This afternoon is the last wager in this series for 2024 that will be incorporating racing from Monmouth Park. Throughout the season, this wager has produced some excellent payouts, and today should be no different. We’ll start with the 6th race from Belmont at the Big, which goes at 3:37 PM (EDT).
Leg A: Belmont at the Big A, Race 6:
New York breds will go 1 ⅛ miles, out of the chute, on the inner turf course in this optional $45K claiming/N2X allowance race. There is a lot of speed signed on for this race and I don’t think some of the runners that are going to be forward, want to go this far. Locke and Key (#7) looks to be very tough in this race, as I think he’ll appreciate the added distance. Frankie Dettori rode him to a game second place finish at this level last month at Saratoga and I like seeing him get the return call today. Betterluckythangood (#4) was third in the same race last out and he’s another one that should benefit from a rapid tempo on the front end. He’s been a little flat in the late stages of his last two starts at this level at the Spa, but he was a two-time winner on this course in the spring. I don’t love that he’s the morning line favorite, but I think he had a decent shot. On deeper tickets, Agent Creed (#6) is worth covering, making his first start off the claim for Ray Handal. This barn excels with runners in this spot, boasting a strong $3.50 ROI since 2023 first off the claim. He was a winner in open allowance company over the winter at the Fair Grounds and one of his four career victories came over this oval.
Leg B: Belmont at the Big A, Race 7:
Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs on the dirt in this $10K claiming race. It’s hard to get excited to play a favorite that hasn’t won a race since May of 2021, but that’s the case with Mon Petit Chou (#5). It’s not like she’s getting a ton of class relief in here, so despite having solid figures, I’m looking for alternatives. My First Love (#8) should appreciate the return to the Aqueduct main track, as she’s won 4 times in 14 starts here. She’s probably better going a little longer, but I think she fits well with this group. I’m willing to draw a line through her last effort when facing better at Saratoga. Ribot’s Valentine (#7) is another runner that should appreciate coming back here. She was a winner here in February. Her latest efforts haven’t been great, but two of them came on the turf and the other two came against stronger fields at the Spa. She was claimed for $25K when she won that day, so seeing her in for $10K isn’t great. However, there are some things to like that will outweigh the negative for me.
Leg C: Monmouth Park, Race 8:
Three year olds and up will go one mile on the main track in this optional $20K claiming/N1X allowance race. This is a fascinating ten horse race that came up fairly deep. There’s a pair of New York based runners, some Jersey breds, some runners that have been running in starter allowance company, and some horses that have been competing at this level locally, all melded together. From a pace standpoint, King of Hollywood (#9) feels like the lone speed threat here. Jorge Gonzalez is going to have to use him coming out of the gate, but I do think he can get a breather. He can also sustain a solid pace and have something left for the stretch run. He’s won three times at this meet and they opted to run him here instead of at Delaware yesterday. I think Jasper’s Pride (#3) is a very interesting New Jersey bred three year old to contend with. This will be his 7th start of the meet, He’s run four very good races and two dull efforts. The bad races came in the Haskell and in the Charles Hesse Handicap last out when facing some of the better New Jersey bred runners on the grounds. While the competition was stiff in those two races, it’s worth noting that both of those races were run without the use of raceday Lasix. He was on Lasix for the four strong efforts. This will be the toughest non-stakes field that he’ll face at this meet, but I do think the talent is there to compete at this level. Chad Brown brings in Cartucho (#6) from New York to find some class relief. This $1,200,000 son of Gun Runner makes his 5th career start. He looked like a good thing when winning on debut at Tampa in March. He faced Mindframe in allowance company on Derby Day at Churchill, which didn’t go well. He followed that effort up with a dull allowance try there in June. Brown gave him two months off and brought him to a N1X allowance race at nine furlongs at the Spa. Those races are always extremely deep and that one was no different. He’s getting serious class relief here and his one race at a lesser circuit was a dominating win. He’s listed at 9-2 on the morning line and that number feels right.
Leg D: Belmont at the Big A, Race 8:
I’ll definitely want some coverage in this optional $35K claiming/$50K starter allowance race where they’ll sprint six furlongs on the outer turf course. Inflation Nation (#6) became eligible for this condition when he ran in a $40K N2L claiming race that was taken off the turf at the Spa last month. He struggled against allowance types at Churchill and Saratoga when going shorter distances. He ran strong races in longer sprints here, running good races in three stakes races at two and three. This feels like a spot for him to wake up. Java Buzz (#2) makes his third start off the layoff here. He faltered last out at this level last month at Saratoga, but he was sharper two back. He broke his maiden going gate to wire on this course at this distance in 2022. He’s going to be the one to catch. Gaslight Dancer (#10) and Hilarious Affair (#4) are consistent runners that often show up. They’ve been too good to ignore in a race where coverage feels like it will be needed.
Leg E: Monmouth Park, The $85K Joey P. Handicap, Race 9:
It’s hard to look past Smithwick’s Spice (#6) here. He’s an eight year old Frost Giant gelding that has gotten better with age. He won the Select Stakes when facing open company two back and he ran a credible 6th at long odds in the Harvey Pack Stakes at the Spa two weeks ago. He gets class relief, dropping into face state bred company. He is best when sprinting on the turf and he faces many runners that are better at other things.
