Thoughts are with Tyler Conner and his loved ones after that scary spill yesterday that saw him airlifted to a local hospital and forced the cancellation of the final four races on the card. Reports are that the injury while extremely serious might not be as bad as originally feared which is excellent to hear. The racing rolls on this evening with a solid eight-pack of races is on deck for Friday evening at Colonial Downs nestled right between the end of the Saratoga card and the beginning of Del Mar’s. I’ve got a couple spot plays to highlight across what should be a pretty competitive set of affairs.
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Selections
- Race 1: 5-4-8-6
- Race 2: 6-1-5-3
- Race 3: 1-2-5-8
- Race 4: 3-7-5-8
- Race 5: 1-7-3-5
- Race 6: 5-3-6-7
- Race 7: 8-4-5-2
- Race 8: 3-2-9-1
Colonial Downs Race 3: Bigdaddysboy (#1) at 5-1 or higher
I have no argument with Daufuskie Island (#2) being the most likely winner in this spot as he’s run against much tougher company throughout his career than what he meets today. While his B- race would probably win this, it’s fair to question whether he can still produce that kind of effort after that disappointing performance at Delaware last out. That was the first start for him in Brittany Russell’s barn and now she drops him from allowance ranks to a $10k conditioned claimer and while the drop is a high percentage move for the barn, it’s also a low ROI move. The two logical alternatives to him are San Constantino (#5) and Pressure (#6), but the former needs to prove he can still be proficient on dirt and the latter needs to prove he can still run after leaving the David Jacobson operation. I landed on Bigdaddysboy (#1) thinking he can get the right setup with one-way speed Imtakinittothebank (#3) forcing the hand of the favorite. Bigdaddysboy likes to sit back and make one run which could suit this race shape and he’s regained solid form after Gina Perri reclaimed him for $7.5k three-back. If they go too fast up front, he’s the most likely one to benefit having the TimeFormUS fastest late pace rating.
Colonial Downs Race 4: Behold the King (#3) at 2-1 or higher
These open 2YO maiden special weights are always interesting affairs as some pretty accomplished juveniles have made their debuts at Colonial over the years. Most of the field is making their first start, but if I was to take one with experience it would be Casa Cielo (#8) who finished second after showing speed in his debut at Horseshoe Indy. The issue is I’m not sure if there was much competition in that field and Desormeaux hits at a low percentage with second-time starters. Jonathan Thomas sends out the ML favorite Sharons Beach (#6) who has a bullet gate work over the Colonial dirt flashing on his page, but this barn is only 1/25 (4%, $1.02 ROI) with 2YO FTS in turf routes. McPeek has similarly poor numbers in that category (2/59, 3%, $1.22 ROI), but at least his charge C. P. A. Jim (#5) has a solid pedigree as his dam was stakes-placed and banked 241k on the grass while sire Karakontie wins with 17% of his 2YO first-time starters. I landed on Behold the King (#3) as the top pick in this spot as I trust the Mark Casse barn with this type. His barn is a robust 11/62 (18%, $3.97 ROI) debuting juveniles in turf routes and this one is by another sire of precocious runners with Not This Time winning with 18% of debuting 2YO’s. The other horse I’ll throw in is Culoir (#7) who has been working on the turf in preparation for this start. When Duarte teams up with Karamanos, they hit at a high clip posting a record of 11/29 (38%, $3.44 ROI) over the last five years. He’s got a solid turf influence on the damsire as he’s out of a five-time winner on the green, but I couldn’t put him on top as I loathe Union Rags as a turf sire.
Colonial Downs Race 6: Somnium (#5) at 5-2 or higher
My final spot play on this twilight card comes in another open MSW, this one for older turf sprinters. Yo Adrian (#3) is likely to go off a substantial favorite in this spot as she’s been knocking at the door for breaking her maiden with some solid speed figures along the way. However, she’s somewhat exposed with three runs under her belt while some others might have reason to improve. That includes Epic Style (#7) who was defeated by the favorite in their common race, but that was Epic Style’s debut which came over a soft turf course so there’s reason to believe she can take a step forward. Seger Songs (#6) has plenty of experience, but not much going the sprint distance which could be what she’s best at after flattening out going long. However, my top pick is going to be Somnium (#5) who goes out for the Liz Merryman barn. One of this trainer’s claims to fame is being the original owner/trainer of BC Turf Sprint winner Caravel and this filly his her younger half sister. That also makes her a sibling to turf sprint stakes winner Witty, so it’s clear this is likely her preferred surface. Unfortunately, in her two turf sprints to-date she’s had trouble getting out of the gate, but I was taken with the way she closed into a slow pace at Laurel two-back in a productive maiden race finishing ahead of three next-out winners. If she can break with the field this afternoon, she’ll be tough to beat.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 7/19)
All
Top Picks: 47-11-10-5 (23%, $1.57); Featured Horses: 14-4-1-2 (22%, $2.69)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 24-3-5-2 (13%, $1.18); Featured Horses: 9-2-1-1 (22%, $2.76)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 36%; B’s: 38%; C’s: 23%; X’s: 2%
