Opinions on the day
- Race 3: Pink Lloyd is beatable (predicting a DQ)
- Race 5: Straight Exacta (3 w 4)
- Race 7 Canadian (G1): Competitionofideas is beatable
- Race 9 Woodbine Mile (G1) : Awesometank will wire
Race 1: 6f (T) Clm$25k n2L
Overview: Here’s the question in this race: will #1 Suitedconnected show speed first on the turf? I’m banking no and to be a non-factor in this bunch of well-matched horses.
Betting: it’s so hard to trust these first time turf horses and moves in class. I would watch the price on the #6 Meet Cute, anything above 7/2 (22% chance of winning) sounds like a solid bet and may try to play the pick 3 cold.
Most Logical: #6 Meet Cute – Best speed on paper (albeit poly), and the 6f turf should suit well knowing that the 6.5 was too long last out (speed and faded).
Best Value: #7 Bitethebulletbro – Can show a bit of speed and establish position. There’s some excuses in this one’s recent starts. Last race (8/16) was draw too wide, used early to establish position which caused tiring problems in the stretch – struggled to switch leads, fought to keep straight path last eight. Three back (8/21) was the only one closing into the loose leaders: outran #2 Victors Way and #3 Frobisher Bay on the square that day.
Exotic Use: the field (no opinions elsewhere, but if forced my 3rd choice is #2 Victor’s Way – 21% 1st after claim operation, never embarrassed)
Race 2: 5f (T) Mdn $65k
Overview: Couple big price tag horses here trying to break their maiden after a handful of starts. Let’s look for a price in one of the up and coming horses who showed good tactical speed going the two turn 7.5f (T) distance first asking.
Betting: If we can get anything above 8-1 on our top choice, that’s a solid win bet for us as we have knocks on all the other favorites in here.
Best Value: #6 Hey Congrats – Broke from the 11 post last out and showed decent tactical speed to get in front with the poor break. The strong middle move has our attention: going 2 turns at the 7.5f distance, quickening entering the far turn, and grinding down the lane. With another start under her belt, I’m looking forward to betting this one here. Note the jockey upgrade here, too.
Most Logical: #5 Real Money – This distance and speed favoring track will play perfectly to this horse. I’ll forgive the try at SAR considering as it looked like this horse needed that last start.
Exotic Use: #7 Four Aces High – With the slow break and decent TimeFormUS figures, this one has all the right to improve and stalk the trip. The decent workouts point to a horse ready to fire.
Race 3: 6.5f (AW) Bold Venture Stakes (G3)
Overview: why not take a stand against a 3/5 shot that doesn’t look to want the full 6.5f.
Betting: Pink Lloyd will be over bet so I’ll be trying to connect our early pick 3 together with the two value plays on top in this pay leg.
Best Value: #4 Sable Island – Should improve after the testing 7f (T) event and be in top shape to fend off Pink Lloyd coming down into the stretch. I’m hoping for a 2w stalking trip with Pink Lloyd pinned down on the inside as Curlin’s Honor and Yorkton press the issue.
Next Best: #7 Yorkton – Cross a line though the last three starts (too steep of company, wrong surface, long layoff), and we may see this horse come back to form in a bunch that doesn’t have group one speed signed on.
Beatable Favorite: #2 Pink Lloyd – I know, I know, the horse is 21 for 26 at Woodbine and an outright superstar. But, go look at those races that are more than 6f. Every time the horse has a furlong to go, he veers wildly 4 or 5 paths and doesn’t look to want the testing 6.5f but prefers the 6f. If any horse rises up and tests this horse down the lane, I’m lighting up the objection sign as there’s bound to be interference. At 3/5, how can we put on top? If it were a flat 6f, give me this superstar all day at 1/9.
Race 4: 6f (T) Alw $67k n1x
Overview: race shape looks to be inside 3 horses and maybe the 6 will go to the lead. This should create a dream setup for a stalking, closing move.
Betting: Sitting this one out as the pace has to unfold perfectly and don’t trust any of the speeds to get the job done.
Most Logical: #9 Patton’s Girl – With the three inside speeds, this will setup perfect for the sweeping move of this horse. Expect to be back 4 or 5 lengths with the three inside horses dueling. A big move on the turn by Patton’s Girl will be the winning one.
Best Value: #4 My Borrowed Angel – Made a great move into a slow pace last out on the rained-off-turf track. Now gets the turf, should have pace to run into.
Next Best: #6 Double Medal – I have a hunch they’ll try this one forwardly placed instead of trying to sit the trip. With the steep fields, my guess is they knew they weren’t going to outgun graded stakes sprinters and hoped for a collapse. With the improving 3 year old making big Beyer jumps in the series of starts, I can see this one projecting a career best.
Race 5: 6.5f (AW) Clm $15k n2L
Overview: Suits don’t always have to pick horses with corporate buzz terms (although I do like a good synergy in with a merger). Without much pace, this looks to be a two horse affair. The top selections projects on paper to be closer to the pace than last few starts and has a nice quicken we like to see across the wire.
Betting: Being able to dismiss so many horses in here, I’m going after this as a cold exacta with #3 and #4 – the probables for the exacta on a dollar needs to be greater than $12 for $1. There’s some value in using the #5 underneath as well.
Most Logical: #3 Skynard – last out lost to a 47-1 and 17-1 that were loose leaders and this horse was the only one making up ground late. With the class relief and the jockey upgrade, should be better spotted for a nice stalking trip.
Next Best: #4 Krpan – only true speed in here and we’ll excuse the last start at a higher class level off a long layoff. Could get loose but does this horse want the 6.5f is my only hesitation.
Exotic Use: #5 Meant to Tell You – has a bit of a look 2nd start for a small training operation. Looks to be a deep closer with runs against the pace flow. Underneath use only for me.
Race 6: 5f (AW) Maiden Optional Claimer $40k
Overview: let’s assume the #1 horse is going to scratch here considering the $40k tag on her. They purchased her for $160k only a few months ago so that sounds like a bad business move for savvy connections like Breeze Easy (owners of Shang Shang Shang who won the Norfolk Stakes in Ascot). Otherwise, tread lightly as I have minimal read on this race.
Betting: this is a pass race or an ALL button.
Most Logical: #3 Artie’s Princess – gets blinkers first asking, has been training well, ward firster, top jockey. Not much to argue with.
Next Best: #2 Romantic Gizmo – another with some good works and notably, the gate work most recently on paper points to all systems are ready to go.
Exotic Use: #8 Don’t Smile Lilah – the addition of Lasix and big speed first out has me interested. The panel cut back might help carry that speed.
Race 7: 9f (T) Canadian (G2)
Overview: with a murky pace projection and the heavy favorite an easy stand against, this becomes an interesting race. I didn’t include #3 Magnetic Charm, but on paper doesn’t have the back class we like to see with these type of shippers (mainly listed stakes).
Betting: To start the pick four we’re spreading around but leaving off Competitionofideas as we think value is to be found.
Top Pick: #6 Starship Jubilee – should be forwardly placed with the lack of pace signed on and sit behind a few front runners (if any). The salty bunch she faced at Saratoga hopes to have her in peak fitness.
Next Best: #1 Touriga – the upside for the 2nd start as a 4 y/o is appealing. She showed amazing ability to hang with competitionofideas in the 3 horse chess match. Give this one a nod to try and upset at what should be north of 6-1 with a more traditionally run race.
Exotic Use: #4 Dixie Moon – a very sneaky play with the fitzs and starts of this training program. Gets the fresher and is the only one signed on who may just try a suicidal pace tactic (which I don’t mind considering the lack speed horses in here). If this horse is right, could sneak away and grind away down the lane at a huge price for a trainer who is 25% with the 46-90 day layoff.
Beatable favorite: #5 Competitionofideas – ignore the pace calls in the last race as Thais was 20 lengths clear as they entered the far turn in the Beverly D and flattened out in the last two panels. I’m a firm believe that figure earned last out was 4-5 points inflated due to the winner’s track record setting time and the amazing setup caused by Thais that the Chad Brown runners love (drop back, make one run, close strong). On Saturday the horse won’t have the rabbit, there’s hardly any pace, and scratching that last figure from the record proves to not be a standout over this field.
Race 8: 5f (AW) Maiden Optional Claimer $40k
Overview: all button except for the exposed form of the 10
Race 9: 8f (T) Ricoh Woodbine Mile (G1)
Overview: Considering I don’t trust in Got Stormy, this race becomes a very interesting puzzle of who will set the pace. My bet is this could be a wire job race with all these closers.
Betting: win bet on the #6 Awesometank and fading Got Stormy on all horizontal tickets
Best Bet: #6 Awesometank – The Beverly D shows plenty of positives, albeit a losing effort. The real trouble was getting strung out and stuck in no man’s land 8 lengths ahead of the eventual winner and 8 lengths behind the suicidal pace setter Thais. Unlike Competitionofideas who I’m tossing that figure as he closed into the collapsing pace, Awesometank earned it by clinging onto the pace and finishing a solid 2nd. The quicken at the top of the stretch has my eye. There were 8-10 strides when asked really showed a good burst. Eventually was passed down the lane by the monster Sistercharlie who set the track record that day. With the slight cut back and limited pace signed on, I’m all in on this one.
Next Best: #7 Raging Bull – Always runs a solid TimeformUS pace figure and still has upside left. Last race was poorly timed because this one was dead last when the racing began exiting the far turn. I would expect Rosario to stalk a closer trip (4-5 back) and beat Got Stormy on the square in a head-to-head.
Exotic Use: #3 Silent Poet – continues to improve and I was against last time out. Showed a new dynamic to sit a stalking trip and quicken when asked. The race overall looked like a workout for this horse. At 15-1 this one is dangerous (note: UK betting markets have this one at 14-1, which is still a square price). 3rd off the layoff and limited speed signed on, I’m excited to use this one.
Race 10: 12f (T) Northern Dancer (G1)
Overview: I don’t have a great read on these marathon events so tread lightly. One thing to note is Old Persian did run against the formidable foe Kew Gardens in his three year old campaign. This one appears to be a rightful favorite.
Betting: in horizontals will be using my two picks below prominently but also have some savers with Focus Group.
Most Logical: #1 Old Persian – the ship across the pond is the only concern, but the back class this one has kept and solid form, we’ll side with this one.
Best Value: #6 Tiz a Slam – I’ve always liked this horse, so I’m biased here. However, the horse loves a front running grinder style of race and there’s nothing wrong with that. The slight freshening and great workouts are all positives in this otherwise murky field.
Race 11: 6f (T) Alw $67 n1x
Overview: No opinion other than a beatable 2nd choice favorite here.
Betting: There’s a lot of “wishful thinking” in this race, so we’ll spread here (7,9,12,4,2,11 all have cases to win).
Most Logical: #1 Combative – showing some improvements, has early foot, draws the rail and hopes to have minimal trouble as the scramble unfolds behind.
Next Best: #5 Jungle Warrior – last start I can forgive considering the back form and hot pace set. With the 2nd start for this trainer, I like the idea this one puts it all together today.
Beatable: #3 Get the news – I hate betting back maiden breakers moving up in a salty bunch. Although the figures fit on paper, at this price I don’t trust. But what about the 24% first after the claim for this trainer? I was chatting with someone at the DG lounge in Saratoga about trainer stats can be very situational – this one is a perfect example. 24% off the claim from WHO is the big question. If claiming off cold or incapable operations, this trainer can move them forward. But when claiming off a top barns that have both more than 100 runners and win more than 15% of the time, that 24% first after the claim drops significantly.
Race 12: 7.5f (T) MC $15k
Overview: No opinion – really salty bunch and we’re searching for direction
Betting: action bet on #9 Lilibet
Best Value: #9 Lilibet – sneaky play as I’ll excuse the latest poly try and the stretch out to the mile on turf. Go three back and she closed into a slow pace and looked to want a bit more. At 15-1 we like the odds.
Most Logical: #5 Dance Ready – can she get the full 7.5f? To win needs to relax and sit the stalking trip instead of the duel that may happen upfront with this scramble bunch.
Leave a Reply