It’s “Breakfast at Colonial” this week as soaring temperatures required the modification of post times to begin the card at an earlier 10:45 AM. Grab a coffee and supplement any international racing you are watching with some morning racing from New Kent, VA.
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Selections
- Race 1: 6-1-4-2
- Race 2: 6-4-2-1
- Race 3: 4-1-7-3
- Race 4: 3-5-6-2
- Race 5: 4-6-7-9
- Race 6: 4-6-2-3
- Race 7: 3-1-6-4
- Race 8: 8-2-12-6
Colonial Downs Race 5: Firmantown (#4) at 9-2 or higher
One of the more interesting races on this card is this N1X 5.5f turf sprint. Crossingthechannel (#6) is definitely the most talented runner in this field having won two of his last three starts, but he’ll have to transfer that form to turf at a short price. His sire Omaha Beach has been a better producer of dirt sprinters and his dam finished 7th in her only turf start. One longshot who’s dangerous is Banneker (#7) as this gelding could be the proverbial speed-of-the-speed. He’s yet to win on turf, but has wired some fields on synthetic. I just think the last sixteenth of a mile will find him out. Other logicals include both Creed’s Vision (#2) and Virtuosity (#9). The former is another trying the grass for the first time, but at least being by Jimmy Creed is a positive. The latter has won sprinting over this Colonial sod in the past, but I prefer another runner out of the race he finished 3rd in at Laurel last out. My top pick is Firmantown (#4) and with two West Point Thoroughbred owned horses amongst popular connections in this race, I think we’ll get a fair price. This colt actually debuted on the grass back in 2024 and looked like a winner much of the way. He’s spent most of the rest of his career on dirt, but I’ve found his last three starts encouraging since getting back on the grass. Both two and three back he encountered trouble within the race and last time was narrowly out-finished at this level. I think he can get a nice stalking trip under journeyman Horatio Karamanos and get the jump on the favorites.
Colonial Downs Race 7: Magic Wallet (#3) at 7-2 or higher
This iteration of the Star De Naskra Stakes features a pretty evenly matched group. One opinion I have is not to default to the ML favorite Tartabull (#8). I haven’t been impressed with his recent form and the trainer switch off a failed turf experiment screams desperation. I actually view Close the Gate (#1) as the horse to beat in this spot as he has a couple lines from earlier this year that would make him tough. Top Manipulator (#6) is also worth a look as he had his three-race win streak snapped when facing a crazy tough test in the Chick Lang last time out. My top pick is actually another runner who contested that event as I landed on Magic Wallet (#3). This colt had an auspicious start to his career winning at first asking over this strip and backing that up with a minor stakes win at Delaware last August. He then went to the bench and its taken him some time to get back on track in 2026. I’m willing to draw a line through his Chick Lang as that was a tough spot and last out he showed improvement finishing second in a tough N1X. I also think he can improve with a bit more distance as he gets out to 7f for the first time.
Colonial Downs Race 8: Dream Overture (#8) at 7-2 or higher
The Colonial nightcap is important as it closes out the 15% takeout $3 min LP3 and the 12% takeout late pick five. While there’s a full field of 12 signed on, there’s a lot of filler in the race and I’d be surprised by a lot of winners. La Devita (#2) is the horse to beat for the dangerous Brittany Russell barn. This is a precipitous drop in class for a ownership group that likes to win races at this meet. I do find it interesting that her previous jock, Jevian Toledo, opts for the Russell barn’s other runner, firster Up On the Rock (#6), but I wasn’t enthralled with that one’s page. My top pick is Dream Overture (#8) who could get overlooked in the wagering if they go overboard on the Russell pair. She was claimed out of her last start by the McMahon barn that isn’t usually too active at the claim box and immediately will try her routing on the turf for the first time. She’s by Mendelssohn so I think she’ll be able to handle the stretch-out and links up with Jareth Loveberry who has been dangerous on this turf course in the past. I’ll also throw a shout for Paynted by Nancy (#12) who is the only one listed at double-digits on the morning line with a chance. This barn often targets the Colonial meet and she finally will face VA-Restricted maiden claiming company.
#TheCheatSheet
2025 Summer Meet Statistics
All
Top Picks: 208-57-45-33 (27%, $1.88); Featured Horses: 65-11-13-17 (17%, $1.86)
Fair Odds Met
Top Picks: 127-27-28-19 (19%, $2.01); Featured Horses: 51-9-10-12 (18%, $2.12)
Grid
Percent of Races Won By: A’s: 46%; B’s: 33%; C’s: 18%; X’s: 3%
