13:20 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m½ – 12 Runners
Key Stat
This race has been won by Nicky Henderson or Willie Mullins in 6 of the last 10 years.
Market Leaders
Henderson and Mullins appear to have a strong hand this time around too as they look to extend their fine record in this contest. OLD PARK STAR was a pretty moderate sort in bumpers but has been transformed by hurdles and swept all before him in three Novice events so far, winning by wide margins. He has course form and there’s very little to knock about his 18 length victory over a 136-rated rival last time.
MIGHTY PARK could be anything. Placed in his only point-to-point, he justified strong market support on his only start under rules to date, romping home 38 lengths clear from his stablemate Roc Dino. I think he had things his own way there and this will be a very different test, but he’s clearly got a huge engine.
Other Contenders
TALK THE TALK should be unbeaten having looked sure to win at Leopardstown in a Grade 1 in December only to stumble and fall after the last. He put that right last time out at the same level, winning the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle against the flow and on ground that was probably soft enough for him. He looks tailored made for this type of contest and should run a massive race.
EL CAIROS is another who would be unbeaten over jumps but for an unlucky fall. He departed a Novice hurdle in much the same way that Talk The Talk had at the same meeting two back when looking sure to win, and made no mistake last time. He was fifth in the Champion Bumper here last season and clearly has a ton of ability, while he has been well touted by top connections throughout. He was only 3 lengths ahead of Roc Dino last time out – vs the 38 lengths Mighty Park beat the same rival by – but I wouldn’t read too much into that. He should enjoy a strong pace to run at here and has plenty of upside still.
Interesting Outsiders
There’s plenty of strength in depth as you’d expect from a race of this nature. MYDADDYPADDY looked a leading light amongst the British novice hurdlers earlier in the season but had his reputation dented last time out. He wasn’t suited by the lack of hurdles there – all flights in the straight were omitted – as jumping is his strength but the time came back fast and I think that was still a very good effort. This should suit better.
SOBER GLORY has a tall reputation and was very impressive winning in a fast time last time out. His jockey – who would know a good one – was effusive about him post-race and I think you can forget his sole defeat at Sandown.
He has form that ties in with BARON NOIR, who was behind him at Newbury in a Listed bumper last year before going on to beat EL CAIROS at Punchestown. He was a bit more workmanlike than some of these last time out and has plenty find, for all he is a nice type.
14:00 – Singer Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – 2m – 7 Runners
Key Stat
No 5-year-old has won this race in the past decade.
Market Leaders
That stat is a possible knock against LULAMBA, but it’s hard to be too negative based on what he’s done over fences so far, looking a natural in three impressive wins. He beat good older horses hands down last time out when outside of novice company and did so in a very fast time. His trainer is the man with these two mile chasers and he looks to have another very good one on his hands.
He’d be long odds on here if not for the presence of KOPEK DES BORDERS. Last year’s Supreme winner has had one run over fences to date and was most impressive, winning by a wide margin and jumping well enough. That was back in November, however, and we haven’t seen him since then, and it must be a concern that he’s missed all of his winter engagements and only has the one run over fences under his belt, even if the vibes have been positive in the last week.
Other Contenders
The betting very much suggests one of those two should win but it’s possible they cut each other’s throats and the race falls apart. KARGESE has improved with every run over fences having been a smart hurdler and he won’t mind better going here. He looked a bit unlucky to lose to the very talented Romeo Coolio last time out. He jumps well and should enjoy a strong pace.
Interesting Outsiders
STEEL ALLY is very likeable. He jumps and stays and those qualities should stand him in good stead, although he may want softer ground.
MAMBONUMBERFIVE looked a big improver two back but didn’t jump well enough on bad ground last time out. He’ll enjoy this a lot more but is probably just playing for places.
JAX JUNIOR is another pleasing type. He’s won both starts since his second wind op and this reliable jumper should be very well suited to the demands of this race.
14:40 – McCoy Contractors Juvenile Handicap Hurdle – 2m½f – 22 Runners
Key Stat
Irish-trained runners have won the last 8 renewals of this race.
Market Leaders
A wide-open contest. JP McManus-owned horses head the market here on the day of the National Hunt legend’s 75th birthday.
MANLAGA looks a talented filly. She was beaten on her UK debut but was only just denied by a talented, race-fit rival that day despite giving away 5lbs. She made no mistake on her most recent run, scoring in ready fashion from off the pace. She looks better than a mark of 130 provided that her lack of experience doesn’t find her out.
Owner-mate SARATOGA was a good horse on the flat and looks to have been plotted up for this, although a mark of 130 looks high enough on what he has achieved to date. He was more of a stayer on the flat and might find this test a little sharp for him, while better ground is not necessarily a positive either.
WINSTON JUNIOR had a similar flat rating to Saratoga and has also made steady strides in three runs over hurdles. He was extremely impressive when winning at Ascot last time – probably not a strong race, though – powering clear having cantered all over his field. He was still a bit green that day and should improve again, while I think going left-handed might suit him even better.
ANMES is yet another decent flat horse who has taken well to hurling. He ran a very good race to finish second to Minella Study two back – he is amongst the market leaders for the Triumph Hurdle – and has had a nice spin on the flat since. He represents a top trainer and jockey combination and a mark of 128 looks fair still.
Other Contenders
GLEN TO GLEN was a speedier sort than many of these on the flat and has progressed nicely over jumps. Better ground should suit him although a mark of 129 is high enough on what he’s achieved.
MUNSIF looks like a potential plot given his connections but they may have been too clever as he still needs one to come out to get a run. Assuming he draws in, he should do a lot better here on better going and with some pace to run at – he was very eye-catching on his hurdles debut and a mark of 126 doesn’t look harsh at all.
Interesting Outsiders
MUSTANG DU BREUIL lost his unbeaten record over hurdles last time out but he was a little out of his ground there against older horses having been well supported in the market. He looks capable of better still and should go well at big odds.
HARWA was very impressive on his Irish debut last time out.
15:20 – Trustmarque Ultima Handicap Chase – 3m1f – 22 Runners
Key Stat
British-trained horses have won the last 10 renewals of this contest and should extend that winning run here.
Market Leaders
JP McManus once again dominates the market here with JAGWAR and IROKO. IROKO carries topweight but the weights are fairly compressed and his class edge should be useful. He ran some excellent races last year including in the Grand National when failing to stay and looked better than ever last time out. He looks to have been laid out for this and whatever beats him should win.
That may be JAGWAR who was a well punted and comfortable winner at this meeting last year. He has been building nicely towards the Festival again with two excellent efforts in defeat this season and a 3lb rise for his fine run last time out shouldn’t be enough to stop him. Unlike Iroko, he has to prove his stamina, but that’s a potential angle for improvement in a race where many are exposed.
HANDSTANDS was a Grade 1 winner as a novice but I think he’s better with plenty of give in the ground and his last two runs over this trip have been poor.
Other Contenders
HYLAND has struggled since finishing runner up in a Grade 1 as a novice in December of 2024 but there was plenty to like about his most recent run where he stayed on nicely into fourth. He’s been building towards something better for a while now but probably has less handicapping scope than some of these rivals.
MYRETOWN has been well touted all season but his jumping has let him down in the main. He did too much in front last time out over further but should enjoy returning to this tracking having been a very impressive winner of this contest last year. Both Un Temps Pour Tout and Corach Rambler – the latter of which is a stablemate of MYRETOWN – have won back-to-back renewals of this race in the last decade and a mark of 142 remains within his compass.
Interesting Outsiders
IMPERIAL SAINT has been brought along steadily this season but scored nicely last time over this sort of distance when idling in front. Decent ground suits him and a mark of 144 is not beyond his capabilities.
LEAVE OF ABSENCE shaped very well last time out when overmatched in a Grade 2 on ground that would have been too soft and should enjoy this a lot more. He likes this track and decent going.
BLAZE THE WAY looks the best of the Irish runners having won impressively here back in December – you can forgive his most recent run on heavy going.
16:00 – Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) – 2m½f – 9 Runners
Key Stat
Mares have won 5 of the last 10 renewals of this race.
Market Leaders
The distaffers dominate the market again here in bidding to improve on that record and LOSSIEMOUTH finally gets her shot at Champion Hurdle glory. She’s unbeaten at this track and is more than good enough to win this provided that the cheekpieces don’t have a negative impact. I thought she was given a very poor ride behind BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD last time out and can reverse that form.
BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD is very talented in her own right but she hasn’t been able to show her best at this track in two starts to date and faded badly up the hill last year. She was well-ridden when beating LOSSIEMOUTH last time but won emphatically and has the ability to win one of these.
THE NEW LION won the Turners’ Novice Hurdle at this meeting last year and was going close when falling in the Fighting Fifth two starts back. He overcame a slow pace last time out to scramble home against inferiors but doesn’t make much appeal to me at the current prices with inferior form to LOSSIEMOUTH and BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD, who he also has to concede 7lbs to.
Other Contenders
The third mare in the line-up is last year’s winner GOLDEN ACE. She was undoubtedly fortunate there, and was arguably lucky to win the Fighting Fifth too, but her runs behind State Man and Sir Gino aren’t bad at all. She always runs her race, is a safe jumper, and might be able to cause an upset again.
Interesting Outsiders
PONIROS won the Triumph Hurdle on his hurdling debut at this meeting last year and confirmed that was no fluke when running a fine race behind Lulamba at Punchestown next time out. He was a fair way behind BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD and LOSSIEMOUTH last time out but that was his first run since the summer and it’s fair to say he was not given a hard time out things despite running on late into third. He should strip a lot fitter for that and remains capable of better.
16:40 – Sun Racing Plate Handicap Chase – 2m4f – 23 Runners
Key Stat
No horse has carried more than 11-5 to win this in the past decade. A wide range of ages have won this race and the British and Irish are evenly split at 5 wins each over the past 10 years.
Market Leaders
The betting has narrowed this down to MADARA and MCLAUREY. The former disappointed at this meeting in 2024 but the ground was probably soft enough and he has since run several good races, including when second at this track in the December Gold Cup later that year. He’s missed some time but as a result runs off the same mark here and must be going close if in the same sort of form.
MCLAUREY also bombed at this meeting last year but clearly wasn’t right there. He’s run some eye-catching races over fences without being knocked about and a mark of 133 compares favourably against his hurdle mark of 136. He’s got to prove himself over the distance and on this going, as well as at this course, and there’s enough to prove there for me at the odds, for all he could be well in.
Other Contenders
DOWNMEXICO way was outclassed in a Grade 1 last time but was a wide-margin winner of a handicap prior to that and should benefit from returning to this sort of company.
DOWN MEMORY LANE is another who has struggled in level weights Graded races but won a Listed handicap nicely last time and has more to offer still on just his tenth start – he should enjoy the ground.
ZURICH was an impressive winner at this track two back and is better than he was able to show in a messy race last time. This stiffer track should suit him.
Interesting Outsiders
O’MOORE PARK is on a solid mark based on his efforts at this track in March and April of last year. He’s got a decent record on this type of ground and I think this distance will suit him in a well-run race.
17:20 – National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase – 3m6f – 17 Runners
Key Stat
Only the second running of this race as a handicap, so not much to go on stats-wise. Most of these will be trying this extreme trip for the first time.
Market Leaders
BACKMERSACKME represents connections who won this two years ago and was impressive when winning a handicap at the start of February. He’s had a few goes at 3 miles or more but never won apart from his point-to-point, although he did shape as though he’d stay when running a fine race here in October. A mark of 135 should be withing his range at some point.
Rebecca Curtis won this last year and she fields NEWTON TORNADO. A winner last time out, he’s won both chase starts when completing but his jumping has let him down in two other runs over fences. He ran a nice figure last time out and should go well if his stamina holds out.
Other Contenders
WADE OUT looks a thorough stayer. He isn’t the best jumper in the world but is capable of better still over this extreme sort of test. The headgear could well have a galvanising effect on this lazy sort.
ICEBERG THEORY has taken well to fences and shaped as though he’d stay on his chase debut in March. He’s won both starts since over shorter but that pace should have him in it from the start and he has significant potential.
Interesting Outsiders
KING OF ANSWERS seemed to benefit from cheekpieces last time out and has run plenty of fast times. His adept connections add weight to his chance and he should relish this distance.
GRAND GESTE keeps on improving and will definitely stay.
