Woodbine 7/19/2020 – Coatney Review

Race 6: Alw 6f (AW)

Fun race on tap with some upside types and tried-and-true ones. We see there being a good bit of speed but nothing insane.

  • Best Value: #5 All Inclusive (10-1) Someone knew something last out as this one jumped Beyers by 20 points and did it impressively being the favorite. In the field of 11 going off the favorite is impressive considering the lackluster past performances. The horse had great natural speed and had a moment of tremendous quicken down at the 1/16th pole. The half furlong may seem like a minor cutback, but that demonstration of quicken coupled with the stiff fractions set previously makes me think this one could really explode turning for home. I can’t wait to see this one run against tougher competition with Emma-Jayne staying aboard. The most recent work looks good, too.
  • Most Logical: #1 Walkabout Creek (2-1) Always runs a solid race in the mid-80’s Beyers. Similar pattern in form cycle can be spotted back last August: strong running – dull effort – strong running. Would expect to improve upon that results against Chuck Willis (posted a 92 Beyer that day and has a good future ahead).
  • Vulnerable Short Prices
    • #9 Forest’s Turn (7/2) Draws the far post and will not got an easy go of it with a few speeds drawn inside. To make matters worse, this one has yet to crack into the 80’s Beyers. I will let this one beat me if he takes a big step forward.
    • #6 Buttermilk Pike (3-1) Got the easiest of leads according to TimeForm US going less than 6f in the last two events. Today will be forced to go longer and faster earlier. I don’t like the chances at the short price. We have our value line for this one at 14% (6-1) probability to win considering the horse’s chances of winning are dependent on how the horse will respond to pace pressure and if that pressure is present. In historic events where pace pressure was apparent, the results were speed and fade.

Race 7: OC $40k 5f (inner turf)

Murky event with many short price horses trying turf for first time and/or horses with an inability to pass other horses. We’re looking for a price now.

  • Best Value: #7 D Magician (20-1) We ended up here not because we love this horse but because all the other logical horses have knocks (first time turf, can’t pass horses, no obvious pace advantage). This one requires a bit of story telling to get the gist of this pick. Horse debuts going 6.5 on poly and sets a blistering TimeFormUS pace figure at first call (125). The field reels this one in and finished a respectable forth. Next out, tries turf and wins. Got away with soft fractions while leading there, though. Next race is where things go sideways during the two year old campaign. Back-to-back listed stakes races going two turns facing Graded stakes winning horses like Sir Winston and Avie’s Flatter. As for the 3 year old career, something clearly wasn’t right: 9 months to get back to races and facing too tough of competition. Move onto the 2020 debut of the 4 year old campaign, gets caught up in a bit of a speed duel going 3 wide and runs on determined near the wire. With a second off the bench and another 2-3 wide trip in the front pack, I can see this one being in the mix as things turn for home. Also doesn’t hurt that this one’s career best Beyer (ran as a two year old so there’s a big gap in form cycles) is on par with this field. Must demand 20-1 or greater to get value.
  • Next Best: #2 Four Aces High (5-1) Last turf try was a good one at a short price. Held solid fractions and posted a respectable 70 Beyer figure. The first two career debuts were 69 Beyer figures as a 3 year old, so I assume that 70 can be improved cycling up for the 3rd start as a 4 year old.
  • Logical Contenders (in order of preference)
    • #5 Pinky Dude (3-1) Gets a good upgrade on 2020 debut facing Chuck Willis, mentioned in race 6 on this card. The next out was another nice step up in the Beyer scale but not quite the win. But don’t love to see the first time turf try with a trainer who switches synth to turf such a low win percentage (6% out of 16 tries)
    • #4 Ennis the Menace (5/2) Was over matched in the listed stakes race but is trying turf for the first time. With a trainer who is 2 for 35 trying first time turf, we don’t have confidence to back at the short price.

Race 8: Clm $25k 6.f (AW)

Looks like a match race on paper so nothing too fancy with scratch of #6 Hurricane Dancer

  • SCRATCHED Best Value: #6 Hurricane Dancer (15-1) With the two heavy favorites up front setting up for a pace duel, this one should be in a perfect spot to pick up the pieces or take the win. The last even was standout even with a slow figure (71 Beyer compared to mid-80’s for the top two). The pace in that race never developed and yet this horse was able to grind down the lane to finish on top. I’m expecting a decent step forward and should stalk this pace at a nice price.
  • Top Choice: #2 Big League (2-1) Based on pace figures, this one is going to be a heads up match race with #3 Constantino the 10 year old. Big League appears more logical purely because of the age of the main rival and the trainer’s lackluster ROI for 2nd off long layoffs (180 days+). Both should be well clear of the field and Big League gets the rail with this draw.

Race 9: Mdn 6f (AW)

Getting to see an American Pharoah baby run, can’t beat that!

  • Best Value: #4 Racing in the Rain (12-1) Always love to see “with good energy” in a running line. This one was spotted several lengths back and made up the most ground coming home late. With the recent work on June 20th, I believe this one will be closer to the pace and a much more serious contender.
  • Next Best: #10 Last American Exit (7/2) Everyone will see the troubled trip in the last outing and bet this one down too far, but is very capable of stalking any speed and making a good run (as shown in last running with the trouble).
  • Beatable Favorite: #5 Speedy Moonlite (3-1) Everything went this horse’s way last outing, getting a dream trip. The Barn has only won 1 out of 19 tries for second time starter maidens.

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Further reading

Woodbine 11/14/2020 – Coatney Review

Race 8: South Ocean $100k 6.5f (AW) The 6.5f distance will be the key in endurance for the favorite. SCR Best Value: #8 Gizmo’s BFF (20-1) Last out...