Race 2: #5 Renegade Serenade 4-1
This lightly raced 3 year old is one of the main contenders in this spot and I’m hoping that morning line of 4-1 is accurate. Toss the stakes race going much further last year and he’s really done nothing wrong in his career. His two starts sprinting last year produced a first and a second with respectable speed figures. He won’t have to improve much from two to three on the Beyer figures to be competitive against these rivals. His first start this year he just ran evenly around the track in a race where the speed completely held together. I’m hoping he can move forward off that performance as his trainer is winning at 20% second off the layoff from a limited sample.
My biggest concern is that he might not get a great set-up again. #4 Reload’s Rebel(2-1) won gate-to-wire on debut earning the biggest Beyer in this field in doing so. It looks like he could get loose again. There’s a chance the #2 or #3 contest the pace early, but even if they do he could stalk from in the clear if his rider chooses to. He’s a logical favorite and I don’t want to get beat by him.
The Play: $10 win #5
$5 straight exacta 4/5
$5 double 5/5
Race 3: #5 One More Brew 5/2
This Milwaukee Brew gelding returns to the races for the first time in nine months and catches a field that doesn’t appear to be very strong. His speed figures (Beyer and Timeform US) as a two year old last September are on par or higher than what this field has been producing lately. So if he runs back to those numbers he’ll be very competitive, and if he can improve at all as an older horse he could be long gone. Timeform has him as the highest late pace figure horse in the race and I love that they also have him among the early leaders in their pace projection. He’s getting a break in the weights with the apprentice Vives bothering to ride and he’s had a lot of success with these connections. The trainer is 0 for 11 off this type of layoff, but the worktab looks good so maybe that stat will drive the price up.
The Play: $40 win #5 at 3/2 or higher
