By Will Humphrey ©
It’s Kentucky Derby Day! Fourteen races, eight graded stakes, four Grade 1’s and 181 horses entered! With so many high-quality horses set to take part, all throughout the day, it’s hard to know where to look. The weather looks like we could potentially see some moisture in the track, so do keep that in mind when handicapping the card. Here are three to follow for Kentucky Derby Day!
Race 7: #11 COPPICE (5/1 ML)
Believe it or not, by the time race seven, the Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (G2) rolls around, we will still have over six hours until the Kentucky Derby! In race seven, #11 COPPICE will be making her American debut, and is a horse that really interests me.
Owned and bred by Juddmonte Farms, COPPICE was formerly trained in England by John Gosden, where she was a four-time winner, including a Royal Ascot victory and a win in a listed stake at Newmarket.
When I first glanced at her page, I was slightly concerned about her record off layoffs, having finished 10th of 15 on her three-year-old debut, and 9th out of 10 following a 50-day break, mid-season.
However, when I dug into those races, legitimate excuses for her arose. She broke very awkwardly at Newmarket last April, resulting in her having too much to do from last place on ground which was potentially too soft for her. Then, when she finished 9th at Sandown, the jockey could hardly ride her due to the fact that her saddle had slipped way back onto her loins. I put both of those defeats down to circumstance as opposed to her inability to perform off a layoff.
Other than those two disappointing efforts, her form has been very strong and is likely good enough to win this race. Her first two wins came on synthetic surfaces, before she ran out a comfortable winner of a twenty-nine-runner handicap (yes, twenty-nine!), at Royal Ascot.
She went onto finish 5th to three-time Group 1 winner, Nashwa, in the Falmouth Stakes (G1), prior to winning the Rosemary Stakes at Newmarket, where Gosden was quoted as saying “We discussed before this race about this filly continuing her career in the US, where she could make into a Group (Grade) filly.
The last time we saw COPPICE, she finished 4th in the Sun Chariot Stakes (G1), in which she split 2023 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) winner, Inspiral, and 2022 Breeders Cup Fillies Turf (G1) winner, Meditate.
Not only is her form rock solid, and arguably the best on offer in this race, but her pedigree is strong too. By Kingman, she is out of Group 3 winner, Helleborine, making her a full sister to Calyx, who won three of his four career starts and now stands as a stallion at Coolmore. Both her family and form suggest that she is going to thrive on firm, tight turf tracks in the USA.
Frankie Dettori rode her to success at both Royal Ascot and in the Rosemary Stakes, so knows her well and she should get a solid pace to run at here, with both #8 HEAVENLY SUNDAY and #9 NOT SO CLOSE in the field.
Race 13: #7 Jefferson Street (7/2 ML)
There’s over an hour after the Derby before the race thirteen, but it’s one you won’t want to miss.
Let’s start by looking at some of the pedigrees in this red-hot allowance race. #2 DISCREET MISCHIEF is a grandson of three time Grade 1 winning millionaire, Manistique; #7 JEFFERSON STREET is out of a half sister to three time Grade 1 winner, Frosted, who also finished 4th in the 2015 Kentucky Derby (G1) and #13 PIRATE, is a half brother to Preakness Stakes (G1) and Pegasus World Cup (G1) winner, National Treasure. If that isn’t enough for you, the morning line is led by 2yo Grade 1 runner up, #9 GENERAL PARTNER. What a race!
I’m keen to take GENERAL PARTNER on in this spot. Not only is he coming into this race off a layoff, having not been seen since his 6th place finish behind Fierceness in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), but his dam failed to progress from her promising two-year-old year, which to me is a concern.
Meanwhile, although DISCREET MISCHIEF was impressive last time out, he’s going to have to break fast from his inside post and could encounter some traffic trouble, and I’m also wary about the strength of the races he’s coming out of.
I’m most interested in Frosted’s half-brother, JEFFERSON STREET, who effortlessly won at Keeneland last time. It’s worth noting that both Frosted and his own brother, Indulgent, took three starts to break their maiden before the penny dropped and they went onto become Graded Stake winners. JEFFERSON STREET strikes me as exactly the same type. He’s improved his speed figures in each of his three starts and quite frankly, could have run faster last time out, had he not been wrapped up late.
He’s progressive, looked great in victory last time, should sit a perfect trip from post seven and has proven himself to have no issue with wet surfaces, should the rain arrive.
Race 14: #3 GUN PARTY (7/2 ML)
I applaud anyone who still has any energy left to play race fourteen, but it should be a thrilling contest.
Similar to the previous race, this one-mile MSW features some exceptionally well-bred colts. #1 DIVE BOMBER is a half brother to last year’s Kentucky Oaks third choice, Botanical; #3 GUN PARTY is a son of Curlin, out of Grade 1 winner, Carina Mia; #4 FRIAR NEWTON is out of 2005 Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner, Summerly; #9 SIX KINGS is out of a half sister to Grade 1 winner, Film Maker and #11 FRACTURE is a half brother to Grade 1 winner, Instilled Regard.
Of the group, I’m most interested in GUN PARTY. A $1.7m yearling purchase, the son of Curlin ran 2nd to Just a Touch on debut, before finishing a fast-closing 2nd again to a well bred Goldolphin runner. He earned a Timeform US speed figure of 104 for both of those efforts, however he still looked green last time out and has the ability to improve further.
Joel Rosario takes the ride for the first time on GUN PARTY today and looks like he will fit him like a glove. He has proven his ability on both fast and wet surfaces, and I think he’s been unfortunate to bump into two talented horses in both his starts to date. Out of all the horses in the field, he strikes me as the horse who will relish a strongly run mile better than anyone, and today looks like it could be his day.
Good luck with you’re Derby wagers and whatever you do, make sure you enjoy the day!
