We’re back with more analysis of this Colonial meet. Unfortunately, this week has been a wet one in Virginia, but with the fact they were on the turf Friday, I feel good about it for Saturday. Thankfully, the two stakes on the card this Saturday are dirt races, so those should be relatively unaffected. It’s next week when Colonial will host its Festival of Racing including some graded stakes on the lawn, so fingers crossed for dryer weather next week.
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Selections
- Race 1: 4-1-7-5
- Race 2: 9-1-3-5
- Race 3: 3-5-7-2
- Race 4: 7-10-8-4
- Race 5: 2-4-5-7
- Race 6: 12-3-5-2
- Race 7: 6-1-3-4
- Race 8: 8-3-2-4
- Race 9: 1-7-6-5
Colonial Downs Race 3: Blessings Bestowed (#3) at 7-2 or higher
I’m surprised to see Flying to Work (#8) as such a heavy favorite on the morning line. Sure, he was victorious in his turf debut, but now will be a shorter price stepping up in class after winning at 6-1 last out. El Junior (#7) is yet to win on the grass but those three efforts came in open N2L company whereas this is VA restricted. Go to Bingo (#5) is tempting to put on top given he broke his maiden over this course and distance last summer. He ran well in his subsequent start nearly missing going a flat 5 and I’m willing to toss his last as the Punch Line Stakes was way tougher than what he meets today. However, I made Blessings Bestowed (#3) the top pick in this spot as I believe the form of this WV-Bred is dirtied up. It was a very weak field, but I loved what I saw when he broke his maiden here last summer by over 8L and then he couldn’t get to the lead against tougher company in the turf sprints that followed. He hasn’t sprinted on grass since last fall, but I liked he showed speed going a route of ground two weeks back. These connections usually don’t take a ton of money, so hoping to get a fair price on him.
Colonial Downs Race 6: Lady Blake (#12) at 6-1 or higher
A full field of twelve is signed on to contest this $16k CLM turf route. Maybe Set Ablaze (#5) is going to prove too good for these as she was impressive winning last out closing from last-to-first. However, similar to in R3, she was 6-1 against a weaker field and now faces a step up in class. The other favorite is Reading Time (#2) who disappointed at 1-1 last time out at this level. She can win here, but I’ll look for some bigger prices. Stay In Tune (#3) won a similar race to this two back and drops slightly in class after finishing 4th for $25k last time. The Magee barn has seemed to get her good on turf and she still has some upside as a 3YO filly. However, my top pick is going to be Lady Blake (#12) and while the post isn’t ideal, I’m thinking that’ll prevent too much money from heading her direction. My thought here is that this is an enormous drop in class from an open $40k claimer at Churchill and she actually showed significant life last out taking the field a long way on the lead before tiring at 53-1. I’d argue the last time she raced at a reasonable level in a turf route was her win in August of last year in an $30k N2L at Ellis. That win came stalking the pace which is the trip I envision Jareth Loveberry working out from this outside post.
Colonial Downs Race 7: Stowaway (#6) at 9-2 or higher
The Yorktown Stakes is easily the most anticipated race on this Saturday card as it features a matchup between Vibe (#1) and Barbadian Runner (#3). The former rode a three race win-streak into the Met Mile where things did not go his way never really getting involved before being eased late and loaded on the equine ambulance. He’s worked a couple times since and Pletcher wouldn’t send him here if he wasn’t fit, but I don’t want a short price on a runner with that last line of form. Barbadian Runner is in excellent form, winning his last two starts both over this 9f distance though he had to work a little harder than expected to win at 3-5 last out. These two runners along with Inveigled (#4) like to be forwardly placed in the running and I can see the pace heating up. That’s why I’m taking a small shot with Stowaway (#6) hoping he can pass them all late. It’s been a while since his last win, but he’s been knocking at the door in three of his last four. He certainly has the best late kick out of this field and I could see the others tiring late in the long Colonial stretch.
#TheCheatSheet
2026 Summer Meet Statistics (thru 7/24)
All
Top Picks: 52-16-9-11 (31%, $2.13); Featured Horses: 16-5-3-3 (31%, $3.34)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 37-12-4-9 (32%, $2.68); Featured Horses: 14-4-2-3 (29%, $3.59)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 58%; B’s: 27%; C’s: 10%; X’s: 6%
