2026 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile: Narrative Past Performances, Picks & History

Line: David Aragona’s pre-entry odds (DRF, Oct. 22), set before the draw and before some horses withdrew. We’ll switch to the post-draw line as soon as it’s published.

ITM Staff Pick

This is one of the biggest overlays on our numbers all weekend. Lord Fons is Japan’s dirt-mile hope, and he’s had a career year: he won the Negishi Stakes at Tokyo in February and his first Jpn1, the Sakitama Hai, in June.

Both wins came at about seven furlongs, so the mile is a step up on paper, but Shogo Yasuda thinks two turns will suit him and calls him “very calm.” Kazuo Yokoyama rides from post 6. Further Ado, 2-for-2 at Keeneland, is the main danger.

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Post 1 · T: Brad Cox · J: Flavien Prat · Line 3/1

The horse who loves this place. Further Ado is 2-for-2 at Keeneland, and not by small margins. He broke his maiden here by 20 lengths last October and won the Blue Grass by 11 in April. "He obviously likes Keeneland," Brad Cox said. Then came a bumpy middle stretch: 11th as the Kentucky Derby favorite, a bounce-back win in the Matt Winn, then fifth in the Haskell on a sloppy track after losing a shoe. His last start was a strong one, second by a half-length to The Puma in the Pennsylvania Derby. Spendthrift had been leaning toward the Classic, with the Dirt Mile as a fallback, and he lands here, cutting back to a mile around two turns. Cox doesn't buy the knock on his consistency: "I think he's pretty consistent." Flavien Prat, who rode him at Parx, has the rail.

Post 2 · T: Bill Mott · J: Junior Alvarado · Line 15/1

The Sprint qualifier who'd rather go longer. T Kraft won the Vosburgh at Belmont Park on October 1 by a nose, his first graded stakes win, and that earned him a free spot in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. His connections passed on it. Owner Lee Einsidler said after the race that six furlongs "is a little sharp" for him, and Bill Mott has him in the Dirt Mile instead. The recent form is solid. Before the Vosburgh he dead-heated for second in the Grade 1 Forego at Saratoga, three-quarters of a length behind Hymn, and Einsidler says he keeps improving at 4. He was a $110,000 Keeneland September yearling and was foaled and raised in Kentucky at Hidden Brook Farm. The question is whether his seven-furlong form carries around two turns. Junior Alvarado, who won the Vosburgh aboard him, rides from post 2.

Post 3 · T: John Sadler · J: Joel Rosario · Line 10/1

The 2024 winner, back for another crack. Full Serrano won the 2024 Dirt Mile at Del Mar for John Sadler and Joel Rosario, and the same team is back together. Last year's defense went wrong when he chased a hot pace and faded to fifth. The Argentine-bred is 7 now, and his 2026 form has had some hard luck in it. He was a distant third in the Pegasus World Cup, then stumbled to his knees at the start of the Oaklawn Mile and still rallied for fourth. Sadler insists he'd have won that race fairly comfortably. Foot trouble kept him out of the San Diego Handicap, and he came back to run third behind Knightsbridge in the Pacific Classic in August. He has tactical speed, and Sadler doesn't want him too far back, and he won't be dropping toward the rear of the pack. Rosario rides from post 3.

Post 4 · T: Ethan West · J: Jaime Torres · Line 8/1

The $2,500 bargain who never stops trying. Chunk of Gold cost just $2,500 as a yearling and has now earned more than $1 million. He has finished in the top three in 12 of his 13 starts, the exception a ninth from post 17 in last year's Kentucky Derby. The trouble is turning seconds into wins. This year he has been the bridesmaid: second in a Churchill allowance, second by a neck to Bishops Bay in the Iselin and second to Dragoon Guard in the Lukas Classic. Ethan West says that last one came down to the trip, when "we got pressured by a longer shot." Our pace projection makes him the clear favorite to make the lead here, where this front-runner wants to be. West likes one observer's take: even if he doesn't win, whoever beats him is going to have to work for it. Jaime Torres rides from post 4.

Post 5 · T: Lonnie Briley · J: Juan Vargas · Line 10/1

The small-barn Grade 2 winner. Coal Battle put Lonnie Briley's Ellis Park-based stable in the spotlight last year, winning the Smarty Jones and the Rebel at Oaklawn before running 11th in the Kentucky Derby. The son of Coal Front has now banked more than $1.4 million from 16 starts. He comes in off a big effort, a head second to Bishops Bay in the Ack Ack at Churchill on September 26. He wasn't even in the field at pre-entry, sitting second on the list of horses left out, but he made the final 11. His last work at Keeneland was quicker than his trainer wanted. Briley had hoped for 1:01 or 1:02 and got 1:00 flat, though he liked how easily the colt did it. Juan Vargas rides from post 5.

Post 6 · T: Shogo Yasuda · J: Kazuo Yokoyama · Line 15/1

Japan's dirt-mile hope. Lord Fons is a son of Lord Kanaloa, and his trainer has a personal connection to the family: Shogo Yasuda was Lord Kanaloa's assistant and work rider. The 6-year-old has had a career year, winning the Grade 3 Negishi Stakes at Tokyo in February and then his first Jpn1, the Sakitama Hai at Urawa, in June. Both of those wins came at 1,400 meters, about seven furlongs, so a mile is a step up on paper. Yasuda thinks the Keeneland layout helps, though: "the track is two turns so that should suit him." He also judged the Sprint a touch too short for him, which is why he's here and not in the six-furlong race. Yasuda isn't worried about the trip either, noting that his veteran is a very relaxed type. Kazuo Yokoyama rides from post 6.

Post 7 · T: Vicki Oliver · J: John Velazquez · Line 6/1

The home-track horse at his best distance. Bracket Buster trains at Keeneland, broke his maiden here under John Velazquez, and finished second to Sovereignty in last year's Travers. He then missed nine months, but came back in August to win the West Virginia Governor's Stakes by 15 lengths. That effort was big enough that Vicki Oliver skipped a quick return in the Charles Town Classic and pointed him toward this race instead. She has always thought a mile is his game, and that 1⅛ miles is a stretch. The 4-year-old son of Vekoma was outside the field at pre-entry but made it in when the final field was drawn. He has been breezing steadily over this track. Velazquez, back aboard, rides from post 7.

Post 8 · T: Peter Miller · J: Manuel Franco · Line 20/1

The mystery horse. Moonlight is one of two Peter Miller runners on Breeders' Cup Saturday, along with Liam Smith in the Sprint. He's owned by Tom Kagele and was bred by Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds, according to America's Best Racing. He was outside the field when pre-entries were announced, but the Daily Racing Form reported a few days later that he was headed for the Dirt Mile, and he drew in when the field was set. We couldn't find a word from the barn about him this fall, so he arrives as the least-known horse in the race. Manuel Franco rides from post 8.

Post 9 · T: Saffie Joseph Jr. · J: Edwin Gonzalez · Line 12/1

The Classic qualifier who chose the shorter route. Forged Steel earned a free spot in the Classic by winning the Goodwood at Santa Anita at 12-1 in September, but Saffie Joseph and the owners decided the Dirt Mile gives him the best chance to win. He's a colt with a high ceiling and a couple of head-scratchers. He won the Hollywood Gold Cup by 9½ lengths in May, then disappointed in the Suburban, where he stumbled and was rank, and in the Pacific Classic, where he chased a fast pace behind Knightsbridge. Joseph says he likes to be close but "doesn't have to lead," and he likes what he's seen since: "I see no regression since he returned from California." His final work was a half-mile in :47.80 at Saratoga. Edwin Gonzalez, who won the Goodwood aboard him, rides from post 9.

Post 10 · T: Brian Lynch · J: Luis Saez · Line 12/1

The miler. Owen Almighty went into the Ack Ack in September having finished first or second in all four of his starts at a mile, according to Churchill Downs. He won the R.A. Cowboy Jones Stakes at Ellis Park on August 9 by 1¼ lengths, and before that he rallied for second behind Nu What's New in the Grade 3 Hanshin at Churchill. The Ack Ack went to Bishops Bay, with Coal Battle a head back in second. The Lynch barn said before that race that the switch to two turns here should be no problem, believing he handles both configurations. He's a 4-year-old son of Speightstown with four wins from 14 starts, and he was on the outside looking in at pre-entry before drawing into the final field. Luis Saez rides from post 10.

Post 11 · T: Phil D'Amato · J: Tyler Gaffalione · Line 15/1

The 51-49 decision. Iron Man Cal won the Pat O'Brien at Del Mar on August 29 by a half-length, leading from the front, and that got him a free spot in this race. Phil D'Amato still went back and forth, pre-entering him in both the Dirt Mile and the Sprint. "We're 51-49 in favor of the Dirt Mile," he said in mid-October, and the Dirt Mile it is. The interesting part is how little dirt racing he has done. Going into October he had made just two starts on the surface, the Pat O'Brien win and a third in the San Diego Handicap, and he has also won on turf. He has four wins from 11 starts for Little Red Feather Racing and Madaket Stable, and he was bred by Brereton C. Jones, who also bred Chunk of Gold. Tyler Gaffalione rides from the far outside, post 11.