Woodbine 7/4/2020 – Coatney Review

Great little duet of stakes races including the G2 Eclipse Stakes. Let’s get right to it!

Race 7: Queenston Stakes $125k 7f (AW)

This looks like a wide open event with these three year olds and looking to beat a favorite.

  • Best Value: #8 Deviant (10-1) We are really liking the prospects of this one here. $150k purchase colt at Keeneland September sales and gets the gelding and a new trainer. The rest of the bunch in here look so close on paper, this slight edge maybe elevate the figures on this one. If Husbands (29% winning clip at sprints), keeps this one near the pace we like you chances. Hoping to get all of the 10-1 price as this is the first go on the poly.
  • Next Best: #9 Tecumseh’s War (6-1) Figures fit well enough and should project to be better today 2nd off the layoff. Runners in the last event (Clayton, Artemus, and Lucky Curlin) are all improving types that upgrade his losing effort at the class level for today.
  • Beatable Favorite: #6 Halo Again (2-1) Had the derby fever and was never really involved. I just can’t trust the figures for this one considering the class of competition was too high. This one will need to prove that he can actually run before backing.

Race 8: Eclipse Stakes (G2) 8.5f (AW)

There looks to be some sneaky speed in this race with #1 Uncle Bull, #2 Avie’s Flatter, and #4 Mr Ritz. We hope these three tussle for the lead, letting our unexposed form of a longshot notch and upset.

  • Best Value: #6 Skywire (10-1) Came running well late in the last effort and was visually impressive enough for us to start digging through past races. Back in March at Fairgrounds, was outmatched by Parlor and some other respectable horses. Can excuse that effort due to competition and the massive layoff. Back in July ’19 something was amiss as the horse sat out for 9 months, so we’re excusing that running. The Queen’s Plate race he got an absolute awful trip getting smashed at the start as the favorite. The eventual winner of the 160th running of the Queen’s Plate, One Bad Boy, had an easy lead setting slow fractions, leaving Skywire hopeless and stuck 10 lengths back in traffic. Halfway through the turn and a hard check, the jockey decided today wasn’t going to be the day. Races farther back than that (5/25, 4/28, and 2/13) all seem to fit nicely on the figures after projecting those upward from that 3 year old campaign (assuming figures improve between 3 and 4 year old seasons). For the trip today, we will hope for a little speed up front to let this grinder style horse come running.
  • Most Logical: #4 Mr Ritz (1-1) The best horse on paper by a mile. Has a nice high cruising speed that should carry this one well into the first turn and gain position. The only big knock is coming off the big layoff for a trainer who isn’t so great at that bit. Carroll Josie is 11-65 with runners coming off layoff of 180 days or more. Absolutely the most logical contender.
  • One To Watch: #2 Avie’s Flatter (3-1) Did look in the last race to deploy energy inefficiently, fought with an unnatural head carriage. The blinkers go one and could really help get the focus back. Let’s watch to see how that head carriage looks today.

Race 9: Alw n1x 6.5f (AW)

Fun event with little pace signed on. Expect the winner to come from the main front pack as the fractions will be tepid.

Most Logical #10 Chuck Willis (9/2) Amazing debut after the two year layoff. The workout tab demonstrates this one is still training on posting a bullet work two back and a easy jog in the last. Natural speed for this one should help overcome that wide post draw. Kimura is also riding lights on for Casse barn in the last 60 days going posting a positive ROI with 25% win percentage (n=29).

Best Value #2 Speedy Bolt (8-1) Absolutely love this spot for this one. Last outing was coming off a long break and ran a good one from the 10 post. Stein stays aboard and we think this one could sit a perfect trip behind any speed, but needs to show can race a few figure points faster.

Exotic Use: #6 Tomcat Black (20-1) Interesting history of races for this one. Scratch a line through the last outing as there was little hope after getting pushed 4 or 5 wide into the rail at the start. The distance suits well as 8f+ events appear a bridge to far for this runner. Blinkers go on for a very successful trainer that we believe in.

Wagering Approach: $50 Budget

Today’s we’re trying to express two opinions with our wagering dollar – R7 Halo Again won’t win at a short price and Chuck Willis will win in R9. The latter bit we believe will have more value playing through the pick three as the pool will be blinded to a runner we believe will drift too short of a price to place our win bet. In other words, bettors can’t see what price the anchor leg will be paying while the pool is still open (unlike a double pool where we can look at “probables” to determine favoritism and payouts).

  • Race 7: Pick Three $30
    • $2 base bet: 8,9 w 4 w 10 ($8 total)
    • $2 base bet: 8,9 w 6 w 10 ($4 total)
    • $2 base bet: 8,9 w 4 w 2,6 ($8 total)
    • $1 base bet: 8,9 w 6 w 2,6 ($4 total)
    • $0.40 base bet: 2,4,7 w 4 w 10 ($1.20 total)
    • $0.40 base bet: 1,2,3,4,5,7 w 4,6 w 10 ($4.80 total)
  • Race 9 $20 Win Bet #10 Chuck Willis (will place wager if anything at or over 7/2)

Meet Stats as of 7/4/2020

  • Meet ROI: -$212.45
  • Wagered $327.20
  • Won: $114.75

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