Woodbine 7/25/2020 – Coatney Review

Thanks to all those who are sending feedback and notes our way. We love the engagement with fans at ITM, so keep them coming.

Let’s get some prices across the wire on my birthday!

Race 3: Marine G3 8.5f (AW)

To take a page out of the Hammer’s Book, sometimes you just have to be contrarian. Is #7 Shirl’s Speight the most logical, you bet! Did he look like a monster in the debut, yes! Could something go wrong for a second time starter diving into deep waters, absolutely! That’s where we hope to find value considering Shirl’s Speight could easily be less than even money.

  • Best Value: #2 Glorious Tribute (12-1) Last out was a good performance finishing third. This horse made two strong moves. First the hard move out of the gate to keep up with good speed horses (Golden Wave and Halo Again). After being shuffled back to the second flight of horses, the second bold move was made around the turn to make up ground. Grinding 3-4 wide exiting the turn, gets smashed by a horse being moved out around the eighth pole. Didn’t matter to Glorious Tribute, as the horse kept charging and making up the most ground late. Today’s event should fit much better at the stretch out, allowing Salles to sit back and make one run. To add to the allure of this one, there’s enough speed signed on with Shirl’s Speight, Untitled, and Lookingatmiracle to setup well for a closer. If a few of those duel early, a second flight rail trip is where we project this longshot to sit.
  • Most Logical: #6 Untitled (9/2 – expect 2-1 or 5/2 on the day) Has the speed advantage and the company kept this Spring was impressive. If no one goes with this one, could easily see a loose leader. The only hesitation for not putting this one as our top pick is we don’t think we’ll get the 9/2 and there are a few question marks with the so-so 2020 campaign to date.
  • Watch and See: #7 Shirl’s Speight (6/5) There’s two question marks – going two turns for the first time and what tactics will be used. If sent on the lead, will likely run into Untitled and have to duel. If drops back, then I think Untitled gets loose and wires as no one else suits to pressure. Our value line for this one sits around 40% chance of winning (6/5 range) but we’ll likely see an overreaction in the betting market, driving the price down to a 60-70% win probability (3/5 or 2/5). If that price drifts above 6/5, there’s value in this clearly talented horse.

Race 7: Moc 5f (AW)

No strong opinions here.

  • Tepid Top Choice: #6 Jackie Milton (7/2) Gets a bit of class relief here. The last event on turf showed a good bit of speed from the 10 post, ran in tight, split a very tight hole, but was too little too late as the eventual top-finishers were too many lengths ahead. Today I can see a much more comfortable trip sitting near the pace. The shorter distance today may help the form and allow a better closing kick.
  • Next Best: #4 Dea Del Cielo (6-1) The strong workout pattern and a respectable gate drill on 6/13 has us thinking this one will be ready to fire. Across a group that doesn’t have a standout, might be a price that drifts up. Backing at 6-1 is a bit too short.

Race 8: Selene G3 8.5f (AW)

Important to note Gary Barber has a part of three horses entered trying to take down Owelette, the co-favorite. My guess is American Tap will make one run while Two Sixty presses Owlette. The pace should be a hot one for this route. 

  • Best Value: #5American Tap (3-1) We liked this coming off the long layoff last out. Lost to a loose leader that went off 35-1. This horse hit stride late and appeared to want longer. Could be a dangerous stalking. Hoping for a price around the 3-1 mark. Anything lower we can’t justify playing based on value lines.
  • Beatable Favorite: #1 Owlette (8/5) Great debut performance back to the races running them off their feet. However, I don’t know how that tactic will work in a two turn event. Interestingly, Wesley Ward clearly doesn’t know either. With the removal of the blinker for the first time, we estimate Ward wants to find more stamina or else why remove them?

Race 9: Alw 7f (T)

Look for chaos here as the two logical are both coming off their first wins. I’ll be looking to beat both (assuming they stay the short price) and will find value (go figure).

  • Bets Value #9 Cee’s Overture (20-1) There might be still some upside left as this one on debut ran a good race over a flat mile on the turf. Hasn’t hit the board in the last four starts but that doesn’t have us phased! We’re willing to throw away the last four races. The events back in February and November looked like experiments on new surfaces that didn’t pan out. As for the January GP event, that was a bridge too far with the distance and class (both of which this horse gets relief in today’s event). In addition, Casse 2nd off layoff is 19% with a $2.16 ROI. In a wide open event, I’ll take a potential speed ball horse who has a recent bullet work.
  • Exotic Use: #10 Juxtapose (20-1) Has notched three solid wins over five tries. Today will be the first time trying turf, but I don’t mind at the price we’ll be given of 20-1+. Last out tried to hang on behind a loose leader and get passed by a stakes caliber horse, American Tap. Underneath play.
  • Beatable Favorite: #8 Millennium Force (3-1) Has an extra 1.5 panels today after the horse’s first win. Don’t love to see that with a speed horse who only has one way to go. Also, has to break cleaning from the middle of the mess that is this field.
  • Questionable Short Price: #1 Fairywren (5-1) From a pace perspective, this one projects to be too far back facing tougher competition. Needs to really step forward,  and at 5-1 I’m not willing to take those short of odds.

Race 10: OC $40k 6.5 (AW)

Many exiting the maiden ranks and a few dropping down in level. Should shape up to be a great value race. Spread race for us.

  • Top Choice:  #2 Patrol (8-1) Plenty of back class in the other events to excuse the poor efforts. Last out was in deep waters. Today finds a class level that fits better.
  • Next Best: #13 Muskoka Son (8-1) Exits a race against tough competition and was burned up in a speed duel.  Like that this is the third start off the layoff for this four year old. We may seen another step forward.

Leave a Reply

Further reading