The Recap from Last Weekend
No recap as our key horses scratched, sadly.
Race 8: ALW $67kn1x 8.5f (AW)
This is a really salty bunch so tread lightly. With so many untested young horses going up against the likes of 7 y/o’s, this is a puzzle.
Top Choice: #6 Rince Tapaigh (10-1) – We bet this one a few weeks back (8/3) and had a mild-trip (shuffled back, no where near leaders who kept a slow pace, only horse gaining down the stretch). One thing we glanced over was this 7 year old is 58% in the money over the 51 starts. We’ll side with the veteran and hope for a better pace to run into this time.
Best Value: #1 Grand Mesa (10-1) – Another we tried betting last out in the tougher spot (Wonder Where Stakes, 10f on the turf) but the horse scratched at the gate. We still like this spot as there’s not much separating this tough field. Horse showed good maturity in last start and should sit a stalking trip with a pace that will likely heat up.
Most Logical: #5 Amalfi Coast (3-1) – Easily could be on the lead and wire this group, but the knock here is this horse is now out of maiden ranks and trying winners for the first time. Also, the horse broke the maiden going 7f (1.5f shorter than today’s distance). With the failed maiden breaker attempts at longer, we’ll keep this one off the tickets as the speed may not carry for the added distance.
Beatable Favorite: #9 I wonder (5/2) – On paper, the numbers look like this one is the clear winner. But this horse loves to find trouble (7 tries to break maiden) and might find more of that today as this one doesn’t like to go to the lead. At those short odds, we’ll pass and let this one beat us.
Race 9: Play the King (G2) 7f (T)
We don’t see too many 7f turf dashes in the states, so this is a fun race to look at. Also, we won’t be scared by the $1.5M horse, Curlin’s Honor, as we believe the 7f seems like an in-between distance for this one.
Best Value: #5 Admiral Pier (6-1) – Another that came out of the El Tormenta and Silent Poet race on 7/21. We like this one for two reasons. First, the horse has nice upside as only running 3 times as a 4 y/o and each time showed a new level of ability. The other is the horse had a worse trip than El Tormenta, getting squeezed on the inside down the stretch, forcing the jockey to throw in the towel. Couple those two opinions with the bullet 5f work on 8/9 and a very impressive running in the Tampa Bay G3, we like the odds.
Most Logical: #1 El Tormenta (9/5) – Can win from both on and off the lead. At the 7f distance, we’ll assume he will sit back and let the pace duel happen between these natural sprinters. The last effort is forgiven as there was no seam to run down on the rail and finally bounced out 5 paths and could run for the last 1/8th of a mile. The gallop out was impressive.
Beatable “Favorite”: #2 Silent Poet (2-1) – got the absolute dream trip last out, saving ground, on the lead, with slow fractions. Expect the same today but with added pressure and the extra 0.5f.
Wagering Approach ($50)
- R8 Double: $5 6,1 w 5 (remember, we don’t love the 8th but we think there’s some prices to be found)
- R9: Win #5 $20 (odds of 5-1 or higher)
- R9 Ex 5 w 1: $15
- R9 Ex 1 w 5: $5 (saver)