2026 Breeders’ Cup Classic: Narrative Past Performances, Picks & History

ITM Staff Pick

Forever Young is the best horse in the race and the one to beat, but at 2/1 you’re paying full price for that. Knightsbridge is the one we want. He went from one-turn miler to two-turn monster this summer, winning the Monmouth Cup by 10¼ lengths and the 1¼-mile Pacific Classic by 6¼, and our numbers make him a much bigger chance than his 9/2 morning line.

The worry is the pace. Napoleon Solo and Magnitude want to be forward too, so Luis Saez has to get the trip right from post 7. Use Forever Young underneath. Sovereignty is coming off a 12-week layoff, so we’ll take a stand against him at 5/2.

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Post 1 · T: Daisuke Takayanagi · J: Kazushi Kimura · ML 30/1

The forgotten man from the 2024 Kentucky Derby. T O Password ran fifth that day behind Mystik Dan, two spots behind a colt called Forever Young, who has since become the best dirt horse on the planet. They meet again here, and the gap between them has only grown. Since heading home to Japan, T O Password has won three of nine, including a minor one-mile stakes in May, and his last start was a third in a Group 3. America's Best Racing said a win here would be a shock to rank with Arcangues, and it's hard to argue. There is one note worth filing: his connections have said he can lose interest when he takes kickback, and from the rail in an eight-horse field, dirt in the face is a real possibility. He draws post 1 under Kazushi Kimura at 30/1 on the morning line.

Post 2 · T: Bill Mott · J: Junior Alvarado · ML 5/2

Unfinished business. Sovereignty won the 2025 Kentucky Derby and Travers for Godolphin and Bill Mott, then got sick and was scratched from last year's Classic. The 2026 comeback started slowly, with a second in the Oaklawn Handicap and a flat third in the Stephen Foster, 5¼ lengths behind Magnitude. Then came the Whitney, a 4¾-length romp that looked like the old horse. A hoof abscess knocked him out of the Jockey Club Gold Cup, so this is his first start in 12 weeks. Mott says the colt has done enough work, but the layoff is a question. Junior Alvarado, who calls him a once-in-a-lifetime horse, stays on from post 2. At 5/2 on the morning line he's the second choice, and you're paying for the Whitney version showing up.

Post 3 · T: Cherie DeVaux · J: Jose Ortiz · ML 5/1

The dual classic winner. Golden Tempo came from the clouds to win the Kentucky Derby, making Cherie DeVaux the first woman to train a Derby winner, then backed it up in the Belmont five weeks later. A summer illness cost him the Jim Dandy, and he trained straight into the Travers, where he ran third behind Leading Change and Napoleon Solo without looking quite himself. DeVaux blamed the trip rather than the layoff. The profile is simple. He's a deep closer who, as DeVaux puts it, simply needs the race to fall his way. A Classic with several horses wanting the lead could set it up for him, and Jose Ortiz, who says he always knew this was his Derby horse, is back aboard. Post 3 and 5/1 on the morning line. DeVaux's own read in September: he's improving, "but he's going to have to take a big step forward."

Post 4 · T: Gustavo Delgado · J: Javier Castellano · ML 10/1

The late bloomer with blinkers. The Puma was one of the best 3-year-olds of the spring. He won the Tampa Bay Derby and lost the Florida Derby by a nose, but a leg abscess scratched him from the Kentucky Derby. He ran fourth in both the Haskell and the Travers, then Gustavo Delgado added blinkers for the Pennsylvania Derby and everything clicked. Javier Castellano had him eighth early, swung him six wide and went by to win by a half-length, his first Grade 1. The Delgado barn has been in Lexington working him over the track, and Castellano likes what he feels and thinks the colt has taken to this track. He's a come-from-behind type, so he'll need the leaders to come back to him, but at 10/1 from post 4 he's the improving 3-year-old in the field.

Post 5 · T: Yoshito Yahagi · J: Ryusei Sakai · ML 2/1

The defending champion and the best dirt horse in the world. Forever Young won last year's Classic, opened 2026 with a repeat win in the Saudi Cup, and then lost the Dubai World Cup by a length to Magnitude. That's the one blemish, and he gets a crack at revenge here. He came to New York for his prep and won the Jockey Club Gold Cup by 3¼ lengths, and Yoshito Yahagi said afterward, "I think I will never see a horse like this again in my life." He has earned more than $32 million, and a win would put him alongside Tiznow as a back-to-back Classic winner. Ryusei Sakai rides from post 5. At 2/1 on the morning line he's the deserved favorite, and the barn even switched to an American-style breeze this month to sharpen him.

Post 6 · T: Steve Asmussen · J: Flavien Prat · ML 6/1

The only horse to beat Forever Young this year. Magnitude did it by a length in the Dubai World Cup in March, then came home and won the Stephen Foster, 5¼ lengths ahead of Sovereignty. Then Saratoga happened again. He ran sixth in the Whitney, beaten 15¼ lengths, and Steve Asmussen points out that the two worst races of his life have both come at the Spa. "Good news is the Breeders' Cup is not run here." No Classic winner this century has come in off an unplaced finish, according to America's Best Racing, so that's the hurdle. Asmussen has trained him up to this off the Whitney, the same road map that worked before Dubai, and loves what he's seen at Keeneland. With Jose Ortiz, his Dubai rider, on Golden Tempo, Flavien Prat picks up the ride from post 6. He's 6/1 on the morning line.

Post 7 · T: Bill Mott · J: Luis Saez · ML 9/2

The miler who learned to go long. Knightsbridge was a one-turn freak for most of his career, and Junior Alvarado rated him the top miler in America after the Gulfstream Park Mile. Bill Mott kept asking whether he could go two turns. The answer came in July, when he won the Monmouth Cup by 10¼ lengths, and again in August, when he ran away with the 1¼-mile Pacific Classic by 6¼ lengths, fast enough that Mott compared the fractions to Siphon and Cigar. America's Best Racing had him earmarked for the Dirt Mile, and Mott said in mid-October that his two Godolphin colts could split up, but the team chose the Classic. Alvarado stays with Sovereignty, so Luis Saez rides from post 7. At 9/2 on the morning line he brings serious speed to a race where several want the lead.

Post 8 · T: Chad Summers · J: John Velazquez · ML 15/1

The forgotten classic winner. Napoleon Solo won the Preakness, then ran second in both the Haskell and the Travers. In the Travers he finished in front of Golden Tempo, and America's Best Racing suggested he might be the most underrated U.S. classic winner in years. Chad Summers thought he showed real courage in defeat at 10 furlongs in the Travers and wanted to give him another crack at the distance. He could have taken an easier spot, but Summers isn't interested, saying his team has never ducked anyone and won't begin now. He breaks from the far outside, post 8, with John Velazquez. Our pace projection makes him the most likely early leader in a race with several speed horses, so the trip will matter. He's 15/1 on the morning line.