m tossing out all three Gulfstream races as the turf down there is unique. There’s a few bright figures at Kentucky Downs (very testing course) and Saratoga. I’m willing to gamble this four year old can build upon those numbers with the right surface beneath his feet.
  • Beatable Favorite: #11 I Wonder (3-1) Eight attempts to break a maiden gives me pause. The last three events have been lackluster at a price, too. So why take favoritism on a horse coming off a long layoff, has been beaten three times at short prices, and the Beyer figures are so-so.

Race 11: MC $40k 6.5 (AW)

Spreading deep here with many having a shot.

  • Best Value: #5 Twirling Faith (10-1) Great natural gate speed when watching the last replay. Got swept up into a pace duel where the speeds all faded. Today should get a more relaxed ride sitting in the second flight on the outside. The class relief should help, too.
  • Most Logical: #1 Glamourous Girl (4-1) On debut, didn’t stand a chance against Artie’s Princess who has turned out to be a good one. Now comes back 2nd off the break with a respectable effort to build upon. The recent work tells us things are ready to roll today.
  • Honorable Mentions
    • #7 Linda Loves Lace (8-1) Ran respectable last out and could build upon that 58 Beyer second off the bench
    • #11 Queen’s Speed (8-1) Old school deep closer that may pay dividends if this pace heats up over the 6.5f

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