2025 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Runner By Runner Guide – by Steven Bonnick

The ground is currently very soft and times are slow, so I think you want a mudlark here. There is very little pace on paper.

1. Giavellotto – is one that that probably wouldn’t want the ground too soft. He beat Kalpana last time out with the aid of the flow but did it convincingly and last year’s Hong Kong Vase winner has amassed a good record right-handed. He does have some form on bad ground from his earlier days at a much lower level and has developed into a very good horse, I just think a few of these will be better than him under soft conditions.
2. White Birch – a very talented horse who hasn’t had much luck with injuries or ground for most of his career. Ran well enough in the Irish Champion Stakes last time out off a long break on ground that again looked to have gone against him – times dipped below standard – but flattened out late after making a small move. Was third in the Derby two years ago but best form has been over 10 furlongs and needs more against crack middle-distance horses.
3. Arrow Eagle – progressive colt who will love the ground but behind several of these last time out in the Prix Foy and hard to see him turning that form around even if the ground softens markedly.
4. Sosie – fine fourth in this last year and just touched off in the Prix Foy last time out suggesting he is peaking at the right time. Bit to find with Byzantine Dream on that effort but looks an improved performer this season and should run a big race with conditions suitable.
5. Los Angeles – talented performer but he hasn’t really kicked on since a Group 1 win in the Tattersalls Gold Cup (White Birch behind) in May and needs cheekpieces to revive if he is to improve on a third placed finish in the race last year.
6. Byzantine Dream – improved since the application of a hood recently and did well to land the Prix Foy first off the plane last time out. Should improve for that run but I’m not convinced that the ground will be suitable as his best form so far has come on a decent surface.
7. Estrange – scratched.
8. Quisisana – improving mare who ran a career best to land the Prix Jean Romanet last time out on her first start at Group 1 level. Handles soft ground and yard in flying form, and stepping back up to this distance might help her find the improvement she needs. Good profile for the race and may go well at big odds.
9. Kalpana – favourite for this at one stage with her ability to handle soft ground proven and a nice profile for the race, as well as notable connections, but this season has been a disappointment. Has ultimately run very well despite finishing second three times but on more than one occasion her finishing effort hast left me disappointed. Has a shot on form and this has been her target all season and wasn’t seen to best effect behind Giavellotto last time, but I’m going to look elsewhere.
10. Aventure – runner-up in the race last year and hasn’t done much wrong in 2025, with her one defeat to Calandagan reading very well. Has improved slightly this term on ratings and has proven ability under the conditions, so I expect her to run very well again; big chance.
11. Daryz – highly-regard sort who flopped on his only start at Group 1 level, but that was a strange race and maybe the ground was too quick. Bounced back to form last time out when just touched off by Croix Du Nord. He had the benefit of race fitness over that rival but Croix Du Nord had the flow and Daryz threw in some very impressive splits to just miss at the line. He shapes as though he should be even better over the 12 furlong distance and he looks a threat to all, although tendency to be keen and a lack of pace are worries stepping up in distance.
12. Leffard – form of his Grand Prix de Paris hasn’t really worked out and was too keen when well held in the Prix Niel last time out. Should improve for that run but needs more and others make more appeal.
13. Cualificar – French Derby 2^nd who improved for the step up to 12 furlongs to land the Prix Niel last time. I’m not sure that’s strong from and he needs to improve again for softer going to turn around from with Alohi Alli here.
14. Hotazhell – soft ground performer who ran well in the Irish Champion Stakes last time out. Ground was probably a bit quick there and should enjoy an easier surface here, but stamina to prove and hard to see the Saratoga Derby fourth going on to be an Arc winner two months later.
15. Croix Du Nord – Japanese Derby winner who made a winning debut in France last time out when just holding off Daryz. Hard to know how fit he was for that and he was beaten in another stride, while wide draw is a negative, but is a big price now for a horse that is clearly very talented.
16. Alohi Alii – another Japanese raider who appeared to take a big step forward on his European debut when seeing off the talented Rashabar, with Cualificar back in third. Had the run of the race there but appeared to relish the switch to front-running tactics. May not be able to lead here but should get a nice pitch from stall 4, I loved that win and I think he is a big contender here, provided that the ground isn’t too soft. Needs to break better than last time.
17. Minnie Hauk – unbeaten since her debut, this Frankel filly has swept all before her this season for Aidan O’Brien. Latest win was something of a formality but should have set her up nicely for this and she really does have everything you’d look for in an Arc winner, while she also seems to have been trained for the race. Wouldn’t want the ground to get really soft in my opinion, but otherwise looks a prime contender from stall 1 with Soumillon doing his lowest weight.
18. Gezora – French Oaks winner who was a good second behind Aventure last time out off a break. Needs to improve again to reverse that form but was against the flow there and looks to be trained to the minute by her top stable. Excellent profile for the race and should run a big one.

Verdict: A deep affair that is complicated by a lack of pace. Minnie Hauk ticks plenty of boxes but I’m not sure that she wants the ground this soft and she is about the right price now. Aventure looks primed to run well but I’ll take small chances on GEZORA and ALOHI ALLI, both of which are currently 16/1 with the bookmakers.