Race 1: #1 Rashmi (6-1)
Woodbine has put together a fantastic 12-race card on Saturday that features four Grade 1 races and plenty of wagering opportunities so get involved! Right out of the gates I’m very interested in the first race as I think there are reasons to oppose the shorter prices. #5 Under Agreement (3-1) was bet to favoritism on debut while being offered for a tag for Chad Brown at Aqueduct. It was a sub-par group and she just ran in place around the track and was well-beaten despite a pretty good trip. This group is arguably better and she’s not appealing at a short price for these connections. Both #2 Just Magnificent (7/2) and #3 English Jubilee (2-1) exit a similar turf spot last month where they both hit the board. However, I thought they both got pretty sweet trips, especially the favored #3 English Jubilee who got a great set-up and saved every inch of ground on the final turn, and yet was still outkicked by a fellow closer who had to go wide. Furthermore, the race hasn’t been productive and there’s a strong case to be made that the Beyer figure is too high by at least 5 points.
I Like #1 Rashmi (6-1) quite a bit in this spot. Her debut was rock-solid as she closed into a slow pace to get up for third and the horses that completed the exacta were 1-2 throughout the entire race. Her next start at Kentucky Downs was just okay, she basically ran in place while wide throughout. But that race was against way better animals and I’m always willing to forgive a race over that funky course. She finds herself in favorable circumstances for today’s race. Soft field, rail draw, a murky pace scenario(Timeform has her right on the pace), and Frankie Dettori bothers to ride. His presence may hurt the price, but it certainly enhances her chances of finding the winner’s circle to kick off today’s card.
Race 2: #6 Aristella (8-1)
I don’t feel nearly as strongly about the second race of the day, a complete scramble for two year old maidens on the grass. Several exit the same race on the original King’s Plate Day where none of them ran particularly well, but it was pouring and the track was flooded in several spots so I’m not sure what to make of that race. And the other horses coming out of different races all basically ran the same figure and nothing really stood out. Price will be my guide in this spot, so if the morning line holds I think #6 Aristella is a good gamble anywhere near the 8-1 offered. She didn’t do any running in her one and only start, but that came at Saratoga in early July in what turned out to be one of the better maiden races of the meet. Virgin Colada finished a strong second in a stakes despite zero set-up, Rare Art returned to win a maiden race on Travers weekend, and the last-place finisher Ready to Battle was the winner of that aforementioned maiden race at Woodbine on King’s Plate day. Point is, it was a productive race so I’m more willing to forgive that effort. Mott typically isn’t great the first time out either, especially going a route of ground (she switches trainers for today’s race). She’s bred to handle this trip all day and I think it’s interesting that top rider Kimura shows up here for connections he rarely teams up with.
Race 3: #6 Rhaenys (10-1)
#6 Rhaenys’s debut went about as well as Season 2 of House of the Dragon-disappointing and unwatchable. But that race came at Kentucky Downs and again that’s a track that many horses simply don’t handle, especially first time starters. I thought there were enough positive signs going into the debut that made me want to give her another chance. The work tab was good and that bullet work from the gate on August 4th leaps off the page. I also think it was telling that this horse got bet to just 7-1 against better horses, especially given the fact that Thomas isn’t usually fully cranked first time out. She ran so poorly that it’s definitely possible that she bled, so no surprise they ship her up to Woodbine where Lasix is allowed for two year olds. It’s also encouraging that Thomas is tremendous with first time Lasix winning at a 44% clip from 16 starters. This is a much easier group so if she’s able to run at all, she figures to show it today.
Race 4: #7 Elusive Knight (6-1)
I was hesitant to take too short of a price in this spot. #4 Whisper Not (5/2) obviously has run races that would be plenty good enough, but his last race was discouraging as I thought he had a pretty good trip and didn’t kick on, and now he shows up for a much cheaper tag than he was just claimed for. #1 Fighter in the Win (4-1) is 0 for 12 on the grass so I can’t take him. #2 Onenightstandards (3-1) makes plenty of sense and should get a good trip right behind the speed, I just preferred to take a horse that has kept similar company and will be double the price.
#7 Elusive Knight (6-1) beat Palio by a nose three back and had a much tougher trip, making his move earlier into the fast pace and going very wide while doing so. Palilo came right back to win last month and improved his figure by eight points. He also soundly defeated today’s rival #2 Onenightstandards in that race and those two had nearly identical trips. Elusive Knight would come back to finish a respectable fifth in a race where the pace mostly held together and that was probably shorter than he prefers. Nothing wrong with his most recent effort going a marathon when they crawled on the front end and he again was still able to pass half the field despite zero set-up. I’m hoping there will be more speed for his late kick today, the presence of #9 Steak and Cheese should ensure an honest pace. This is a tough race so I really need at least 9/2 on Elusive Knight to make a wager, otherwise I’ll probably pass the race.
Race 5: #13 Mountain Breeze (5/2)
This race and the Summer Stakes are difficult to handicap in advance with so many horses cross-entered in both races. There should be more clarity come scratch time the morning of. There’s no doubt however that #13 Mountain Breeze (5/2) is clearly the horse to beat, no matter who shows up here. The Appleby runner is a half-sister to star turf runners Newspaperofrecord and Silver Knott, so she’s supposed to be a good one. She has kept superior company overseas and has twice placed in graded stakes races. She seems to have enough early speed (always a concern with the Euros) to keep this field within reach, and it’s not like there are any world beaters in this race. She’ll be a short price and for good reason.
A few entered out of the local prep, but the winner was clearly the best horse in there and wasn’t entered. Others in the field have to answer questions about surface and class. I guess the longshot I would use underneath would be #11 Vixen (10-1). She actually ran very well to be third on debut, despite a ton of trouble, and a merry-go-round pace scenario. That race came back live with four next out winners. She then got a soft trip going two turns, but she did what she was supposed to do and crushed by nearly five lengths. It’s encouraging that the three horses to run out of there have all improved their figures anywhere from 3 to 15 points. Class test for sure, but I won’t be surprised when she gives a good account of herself.
Race 6: #2 Elysian Field (15-1)
This is probably the best betting race on the card, a field of fourteen fillies and mares line up to go two turns on the synthetic with a Grade 3 winning status on the line. This is another race where I’d be hesitant to take too short of a price on anybody, just because I think it’s so wide open. I would be surprised if #2 Elysian Field (15-1) goes off at this price, but even if the price gets cut in half I think that would be value. I’m not too worried about those recents races on the grass as she’s clearly a better runner on the synthetic, as that 0 for 6 grass record would indicate. And while that two back speed figure might be a little lower than I would like, it’s important to note the pace was very soft that day and she actually did really well to chase down Spansive, who was completely loose on the front end. Spansive came back to win last weekend, further flattering the two back performance of Elysian Field. She’s never missed the exacta over this racetrack and it really wasn’t that long ago that she finished second in the King’s Plate. There is plenty of pace to flatter the late rally, it’ll be up to Civaci to navigate traffic.
Race 7: #6 Cinderella’s Dream (2-1)
The veteran #2 Moira (7/5) or the up-and-comer #6 Cinderella’s Dream (2-1)? I prefer #6 Cinderella’s Dream, assuming these prices hold. No real knocks against Moira, who ran massive in last year’s Breeders Cup to finish third to a couple of European monsters. And she’s come back this year with two super efforts as well, I’m just surprised at her “lack of success” over this turf course. Yes she’s a Grade 2 winner over this course, but she’s been beaten at a very short price on four separate occasions and I think she may prefer a firmer turf course.
Cinderella’s Dream was completely against the raceflow in her American debut in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and she still won that race comfortably in the end. She then came back at Saratoga and once again was super impressive winning the Saratoga Oaks at a very short price. Buick only asked her to run in the final furlong and she immediately closed the gap and ran away from Kathryn Marissa, who came back to win a $1.5 million race at Kentucky Downs with authority. Maybe she’s a tad light on figures, but that doesn’t concern me as much for a closer that has her turn of foot. She’s unbeaten at this one-turn configuration and the slight stretch-out should only be to her benefit. Once again, I’m going with the Euros.
Race 8: #4 J P Hellish (2-1)
#4 J P Hellish (2-1) from off the pace? Or #5 Ron’s Gizmo (3-1) from way off the pace? There’s a huge amount of speed entered in here and I’ll be shocked if they aren’t sizzling on the front end. This plays right into the hands of the two favorites. The call goes to the more reliable runner in #4 J P Hellish (2-1), even at a shorter price. He’s recently defeated ‘Gizmo on two separate occasions and I’m starting to wonder if Gizmo just needs to go further than this. He’s had two consecutive perfect trips against similar fields and hasn’t been able to capitalize so I’m not sure how I can back him in this spot. J P has the best speed figures and his best races have all come when the pace is hot like it will be today. It was just three races back when he was narrowly defeated by graded stakes foes and he followed that up with a strong victory last time after pressing a hot pace throughout. Either of those two recent synthetic tries would probably be good enough and really any of his seven races over this track make him tough.
Race 9: #9 Al Qudra (3-1)
Surprise! Grade 1 race on turf and for the third time today I’m going with Charlie Appleby. I was pretty underwhelmed with the local prep for this race, #6 Cairo Caper (8-1) won that race from off the pace, but I find it difficult to envision him outkicking the two Euros in this spot. #4 First Resort (4-1) is fast, but unproven on the grass. #10 New Century (6-1) is the “other” Euro, but he’s already been defeated by the favorite twice. #3 Vixen (10-1) is one I discussed in the filly race, but I’d prefer her in the other spot where she only has to outkick one Euro rather than two.
#9 Al Qudra (3-1) is the clear horse to beat. It took him a couple of tries to get acclimated to racing, but he’s really turned the corner in his last three starts. His one race around a bend was a comfortable victory after pressing the pace on the synthetic. He then ran respectably at Ascot when beaten just a length, and followed that up with a comfortable victory over today’s rival New Century. The last two efforts came on firmer ground that he’s likely to see for Saturday and it appears he’s got enough tactical speed to not have to close from the clouds.
Race 10: #2 Naval Power (1-1)
Anddddd one last time today I’ll be backing Appleby as I think it’s very possible he sweeps these four Grade 1’s on the card. Both of those figures #2 Naval Power (1-1) earned in America are good enough to win this race and several horses from the Churchill races have actually come back and jumped up a few points. There is plenty of pace to flatter his rally and he’s got the best late pace figures in the field by a comfortable margin. He’ll be super tough if he’s able to replicate any of his last four races and just might be the shortest priced favorite of the whole day.
Race 11: #3 I’m a Gambler (3-1)
I’m a big of #7 Patches O’ Houlihan (1-1), but I think he might get beat today. Both of his losses came when he was unable to make the front end and there are some very fast horses drawn to his inside. I won’t be shocked if he wins, but I’ll make him prove he can rate at a very short price. #3 I’m a Gambler (3-1) is the logical alternative to the favorite. He was narrowly defeated by Patches’ a few weeks back, but arguably ran better. He was towards the back of the pack chasing the loose leader, made a move into contention nearing the top of the stretch, and just barely ran out of gas in the final stages. Nothing wrong with finishing half a length behind the top two sprinters on this circuit, and today he should get a more favorable set-up. He also gets a rider upgrade to Civaci and I think this slight cutback to six furlongs should hit him right between the eyes.
Race 12: #10 Souped Up (7/2)
One last chance for #10 Souped Up (7/2) going a route of ground? He’s yet to win a race in three tries going two turns, but it’s not like he’s been disgraced in those outings. And he’s done really well at elongated sprint distances that can sometimes be a better test of stamina. I love that he’s come back as a four year old and has put together a trio of races with much improved speed figures including a strong second to Patches O’ Houlihan. His sprint speed should serve him well in here, especially from the outside draw where’s going to be forced to send early. It doesn’t appear there’s an abundance of early pace signed on so if he can break cleanly and get forward, he could take this field a long way.
