2026 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies: Narrative Past Performances, Picks & History

Line: David Aragona’s pre-entry odds (DRF, Oct. 22), set before the draw and before some horses withdrew. We’ll switch to the post-draw line as soon as it’s published.

ITM Staff Pick

Emphatic is 3-for-3 and has already done what this race asks: she won the Alcibiades over this track at this trip, leading every step. Most of her rivals have never been 1 1/16 miles, let alone at Keeneland.

The lead may be harder to come by this time, with Miss Monica and Life Changing both projected forward, but Brendan Walsh says she’s just as happy to sit and stalk. Tyler Gaffalione stays aboard from post 10. If you want a price to go with her, Domain Expansion rates as an overlay on our numbers.

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Post 1 · T: Brad Cox · J: Manuel Franco · Line 20/1

The battle-tested one. Scarlett Begonia won her debut at Ellis Park in July, ran third in the Adirondack at Saratoga, then did things the hard way in the Pocahontas at Churchill Downs. Brad Cox says she did the hard work on the front end against a fairly contested pace, and she still won the photo for second behind Manuka Honey. Cox says she now has more seasoning and foundation under her, and her works since have been good, including five furlongs in 1:00.80 in company with stablemate Foxiest at Churchill on Oct. 23. This is her first try around two turns, and the rail is a tricky draw for a filly who likes to be involved early. Manuel Franco rides from post 1. She has finished in the money in all three starts.

Post 2 · T: Leonard Powell · J: Adrian Escobedo · Line 8/1

The Oak Leaf shocker. Domain Expansion went into the Oak Leaf at Santa Anita as a maiden whose only start was a second on the Del Mar turf. She came out of it a Grade 2 winner, drawing off by about seven lengths at a big price and beating the even-money favorite, Quattro Passi, who finished third. That earned her a Win and You're In, and it was the first graded stakes win for jockey Adrian Escobedo, who stays aboard from post 2. Leonard Powell says that as soon as she started breezing at Del Mar she showed things most 2-year-olds don't. She was a $130,000 Keeneland September yearling by Speaker's Corner. Powell calls her a big filly who should develop into a very nice horse, and he thinks there's still upside. Her rider agrees that she's only getting started.

Post 3 · T: Brad Cox · J: Junior Alvarado · Line 15/1

Blue blood, one win. Foxiest is an LNJ Foxwoods homebred by Gun Runner out of the champion Covfefe, so pedigree isn't the question. Experience is. She stumbled at the start of her Saratoga debut in August and still came running for third. Then she broke her maiden going 7½ furlongs at Churchill Downs on Sept. 27, a performance that made her a TDN Rising Star. Brad Cox says she's "a little more laid-back" than stablemate Scarlett Begonia, and the two finished their preparation together with a five-furlong work at Churchill on Oct. 23. Cox's reasoning for running is simple: if they think she can compete with this group, she's worth a shot in the Breeders' Cup. Junior Alvarado rides from post 3. Going from a maiden win to a two-turn Grade 1 is a big jump, but she's bred to make it.

Post 4 · T: Mark Hennig · J: John Velazquez · Line 15/1

The one who's been waiting for two turns. All four of Rum Twist's starts have been around one turn, and she's still been very effective. She broke her maiden at Saratoga at the third try, then ran second in the Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont Park, 2¾ lengths behind Dotsy. She stalked from fourth that day and raced a little greenly late. Mark Hennig thought she was a bit keen in a race that played out more like a one-turn sprint, and he has been saying since that "it will be the further the better for her." Her second dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winners Daredevil and Albertus Maximus. This will be Hennig's 15th Breeders' Cup starter, and he says she almost seems to know she got beat. John Velazquez rides from post 4.

Post 5 · T: Bob Baffert · J: Flavien Prat · Line 5/2

From $32,000 bust to Grade 1 star. Miss Monica didn't sell for $32,000 as a foal and brought $45,000 as a yearling. Then Mike Pegram, Karl Watson and Paul Weitman, the Three Amigos, paid $850,000 for her at OBS in the spring. She has repaid them quickly. She's 2-for-2, and she won the Del Mar Debutante by 6¼ lengths as the 2/5 favorite, Bob Baffert's 13th win in that race. Baffert's read afterward: "She's a big filly and I think two turns should be even better." Pegram compares her to a smooth Kentucky bourbon. Our pace projection has her and Life Changing as the likeliest early leaders in a race where several fillies want the lead. Juan Hernandez rode her at Del Mar. Flavien Prat takes over from post 5.

Post 6 · T: George Weaver · J: Edgard Zayas · Line 20/1

The maiden who's already hit the board in a Grade 1. Revenge of the Sis hasn't won a race, but she's been third in both her starts, and one of those was in the Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont Park. She finished four lengths behind Dotsy and 1¼ lengths behind Rum Twist, who is also in this field. Those two thirds have earned $70,000 for George Weaver and her owners, CJ Thoroughbreds and John Ropes. She's a daughter of Girvin and, like Rum Twist, she comes out of a one-turn race. Winning a Breeders' Cup race while still a maiden would take a big step forward, but the Frizette puts her within range of at least one rival here. Edgard Zayas rides from post 6.

Post 7 · T: Mark Casse · J: Jose Ortiz · Line 15/1

Perfect on dirt, but can she stretch out? Lexi's Charm is the less-heralded of Mark Casse's two fillies in this race, and she's 2-for-2 on dirt. She won a 5½-furlong maiden at Saratoga on July 17. She then ran fourth on the grass in the Bolton Landing, her only stakes start, before coming back to the dirt at Keeneland on Oct. 7, when she won a six-furlong starter allowance by 12 lengths. That's one of the most eye-catching margins in the field, but it came at a much lower level and over a sprint trip. This is a jump to 1 1/16 miles and Grade 1 company in one go. She's by Lexitonian and races for Bill and Liz Poston Racing and Brad Smith. Jose Ortiz rides from post 7. She has already won over this surface.

Post 8 · T: Brian Lynch · J: Luis Saez · Line 10/1

Unbeaten, and she keeps finding more. Manuka Honey is 3-for-3. She won her Churchill Downs debut in June by 7¼ lengths, took the Ellis Park Debutante by seven, then stretched out to a mile for the Pocahontas. She had to run down dueling leaders there and still went clear by two lengths, with Scarlett Begonia second. Brian Lynch said the filly lays it down every time, and Luis Saez said she kept finding more for him late. The win made her the early leader on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks. She's an Upstart filly bred by co-owner Terry Hamilton. After that race Lynch said he was "excited to see her stretch out a little bit more," and he gets his wish at 1 1/16 miles. Saez stays aboard from post 8. She's one of three unbeaten fillies in the field, with Emphatic and Miss Monica.

Post 9 · T: Todd Pletcher · J: Joel Rosario · Line 30/1

The maiden in the deep end. Badittude, an Uncle Mo filly racing for Mike Repole, is still looking for her first win, and Todd Pletcher is candid about why. She has worn blinkers in all her training because she looks around at everything, and last time out she drew the rail, inherited the lead and was "a bit green" on the front end. Pletcher said that maiden was run fast, so the form may be better than it looks, and he thinks she's "much better with a target." She should get one here. This field has plenty of speed, so she can sit and chase instead of doing the work herself. She's the second Repole-Pletcher filly in the race, alongside Life Changing. Joel Rosario rides from post 9. It's a huge ask off a maiden loss.

Post 10 · T: Brendan Walsh · J: Tyler Gaffalione · Line 9/5

The unbeaten Pennsylvania-bred. Emphatic is 3-for-3 for Brendan Walsh, and the latest of those wins came over this track in the Alcibiades, a Win and You're In, where she led every step of the 1 1/16 miles. Walsh says she broke about a half-length clear of everybody that day, and the others more or less left her alone on the lead. She may not get that luxury here, but Walsh doesn't think she needs it: if somebody else wants to go, she's just as happy to sit back and stalk. As for the breeding, Walsh doesn't care what bred she is as long as she can run. She has already won at the trip and over the track, which most of these can't say. Tyler Gaffalione, her Alcibiades rider, stays on from post 10. Walsh's bottom line: he can't see her finishing far away.

Post 11 · T: Mark Casse · J: Javier Castellano · Line 15/1

The turf star trying dirt. Voyager won the Grade 1 Natalma at Woodbine under Javier Castellano in September. That race is a Win and You're In for the Juvenile Fillies Turf, but Mark Casse is taking her to the dirt instead. That's less strange than it sounds. Her first two starts were dirt sprints, and she was second in both, including the Schuylerville behind Harper's Corner. Casse rated those dirt races as good ones, and her final work convinced him: "she worked as good as a horse can work on the dirt." She switched to turf at Saratoga in August and won a 1 1/16-mile maiden by a nose, her first try around two turns. She's a Justify filly out of the stakes-winning Chart and was a $300,000 Keeneland January purchase for D. J. Stable. Castellano stays on from post 11.

Post 12 · T: Todd Pletcher · J: Juan Hernandez · Line 30/1

The million-dollar reboot. Life Changing cost Mike Repole $1,025,000 at Fasig-Tipton Saratoga, and she's a half-sister to Preakness winner Seize the Grey. Her Saratoga debut lived up to the price tag, and Repole called her "really, really special." Then the Spinaway went badly wrong. She raced with the eventual winner Summer Starlet early, then retreated and finished last of seven, and Todd Pletcher said, "I don't really have an explanation." She has been training back the right way. Pletcher called her Oct. 23 breeze "one of her better breezes," and his goal is simple: get her back to the level of her maiden win, which would give her a chance. Juan Hernandez rides from the far outside, post 12, and she'll need to use her natural speed to get position from out there.