Opening Weekend at Saratoga rolls on and this will be the first Cross-Country Pick-5 wager of the meet. Three races from New York and two from Monmouth Park will make up this wager today, which starts at 4:24 (ET). Weather was an issue in Saratoga Springs yesterday, as all of the races were taken off the turf. The bulk of the day yesterday was dry and the forecast for rain is slim, so I’m assuming that the turf races in the sequence are staying on the grass.
Leg A: Monmouth Park, Race 6:
Nine have signed up for this beaten $8K-$7K claiming race for fillies and mares, sprinting six furlongs. This is a tricky race where I think a lot of money will be thrown down on Rose E Holiday (#3). While I think her 3-1 morning line figure is close to fair value, I suspect she’s going to be closer to 8-5 in this race, which feels too low for me. On the plus side, she’s making her second start off the layoff and dropping into a more appropriate class level for her current form. While he fits nicely on figures, her last two races that were not optional claiming/allowance races, were races where she was well backed by the public and she ran down to her competition. I’ll use her as a backup since this is a reasonably significant drop, but I’m not sold that we’re going to see her best. I landed on Bullet on Tap (#6) in this spot. I think she’ll get the right trip today after finishing second with similar last out. She came with a four wide to grab second at long odds that day. While she’s 0-5 on this oval, she tends to run solid races here, finishing in the money in three of those efforts. She was a winner three back at Parx and if there is some afternoon rain that muddies the course, she’d be just fine with that. Wait a Sec (#7) in this race. She showed some speed and faded to third at this level last out. She’s struggled to be the best version of herself since coming here from Tampa, but she’s slowly rounding back into better form. It’s been a while since wins and she hasn’t been finishing the strongest of late, but I do think she fits with these. I’ll also back up with Chloe Rose (#9). She’s going from several routes back to sprints for Scott Lake. While her more recent sprints haven’t caught the eye, she does find a field where many struggle to find energy in the late stages of their races. She has a decent overall record and she was a winner three back with time restricted $5K claimers at Parx. Paco Lopez picking up the mount is certainly an upgrade.
Leg B: Saratoga, Race 7:
The first race in the sequence from New York is an optional $35K claiming/$50K starter allowance race. This has the feeling of a race where there could be several runners in contention when they dash for home. Devil’s Cay (#3) is an interesting prospect in this race. His first 14 career starts came on the dirt and his last two have been six furlong sprints on the turf downstate at the Big A. She was closing well in both of those races, but she ran out of real estate. Morley has good numbers stretching his runners out from sprints to routes and there is definite two turn pedigree there. Morley also sends out Mauritius (#7), who is coming off a pair of strong races downstate. He’s going to be a pace presence in this race and being on the lead certainly didn’t hurt your chances on this course last season. If he’s left alone on the front end, they all could be battling for second. Leftembehind (#8) runs for Barclay Tagg and Sackatoga Stable. He’s a New York bred facing open company here while moving back to the turf. He was sharp on the turf two back, but things didn’t go his way when cutting back to seven furlongs on the dirt last time out. He’s one that figures to get a boost while getting back on the green today. Front Man (#12) will have to overcome post 12, but he was moving well in his last start at this level at Belmont at the Big A. He just missed at this level and he’s making his third start off the layoff. He’s one that could be rolling late in this spot.
Leg C: Monmouth Park, Race 7:
The featured race of the afternoon is an optional $40K claiming/N2X allowance contest going 1 mile and 70 yards on the main track. I landed on Your Analysis (#8) in this contentious event, He’s making his third start off the layoff for Claudio Gonzalez, who is all of the sudden, right back in the mix for leading trainer at this meet. He faltered as the lukewarm favorite at this level at laurel last month, but that race was contested at a one turn mile, and his best efforts have come at two turns. I’ll draw a line through that one as his prior form was solid enough. His last two races on this oval in 2023 were dominating efforts. Sittin On Go (#9) came up empty in this slop at Penn National last out. Jacobsen gave him a mini-break and now he brings him to the Jersey Shore for the first time in his career. If the track comes up muddy or sloppy, I’ll probably downgrade him a notch. However, on fast footing, I think he fits very nicely with this field. American Law (#4) is the backup for me in this spot. He’s coming off three races on the turf where he was never a factor. His dirt races prior to that were sharp though. He might be better at one turn as opposed to two, but he has races that put him right in the mix with this group.
Leg D: Saratoga, Race 8, The Wilton Stakes:
The first of two stakes races from Saratoga in this sequence is a one mile contest for three year old fillies. I think Bells Beach (#6) is going to get the perfect set up in this race. She is coming off an impressive maiden score when going the one turn mile at Churchill last month. She comes to the Spa where her main competitors want to be forwardly placed. I expect that she’ll get a decent pace to close into and this well bred filly is going to wear them down late. I see her as a horse that could be worthy of using as a single in this wager.
Leg E: Saratoga, Race 9, The Coronation Cup:
Three year old fillies will be highlighted once again, as they’ll dash 5 ½ furlongs on the turf is the co-featured race of the afternoon. This race starts with Star of Mystery (#10) for Charles Appleby. She came to Saratoga and competed in the Grade 1 Jaipur Stakes against older males last month. Cogburn was ridiculously quick that day, but she didn’t embarrass herself by any means when she finished third that day. If she runs that kind of race today, she’s going to be in the Winner’s Circle. Appleby is 8-27 in North America this year and some of those losses came at the hands of a stablemate. She’s going to be a short price in a turf sprint that is strong. I’ll also use Pipsy (#4) in this spot, with Frankie Dettori in the irons. She was excellent when winning the Grade 3 Soaring Softly in May at Belmont at the Big A. She blew the break but still was able to circle the field and get the job done. She went to the front in the Tepin when going one mile at Churchill and she came up empty. Sprinting is her game and she has proven that she can win from anywhere on the track.
