2026 Breeders’ Cup Sprint: Narrative Past Performances, Picks & History

Line: David Aragona’s pre-entry odds (DRF, Oct. 22), set before the draw and before some horses withdrew. We’ll switch to the post-draw line as soon as it’s published.

ITM Staff Pick

Englishman is brilliant, but our numbers make him an underlay, and T O Elvis is the value. He won the Churchill Downs Stakes on Derby Day by 3¼ lengths in stakes-record time, Japan’s first winner there, and he did it off a six-month break.

He’s off a long layoff again, and that’s the worry. But it didn’t stop him last time. Ryusei Sakai, aboard at Churchill, rides from post 11. Liam Smith, the claimer turned Breeders’ Cup starter, is the other overlay on our numbers.

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Post 1 · T: David VanWinkle · J: Paco Lopez · Line 50/1

The speed of the speed. Mad House is a two-time graded stakes winner, taking the Gallant Bob at Parx last year and the Count Fleet Sprint at Oaklawn this spring. His summer was quieter, fifth in the Aristides and fourth in the Bing Crosby, before his trainer, David Van Winkle, brought him to Keeneland for the Phoenix on October 2 with a simple plan: run well and stay for the Breeders' Cup. He set the pace under pressure and held third behind Nakatomi and Little Thunder, so here he is. He also ran in last year's Sprint at Del Mar. Our pace projection makes him the clear favorite to be on the lead, and from the rail Paco Lopez won't have much choice but to send. It's the trainer's first season at Keeneland, and he's enjoying it, calling it a real thrill to have a horse here.

Post 2 · T: Ahmad bin Harmash · J: Connor Beasley · Line 15/1

The Dubai specialist comes home. Dark Saffron is Kentucky-bred, a $25,000 Keeneland September yearling, and he returns to Lexington as a two-time winner of the Dubai Golden Shaheen. In March he pressed the pace and beat Bentornato, last year's Breeders' Cup Sprint winner, by 1¾ lengths, a year after beating Nakatomi in the same race. Both of those Golden Shaheen wins were upsets, and they are his only stakes victories, so the question is whether he can reproduce Meydan form on an American dirt track against a deep field. The son of Flameaway sold for $120,000 as a 2-year-old to his current connections. We found no word from the stable about the trip to Keeneland, so he's something of an unknown quantity. Connor Beasley, who rode him in March, has the call from post 2.

Post 3 · T: Peter Miller · J: Manuel Franco · Line 15/1

The claimer turned Breeders' Cup starter. Liam Smith ran for a $50,000 tag at Del Mar on August 27 and won by 12 lengths, and Peter Miller claimed him that day. Two months later he's in a Grade 1. His first start for Miller was an allowance at Santa Anita on September 26, at the same 6½ furlongs, and he won that by 5½ lengths. Things have moved fast since. A 25 percent share of the 3-year-old is in this week's Keeneland Championship Sale, and as late as last Friday he was only fourth on the also-eligible list, with the Bet On Sunshine at Churchill on November 7 as his backup. He drew in. For all the speed, Miller says he's "a very laid back kind of horse." This is a huge class test against older horses. Manuel Franco rides from post 3.

Post 4 · T: Ron Moquett · J: Ricardo Santana Jr. · Line 15/1

The Forego winner who stuck to sprinting. Hymn had a breakout summer for Ron Moquett, winning three straight, including the De Francis Dash at Laurel, before Built ended the streak in the Vanderbilt. He bounced back in the Forego at Saratoga on August 29, winning the seven-furlong Grade 1 by three-quarters of a length over T Kraft and Senior Officer, who dead-heated for second. That was a Win and You're In for the Dirt Mile, but Moquett has kept the 4-year-old gelding at six furlongs. Moquett's history in this race includes Whitmore, though he's careful with the comparison, insisting Hymn is his own horse and not another Whitmore. His final breeze at Keeneland went well, and Moquett liked the way he came home after it. Ricardo Santana Jr., who won the Forego aboard him, rides from post 4.

Post 5 · T: Doug O'Neill · J: Emisael Jaramillo · Line 12/1

The $10,000 yearling. Listenupshance was a cheap Fasig-Tipton buy, and now he's a Grade 1 winner. He took the Bing Crosby at Del Mar in July, which earned him a free spot in this race, then went to the front in a short field in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship on September 27 and beat favorite Maximum Bourbon by three-quarters of a length. Emisael Jaramillo said afterward that the gelding was not at his best and that the race was a Breeders' Cup prep, and Doug O'Neill raved about the early fractions. The one worry is the start. Jaramillo says he has been misbehaving in the gate lately, but adds that he can get where he wants to be in a couple of jumps. With other speed drawn inside, a clean break from post 5 matters. Jaramillo rides.

Post 6 · T: Yoshito Yahagi · J: Oisin Murphy · Line 30/1

The Yahagi sprinter with a turf back-up plan. American Stage is trained by Yoshito Yahagi, who also has Forever Young in the Classic, and he's Kentucky-bred, an Into Mischief colt who sold for $500,000 at Keeneland September. He's back for a second try at this race after running in last year's Sprint at Del Mar. His most recent start was a second in the Korea Sprint in September, though Dragon Welds beat him by six lengths that day in a Japanese one-two. He's versatile enough to have won on turf, and the Turf Sprint was actually his first preference. He's on the also-eligible list there, so the dirt it is. Yahagi once said he has "an ability that transcends speed." Oisin Murphy rides from post 6.

Post 7 · T: Wayne Catalano · J: Luis Saez · Line 10/1

The tactical one. Built went down the Derby trail, running second in the Lecomte and third in the Risen Star, before Wayne Catalano turned him into a sprinter. Catalano admits they probably pushed it a step too far before regrouping. It worked. He has won four of seven starts this year, including the Grade 2 Alfred G. Vanderbilt at Saratoga, where he ended Hymn's winning streak, and the Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes at Churchill on September 12. Catalano loves his versatility. "Built can do whatever you want," he says, and the plan is to sit just off the pace in what Catalano calls the Cat-bird seat. Irad Ortiz Jr. was hurt, so Luis Saez picks up the mount from post 7. Catalano says it all starts with a good break, and after that you need the racing gods on your side.

Post 8 · T: Tim Hamm · J: John Velazquez · Line 50/1

The lightly raced Florida-bred. Little Thunder has run only five times and has never finished worse than second, with three wins. He announced himself at Tampa Bay Downs in February, winning an optional claimer by 7¾ lengths in a time just .28 seconds off the track record. The only horse to beat him that winter was Disruptor, who later ran second to T O Elvis in the Churchill Downs Stakes. Last time out, in the Phoenix here on October 2, he ran Nakatomi to a length in second, with Mad House third. Tim Hamm summed him up back in February: "every single time he has done something, he has shown up." He was outside the field at pre-entry but made the cut, and the 4-year-old Noble Bird gelding gets John Velazquez from post 8.

Post 9 · T: Wesley Ward · J: Tyler Gaffalione · Line 15/1

The old pro on his favorite track. Nakatomi is 7, and this is his fourth straight Breeders' Cup Sprint after finishing third, sixth and ninth in the last three. What keeps him going is a winter routine Wesley Ward swears by: months off at the farm, where Fergus Galvin's daughter feeds him carrots and rides him bareback. Ward says he turns into a pony there. Back at the track he's a different animal, especially at Keeneland, where he has won five of eight starts. He won the Phoenix here for the second year running on October 2, by a length, and Ward says he's everything a racehorse should be. A win would tie the record for the oldest Sprint winner, matching Cardmania and Whitmore, who both won at 7. He was second to Dark Saffron in the 2025 Golden Shaheen. Tyler Gaffalione rides from post 9.

Post 10 · T: Bob Hess Jr. · J: Julien Leparoux · Line 30/1

The fresh horse under the radar. Roll On Big Joe hasn't run since May, when he was second in the Grade 3 Aristides at Churchill, a race in which Mad House finished fifth. Bob Hess Jr. passed on the Bing Crosby in the summer and aimed for a fall campaign instead, so this 6-year-old gelding comes in off a five-month break. He's a five-time stakes winner with 10 wins from 25 starts, and Hess describes a stalker with a turn of foot, likening him to a Ferrari in miniature. The trick is getting through, because "he can sit in a pocket and when the hole opens, he goes." Hess is realistic about the competition, calling Englishman and the Japanese runner freaks, but he reckons the rest of the field is closely matched. Julien Leparoux rides from post 10.

Post 11 · T: Daisuke Takayanagi · J: Ryusei Sakai · Line 7/2

Japan's sprint star, back where he made history. T O Elvis came to Churchill Downs on Derby Day off a six-month break and won the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes by 3¼ lengths in stakes-record time. He beat Knightsbridge, now a Classic contender, who finished sixth. "This is a first winner for Japan here," Daisuke Takayanagi said. Now he runs off a long layoff again. The stable passed on a summer trip to Korea to play it safe in the heat, so he hasn't raced since May. Takayanagi admitted in April that six months off was "a bit of a concern," and it worked out fine. He's Kentucky-bred, by Volatile out of an eight-time stakes winner, and he won the Capella Stakes in Japan by five lengths last December. Ryusei Sakai, aboard at Churchill, rides from post 11.

Post 12 · T: Steve Asmussen · J: Flavien Prat · Line 30/1

The $1.3 million sprinter who found his feet. Stradale cost Kaleem Shah $1.3 million as a 2-year-old, and his early career was marked by trouble at the start. Steve Asmussen's team finally got him going on turf, where he won the Mahony at Saratoga by a neck in August, then brought him back to dirt for the Gallant Bob at Parx, which he won by 1¼ lengths despite racing five wide. Assistant Scott Blasi said that day that a good break is the key thing with Stradale, and from post 12 that's still the key. He has a score to settle: he was sixth in the Woody Stephens in June, the race Englishman won. His half-mile work at Keeneland on October 17 was the fastest at the distance. Jose Ortiz, who won both stakes aboard him, rides Englishman, so Flavien Prat takes over.

Post 13 · T: Cherie DeVaux · J: Jose Ortiz · Line 4/5

The brilliant 3-year-old, at home. Englishman has won four of five starts, and the only loss came when he stretched out to a mile in the Pat Day. Back at seven furlongs he was spectacular, winning the Woody Stephens by 5¾ lengths in a time that equalled a 1978 Saratoga track record, then taking the H. Allen Jerkens by 3¾ lengths. Cherie DeVaux has trained him up to this at her Keeneland base, and a foot issue that cost him a work in early October looks to be behind him. His final breeze on October 23 was the fastest of 85. "I think [Englishman] is in a class of his own," DeVaux said. This is his first start against older horses, and rival trainer Bob Hess Jr. lumps him in with the freaks. Jose Ortiz, aboard for all five starts, rides from the far outside, post 13.