2026 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile: Narrative Past Performances, Picks & History

Line: David Aragona’s pre-entry odds (DRF, Oct. 22), set before the draw and before some horses withdrew. We’ll switch to the post-draw line as soon as it’s published.

ITM Staff Pick

Hughes is 4-for-4 by a combined 24½ lengths, and the American Pharoah showed Bob Baffert something new: he can sit behind horses and still finish. That matters here, because Gaudreau and He Is No Lie both project near the front.

American History and Coach Pope both have the edge of a race over this track, and they’re the ones to use underneath. But Hughes is the class of the field, and our numbers make him a fair price even as the favorite. Flavien Prat rides from post 5.

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Post 1 · T: Todd Pletcher · J: Luis Saez · Line 20/1

The million-dollar maiden winner. Damavand is a son of Not This Time who cost Amo Racing $1 million as a yearling, and getting him to the races took some patience. In September Todd Pletcher said he'd had "some little minor setbacks along the way." He finally put it together on Oct. 4, winning a 1 1/16-mile maiden by a neck at Keeneland, so he's already won over this track at this distance. That's still a thin résumé for a Grade 1. Pletcher's case for running is honest: Damavand kept up with stablemate American History in a work, and that was reason enough to try him, even in what was already an eight-horse field. Luis Saez rides from the rail. It's a big jump in class, but he has won over the track and trip, which some of these colts haven't.

Post 2 · T: Chad Brown · J: Manuel Franco · Line 8/1

The hockey tribute with speed to burn. Gaudreau is named in memory of the late NHL star Johnny Gaudreau, and on debut at Saratoga in August he beat both U. S. S. Valor and Coach Pope. The rematch with U. S. S. Valor in the Champagne went the other way. Gaudreau contested the pace and finished second, 6½ lengths behind, and Chad Brown said he had to rethink things as a trainer and work out what went wrong. U. S. S. Valor skips this race, so Gaudreau is the colt who beat him. This is his first try around two turns, and Brown said afterward that it would be nice to see him with a target. He may not get one: our pace projection makes him the likeliest early leader in a race where several want to be forward. Manuel Franco rides from post 2.

Post 3 · T: Bob Baffert · J: Tyler Gaffalione · Line 6/1

The quieter half of the Baffert pair. Salahudin has done all his racing in Kentucky and hasn't lost yet. He won his Ellis Park debut by two lengths as the 1/2 favorite, went gate to wire in the Ellis Park Juvenile by 4½ lengths, then wore down He Is No Lie to win the Iroquois at Churchill Downs by a half-length. Bob Baffert said afterward that he's still very much a baby, and he likes what he sees down the road: "a true mile-and-a-quarter kind of horse." He's also a colt who tends to idle when he makes the lead too early, so timing matters. He's by Uncle Mo and runs for Zedan Racing. Florent Geroux and Jose Ortiz have ridden him so far. Tyler Gaffalione picks up the ride from post 3.

Post 4 · T: Jorge Delgado · J: Junior Alvarado · Line 30/1

The late developer with a classy big brother. Earth Song is a Justify half-brother to Blue Grass winner Further Ado, and Amo Racing bought him for $250,000 at the OBS March sale. He didn't debut until Sept. 7 at Monmouth Park, where he was a step slow out of the gate in a three-horse field and still won by 11¼ lengths. Jorge Delgado then threw him straight into the Champagne, where he finished fourth after U. S. S. Valor bumped him on the far turn. Before that race Delgado said he sees him as a late-developing 2-year-old who should appreciate more ground. He gets it here at 1 1/16 miles, along with only his third start. Junior Alvarado rides from post 4. He's the least experienced colt in the field, and the one with the most room to improve.

Post 5 · T: Bob Baffert · J: Flavien Prat · Line 6/5

The unbeaten one. Hughes, named for U.S. hockey star Jack Hughes, is 4-for-4 by a combined 24½ lengths. He won the Best Pal, gave Bob Baffert his 20th Del Mar Futurity, then stretched out to win the American Pharoah by six lengths, a Win and You're In. That last race showed Baffert something new: the colt got behind horses, which is exactly what he wanted to see. Baffert has also said the colt "does most of his running at the end," so he isn't a one-dimensional speed horse. A win would give Baffert a record-extending seventh Juvenile. Juan Hernandez rode him in the Best Pal and the American Pharoah. Flavien Prat takes over from post 5. He's the colt everyone else has to beat. In early October Baffert's hope was simply to get him here healthy, and he's here.

Post 6 · T: Todd Pletcher · J: John Velazquez · Line 9/2

The local hero. American History is unbeaten, and his biggest win came over this track in the Breeders' Futurity, a Win and You're In. He did plenty wrong that day. He broke slowly, took dirt going into the first turn and never switched leads, yet he still ran down Coach Pope to win by a length. Todd Pletcher thinks the race "should bring him forward," and he has kept the colt at Keeneland ever since. On Oct. 14 he worked a half-mile in :47, the fastest of 30 that morning. His dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Vekoma, so two turns shouldn't be a problem. Pletcher doesn't see the home-track setup as a disadvantage. John Velazquez, aboard for the Futurity, stays on from post 6, and says he'll be delighted if the colt repeats that race.

Post 7 · T: Kenny McPeek · J: Jose Ortiz · Line 4/1

Named for a basketball coach, and twice the bridesmaid. Coach Pope is a Tapit colt named for University of Kentucky coach Mark Pope, who had to approve the name in writing. He has only lost to good ones. He was second to Gaudreau on debut at Saratoga, won a Churchill Downs maiden by 12½ lengths, then finished second to American History in the Breeders' Futurity over this track, beaten a length, with Q B Rocket a neck back in third. Kenny McPeek called him "the most talented horse I've ever brought to the Futurity." His final work at Keeneland was five furlongs in company with Real Goodbar, and McPeek's orders were to go "almost eyeball to eyeball." Jose Ortiz, his Futurity rider, stays on from post 7. He gets another shot at both colts who have beaten him.

Post 8 · T: Doug O'Neill · J: Joel Rosario · Line 15/1

The speedball from the West. He Is No Lie, from the first crop of Preakness winner Early Voting, won his Santa Anita debut by eight lengths as a 2/5 favorite in May. In June he lost the Bashford Manor at Churchill Downs by a head, a run Doug O'Neill's assistant Leandro Mora described as frighteningly fast. He was fourth behind Hughes in the Best Pal, then came back to Kentucky for the Iroquois. There he stalked in second, took over, and was caught late by Salahudin, losing by a half-length. The Iroquois preview called him the quickest horse in that field, so expect him to be forward again. He has finished first or second in three of his four starts. Joel Rosario, who rode him in the Iroquois, stays on from the outside, post 8.