Race 4: #6 Wave Baby 6-1
Wave Baby shows up in a seller for the first time in his career and that could make the difference in a full field of camera-shy horses. He’s dropping from optional claimers nw2 to $25k claimers NW2 so this field should definitely be easier. This will be the second start of his campaign today after getting a useful prep last month. He had a wide trip after drawing the extreme outside post, and was in contention until the final furlong before tiring. That race was at a mile and he’s cutting back to six and a half furlongs for today’s race. He’s had success at this trip finishing second both times when running on the turf. And he’s drawn much better today and should get a decent trip from mid-pack. There isn’t much speed drawn to his inside so I’m hoping he can out-foot those rivals early, save ground from the inside, and find a seam late at a decent price.
Race 6: #10 So Called Vacation (10-1)
I’m against #2 Mt Logan (4-1) as he lacked the eye of the tiger in his races and the trainer is just 8% off this long layoff. I’m also against #6 Old Blue Cliff (3-1) who could not have gotten a better trip last time tracking a four horse duel in the clear before he hung badly in the stretch. He certainly could move forward second off the layoff, but he’s going to be a short price, especially with Kimura climbing aboard. The #7 Chairman Rainbow (5-1) is probably the one I fear the most as the potential best speed, but I have a hard time envisioning him getting loose in a big field, and I have a feeling #1 Marten Storm will be hard sent from the rail after he was very rank early on in his debut.
My top choice is #10 So Called Vacation (10-1). He didn’t do much running as a two-year-old, but he returned to the races in late May with a vastly improved effort. He showed much more early speed to flee the rail and held on all the way to the wire to be a clear third after it appeared he was done at the quarter pole. The horse he dueled with early finished last, the two horses that finished in front of him came from well off the pace. I’m hoping he can build off that performance, last year he jumped up 15 points from start one to start two of his campaign. That’s probably a bit ambitious to expect a similar jump, but even just a five point improvement would put him up there with the most logical contenders. He drew towards the outside today and his newfound early foot should allow him to stalk the pace in the clear. He also has the third highest Timeform US late-pace figure and I’m a big fan of this kind of speed/finish combo.
