Race 2: #2 Fighting Irish 12-1
It looks like there’s a good amount of speed in this spot so I want to take a chance with a comebacking closer. The first time gelding hasn’t run since November, but the most recent workout was an easy 3 furlong blowout and I think it indicates he’ll be plenty fit for his return. He is light on figures, but that doesn’t bother me since he hasn’t run since he was a two year old and has probably developed quite a bit since then. Plus, he is getting some class relief for his return as he had been facing straight maidens until today. Again, I think there’s several horses in here that want to be forward, and he has the best late-pace figures in the field. I like the inside draw for him as he’ll save all the ground, and he easily ran the best speed figure of his career the only time he was drawn inside so maybe he’s a horse that really enjoys being covered up. It’s worth finding out at a solid price.
The play: $10 W/P on #2
Race 4: #1 Favorite Channel 10-1
I thought this filly got a useful prep race last time and should be ready to go second off the layoff. She broke with the leaders and tracked the pace from the inside, then made a move into contention in the lane and evened out to finish fourth beaten just two lengths. That race was only five furlongs and she actually galloped out in front of the field. She gets an extra furlong to work with and a nice inside draw will ensure she’ll save all the ground against this unreliable group. I also like that her career best effort came second off a layoff when she increased her Beyer 11 points, the same situation she finds herself in today, and a bullet work since the last race indicates she could make a similar leap today.
The play: $20 W/P on #1
Race 5: #1 Shamateur 3-1
Woodbine has an industry low 15% takeout on the double and this looks like a good opportunity to make a small play with my longshot from race 4. This is another horse coming off a layoff, but either of his last two starts will make him very tough against these. He’s been working well for the return and again I like that his last workout was just an easy 3 furlong blowout since that makes me believe he’s already as prepared as he can be and will be ready to fire today. He’s very tactical and he drew well today, so I’m hoping the big field will help increase his value even though he’s a very logical contender.
The play: $5 double starting in Race 4: 1/1
$25 Win on #1
