Woodbine 7/5/2020 – Coatney Review

The Recap

What a day it was for picks nabbing 2 out 3 top choices! Skywire lived up to my tale and really showed the grit down the lane. Our wagering approach was correct in terms of trying to bet into a blind pool with Chuck Willis (who went off too short for us to place the win wager at 3/2). However, the double pool is where we would have liked to play with our two top choices paying almost $50 for a $1. In retrospect, that would have been the right choice to try and not beat the favorite in Race 7. Let’s keep grinding.

Race 9: Fury Stakes $125k 7f (AW)

Interesting bunch that is a bit eye crossing when trying to find the speed in this race.

  • Most Logical: #3 Curlin’s Voyage (2-1) Made the move into a hot pace last race and too short of a distance for this daughter of Curlin. With the added furlong and second off the bench, we think this one fits perfectly.
  • Next Best: #5 Avie’s Samurai (5/2) Showed a bit of improvement in the first start back. The pace seemed honest enough at the optional claiming ranks. The only concern is last time facing stakes company fell a bit flat, but has all the right to step forward.

Race 10: MC $15k 8.5f (T)

Wide open affair with several sitting on the AE list.

  • Best Value: #2  He’s a Gizmo (8-1) The two debut turf tries for this one was good enough to win against this bunch. Went on to race 3 more times on poly with so-so results. The 6/20 workout has caught our eye. With the good draw, the good work, blinkers on, we’re hoping to see this one in the first. Husbands isn’t riding great on the turf right now, but we have faith he will turn that around to normalize with his overall meet record of 21% winners.
  • Most Logical: #11 Shangassah (3-1) Has been running very close at a bit higher of level. Gets needed class relief and gelding. We like to see the geldings with the sweet spot of layoffs between 3 – 5 months to get fit and focused. Cautious that 3-1 will shorten up and leave no value for this runner.
  • Exotic Use: #9 Nu Baby Daddy (20-1) First time lasix is a good sign for this one. Extremely surprised to see that step forward and closing into the slow pace last back. Projects and improvement here 2nd off with the addition of Lasix.

Race 11: Maiden 7f (T)

Race where we’ll be spreading and think we can catch a price here.

  • Best Value: #9 YoursTruly (15-1) Ran a good one on debut back in September with a nice middle move we liked to see. The last start way back in November was a rough go getting the bad break. With the long layoff and lack of depth in this field, I’ll side with a on-fire trainer at a big price.
  • Next Best: #2 Hasn’t Hit Me Yet (20-1) Showed good speed a few back and think the nice post draw will help. The layoff is an issue (as we all of these) but you’ll be getting a much better price with the bullet work on 6/12.
  • Beatable Favorite: #12 Empire Angel (4-1) Great classy bred horse but why take 2-1 on a horse that has been on a long layoff and seems to have a bit of hang when looking at the last races. The wide draw doesn’t help either.

Wagering Approach: $35.20 Budget

We will be spreading in the last leg trying to catch a price with our logicals in race 1 and 2.

Pick 3 Race 7: $35.20

  • $3  base bet: 3 w 11 w 2,6,9,14 ($12 total)
  • $1 base bet: 5 w 11, w 2,6,9,14 ($4 total)
  • $2 base bet: 3 w 2,9, w 2,6,9,14 ($16 total)
  • $0.40 base bet: 5 w 2,9 w 2,6,9,14 ($3.20 total)

Meet Stats as of 7/5/2020

  • Meet ROI: -$239.45
  • Wagered $354.20
  • Won: $114.75

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