2026 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint: Narrative Past Performances, Picks & History

ITM Staff Pick

Ways and Means has been pointed at this race since June, when Chad Brown said he brought her back to win the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland. She’s won the Bed o’ Roses and then the Ballerina by 5½ lengths, and Brown says she runs well fresh.

R Disaster beat her in the Derby City Distaff and projects as the likeliest early leader, so she’s the main danger and the overlay on our numbers. But Ways and Means gets the nod in what’s billed as her final start. Flavien Prat rides from post 2.

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Post 1 · T: Michael McCarthy · J: Umberto Rispoli · ML 20/1

The filly with a story. Look Forward's debut win at Del Mar in November 2024 turned out to be the last win for trainer Ben Cecil, who died of cancer later that month. Owner J. Paul Reddam moved her to Michael McCarthy, a former Cecil assistant, and she rewarded them both. She won the Santa Ynez in January 2025, and then the Grade 2 Eight Belles at Churchill Downs on Oaks day, by 1¼ lengths at seven furlongs. That's this race's distance around one turn in Kentucky, and the filly who ran third that day, Evanescence, is in here too. McCarthy called the Eight Belles a great win for Reddam and everyone involved, and he was choked up as he said it. The daughter of Bolt d'Oro tuned up with five furlongs in 1:01.20, and Umberto Rispoli, her Eight Belles rider, breaks from the rail.

Post 2 · T: Chad Brown · J: Flavien Prat · ML 7/5

The farewell tour. Chad Brown said in June that the whole point of returning her to training was a Breeders' Cup win at Keeneland, and this is billed as the last start of her career before she's offered at public auction. It has been a bumpy road. She came out of the 2024 Filly & Mare Sprint at Del Mar with an ankle chip, and a fever scratched her from the 2025 Ballerina. R Disaster beat her in the Derby City Distaff on her return in May. Then she won the Grade 2 Bed o' Roses by a nose and took the Grade 1 Ballerina at Saratoga on Aug. 29 by 5½ lengths, with Kilwin second. She's 6-for-7 at Saratoga, and Brown is hoping she "can take her track to Keeneland." He also says she "runs so well fresh." The 5-year-old Klaravich homebred has Flavien Prat from post 2.

Post 3 · T: Robert Medina · J: John Velazquez · ML 30/1

Talented, and a handful. Praying won the Grade 3 Prioress and the Grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America in 2025, then came apart in this race at Del Mar. She acted up in the post parade and finished last of seven, and trainer Robbie Medina says John Velazquez told him the race was lost before she was even loaded into the gate. This year she ran fourth in the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland in April, and this month she tried to defend her TCA title and was beaten a neck by Evanescence. Distance is Medina's other worry. In April he said that unless she learns to settle, "seven furlongs is probably her max," and this race is seven furlongs. The 4-year-old Vekoma filly cost $410,000 as an OBS 2-year-old. Velazquez rides again from post 3. Watch her in the post parade.

Post 4 · T: Saffie Joseph Jr. · J: Tyler Gaffalione · ML 8/1

The overachiever. R Disaster started out as a claimer, and Saffie Joseph Jr. has turned her into a Grade 1 winner. She led all the way to take the Derby City Distaff at Churchill in May, beating Ways and Means, and Joseph says she has overachieved. Then a hind-foot problem cost her time, and Joseph ran her in the Ballerina regardless of the result, just to get her fitness back. Ways and Means won that day. In her next start, on Oct. 1, R Disaster won the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom at Belmont for the second straight year. Joseph is honest about the task: she needs to improve "to get back to her Churchill form," though he thinks that's possible. Our pace projection makes her the most likely early leader. Tyler Gaffalione, her Derby City Distaff rider, breaks from post 4.

Post 5 · T: Mike Maker · J: Ricardo Santana Jr. · ML 20/1

The closer in a field full of speed. Foie Gras was a $100,000 auction buy last December, and she paid off quickly for Mike Maker, winning two stakes in her first three starts for her new connections. Then she ran second in the Matron at Oaklawn and a close third in the Grade 3 Winning Colors at Churchill. Her best effort came in June in the Grade 2 Chicago at Churchill. She took the lead in upper stretch and held it until the final strides, when Eclatant caught her by a head. Evanescence was third. Ricardo Santana Jr. said the only thing she didn't do was win. The 4-year-old Volatile filly has a strong closing kick, which could matter if R Disaster and company go fast early. She has also won twice on the Churchill dirt. Santana stays aboard from post 5.

Post 6 · T: Phil D'Amato · J: Francisco Arrieta · ML 15/1

The veteran giant-killer. Majestic Oops needed 35 starts to land her first graded stakes, and she made it count. In March at Oaklawn, she won the Grade 2 Azeri at 1 1/16 miles, upsetting champion Nitrogen, who finished third. Three weeks before that, she had won the American Beauty at six furlongs. Her trainer at the time, Dan Ward, said she was effective at anything from six furlongs to a mile and a sixteenth, so seven shouldn't be a problem. Ward's key to the Azeri: Francisco Arrieta simply sat still on her and got her to settle. Arrieta keeps the ride. The 6-year-old Majestic Harbor mare has since moved to Phil D'Amato, who has been building her up at Santa Anita. After an easy five-eighths in mid-October, he promised a tougher one the following week. She breaks from post 6.

Post 7 · T: Eddie Kenneally · J: Luis Saez · ML 15/1

The course specialist. Evanescence is 3-for-3 at Keeneland, and the latest of those wins was her best. In the Grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America this month she was fifth of seven after a half-mile, then rallied to beat defending champion Praying by a neck. It was her first graded stakes win and a Win and You're In. She has run six times in 2026 and has never finished worse than third, including thirds in the Chicago and the Twin Bridges. Eddie Kenneally thinks seven furlongs is actually her best distance, and she ran third behind Look Forward in the 2025 Eight Belles at that trip. The 4-year-old Munnings filly was a $250,000 Keeneland September yearling. She races for Green Lantern Stables, who are chasing their third Grade 1 winner. Luis Saez rides from post 7.

Post 8 · T: Saffie Joseph Jr. · J: Edwin Gonzalez · ML 20/1

The Oaklawn allowance mare turned Gulfstream speedball. Kerry's Kiss kept running a mile and a sixteenth at Oaklawn and, as Mark Cornett tells it, kept flashing speed and then tiring in the final sixteenth. Cornett bought her privately to cut her back to one turn, and Saffie Joseph Jr. added an extension blinker. She has won three straight at Gulfstream since. The last of them was the Grade 3 Princess Rooney in September, where she led all the way, beat Simply Joking by 1½ lengths and earned a spot here. Joseph is realistic, calling this race "a reality check," but he liked her final half-mile, which she did in hand and galloped out strongly. Edwin Gonzalez says she can sit behind the pace if needed. The 4-year-old Vino Rosso filly has Gonzalez from post 8.

Post 9 · T: Richard Baltas · J: Juan Hernandez · ML 8/1

The California queen, with unfinished business. Sweet Azteca was scratched from last year's race with a foot injury, and Richard Baltas has managed her carefully since. She came back from more than 10 months off in July and won the Grade 2 Great Lady M at Los Alamitos by 1¼ lengths. That made her the first three-time winner of the race, and Nooni, who is in here too, was third. In August she won the Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo at Del Mar by 4¾ lengths, her third straight win in that race too. That left her 9-for-11 lifetime. Baltas has praised how well she breaks and her natural speed, so she should have a say early. The 6-year-old Sharp Azteca mare is a homebred for Pamela Ziebarth. Juan Hernandez, her Rancho Bernardo rider, breaks from post 9.

Post 10 · T: Michael McCarthy · J: Manuel Franco · ML 30/1

The consistent one. Simply Joking is a Practical Joke filly from Michael McCarthy's barn. Through early September she had finished on the board in all but one of her last six starts, all of them graded stakes. That run included a win in the Santa Maria at Santa Anita and a third in the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch at Del Mar. Then McCarthy shipped her to Gulfstream for the Princess Rooney, where she was favored. She ran second, 1½ lengths behind Kerry's Kiss, who led all the way, and she meets that rival again here. She has been training well since. Her half-mile in :47.60 in October was the third-fastest of 91 at the distance that morning. She's one of two McCarthy runners in the race, along with Look Forward. Manuel Franco rides from post 10.

Post 11 · T: Bob Baffert · J: Jose Ortiz · ML 4/1

The 3-year-old who found her distance. Explora was second in last year's Juvenile Fillies at Del Mar. In the Kentucky Oaks in May she bore the brunt of the early pace pressure, as Bob Baffert saw it, and still finished a close fourth. After that Baffert decided to keep her at one turn, and it paid off. She won the Leslie's Lady at Churchill in June and then the Grade 1 Test at Saratoga by five lengths, both at seven furlongs. Her only loss since came in the Grade 3 Dogwood at Churchill in September, where she ran second to Conceit. Flavien Prat thought that from the inside she "might not have seen the filly coming three wide." After the Test she had won six of 10 starts and earned more than $1.5 million. Jose Ortiz picks up the ride from post 11.

Post 12 · T: Rusty Arnold · J: Javier Castellano · ML 8/1

The $3 million filly. BBN Racing and Rick Howard went to $3 million for Kilwin at Keeneland's November sale, and she arrived with a Grade 1 already on her résumé, the Test at Saratoga. She also won the Leslie's Lady at Churchill as a 3-year-old. After 10 months away, she returned in the Twin Bridges at Ellis Park on July 19 and won by 2¼ lengths. Evanescence, who is in here too, was third. Rusty Arnold pointed her to the Grade 1 Ballerina next, and she ran second there, 5½ lengths behind Ways and Means. That was only her second start back from the long break. She's a 4-year-old Twirling Candy filly and a half-sister to Grade 2-winning turf sprinter One Timer. Javier Castellano rides from post 12.

Post 13 · T: Bob Baffert · J: Mario Gutierrez · ML 30/1

The former Baffert wonder filly. Nooni was a high-priced auction buy who won her debut at Santa Anita by 9½ lengths in June 2024. Afterward, Bob Baffert said, "Sometimes a freak will come out of the woodwork." She followed up as a convincing winner of the Grade 3 Sorrento at Del Mar and ran second in the Oak Leaf, and Baffert said she had "real class." Fast forward to this July, when she ran third in the Grade 2 Great Lady M at Los Alamitos behind Sweet Azteca, a rival again here. She has the Baffert stamp and the early talent. The question is whether she's back to that 2-year-old level. Mario Gutierrez rides from the far outside, post 13.