Race 7: Moc $40k 6f (AW)
Lot of first timers here to make this one fun
- Top Choice #1 Mitzl (8-1 but I’m expecting 3-1 due to the obvious trouble) Broke away from the gate with nice speed, settled well, traveled wide while ranging up around the turn, and then everything went wrong. Looked like there wasn’t a lead change that caused the strong veer and steady. The oddest part was the horse ran on strongly the last 1/16th or more. With a cure for that greenness (which I believe is a simple lead change fix), the one is live to break clean from the gate and never look back.
- Beatable Favorite #10 (3-1) I can’t back a horse who can’t break cleanly, is posting out farther than the debut, and has a lower figure than our troubled-trip top horse.
Race 8: Alw 6f (T)
Fun race shape where we think two outside horses are going to force the hand of a few inside horses.
- Most Logical #4 Betwixting (5/2) A very impressive debut losing to a very good horse. Last out was a bit wide and was tending the hot pace per TimeForm US, so we’ll upgrade the effort. Where we think this one has a real advantage today is the race shape. No horses inside looks to show speed, so this horse will be able to grab the rail and cruise. The other two dominate speeds are drawn to the outside (#9 Revivalist and #10 Ishiyaya), leaving them out in no man’s land a bit. We’re hoping they get stuck wide and have to expend energy to establish position while our top choice cruises along that rail.
- Next Best #2 Roman d’Oro (6-1 but could be hammered in the betting due to the obvious trouble, high profile connections, and strong performance) Last out performance is a big upgrade in my book – stalked speeds, had zero holes coming down the lane, never had a chance. The strong work out back on July 15th coupled with the strong debut effort for the 3 year old hints there’s plenty of upside. However… the race shape plays into the hands of our top choice as this one will want to talk. We see #2 Roman d’Oro having to stalk the leaders and get lucky to work out a trip. The value line sits with this one at 8-1.
- Beatable Favorite: #9 Revivalist (3-1) In last two runnings had blue fractions while per Timeform US. And those fractions only average to a 96, so we’re not sure if this one will get the easy trips as in past.
Race 9: Clm $25k 7.5f (T)
Outside speed drawn in this turf event.
- Most Logical: #8 Saltini (6-1 but might drift down to 5/2 due to 3rd off layoff, superior Beyers/TimeForm US, drop in class): Has enough natural speed to sit off the leaders and put a nice move down the lane.
- Best Value: #9 Marten River (15-1, should get 10-1 due to clear lone speed): There’s not too much speed drawn inside. Might be able to get loose second off the layoff. Note the bullet workout 3 back (46 and change!)
- Too Short Price: #10 Canmore (7/2 but drifting to 5-1) Widest draw of the speeds and won’t have an easy go of it. Fractions have been a bit soft in past races, so will have to work a trip out.