Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 8-Green Carrera (GB) (Race 6)
Race #1: Selections: 1-4-3
1-Sunny Creed goes turf to dirt while taking a sizable class plunge in the Del Mar Friday opener for trainer Jeff Mullins. The 3-year-old daughter of Jimmy Creed draws a cozy inside post off the two-month freshening and should work out a favorable ground-saving journey. Two sprints to a route, 4-Debby’s Gal makes career try number 10 today but has had a handful of close-up finishes with competitive figures for this level and makes her third start of the current form cycle. She should be forwardly placed on the stretch-out. 3-Howmanymoretimes finished a much-improved second at 48-1 versus weaker in last.
Race #2: Selections: 1-3-7-6
The lightly raced 1-Piedra Fria weakened to fifth in his first crack against winners on Sept. 25 on the stretch-out but now shortens back up to a sprint for career try number three for Team O’Neill. The gelding was a dominant 3 ¼-length maiden winner over this grass course on debut, and has returned to work well since that last start, including a “best of 70: bullet five-furlong drill in :59.4 on Oct. 10. 3-Private Gem rallied for the place spot as the beaten favorite in last against this level, makes his second start off the bench, and retains jockey Umberto Rispoli. A multiple winner over this track and distance, 7-Wiki Kane returns off a two-month-plus mini-refreshing for conditioner Adam Kitchingman, is reunited with winning pilot, and has the versatile running style to adjust to whatever pace scenario unfolds. 6-Decapo has run well in both grass starts here and has early zip in a paceless lineup.
Race #3: Selections: 1-6-3-8
1-Charmz Away is an 18-start maiden that’s hard to trust. The 4-year-old gelding was a steward scratch Sept. 3 and a vet scratch Sept. 12 and hasn’t been out since Aug. 2. Nonetheless, he drops in for a career-low $16k maiden claiming tag for trainer Luis Mendez with the fastest main-track Beyers in the field. 6-Fine Irish Morning has shown improved early speed in his last two starts for trainer Tim McCanna and shortens up from six to 5 ½ furlongs this afternoon as the field’s projected frontrunner. 3-Rooski Doo broke slowly when sandwiched at the break on debut and did little running thereafter, despite decent support (3-1), on debut Oct. 2 over at Santa Anita. The gray gelding takes a sizable class plunge in start number two and can improve. 8-Hungover has made similar back-to-back runs to grab the place spot at this level in the last pair and fits again.
Race #4: Selections: 8-6-1
The 1-for-15 8-We the Hobby through in a clunker from the far outside post when sprinting five panels in last but is back to her preferred one-mile trip this afternoon for Miller, switches to Hernandez, and the filly likes this grass course (6-1-2-2). 6-Syntax finished behind the top choice two-back when trying to stretch out this field on the front end through a speedy early opening quarter from a tough outside post and is expected to use similar tactics again today, while likely facing other pace pressure. 1-The Loan Exchange (by Nyquist) goes two sprints to a route with a favorable inside rail draw while exiting a career-best grass Beyer most recently. This filly’s breeding suggests two turns is well within her wheelhouse, and Ayuso lands here while seemingly having a couple other options.
Race #5: Selections: 6-2-8
6-Makenarita drops into a $10k claimer after defeating $20,000 foes at Los Al on Sept. 13 by a nose with a (69) Beyer off the Steve Sherman claim. An obvious repeat candidate, having already proven she can handle this main track with a second-place finish two back. A voided claim in last 2-Theresasilverlinin has good inside positional speed but surrendered the lead in last when seemingly having things her own way. The 6-year-old mare was a sharp 3 ¼-length gate-to-wire winner over this course over the summer. 8-Dats Ms. Blame was awful in last when a wide, non-threatening seventh and last on Oct. 25 over at Santa Anita. This filly ran well two and three-back for the leading barn, however (when just missing to Makenarita), and she drops in for a career-low claiming tag today on the quick turnaround.
Race #6: Selections: 8-4-9
8-Green Carrera (GB) tries again after a vet scratch in the Oct. 25 Autumn Miss (G3) for trainer Leonard Powell, after closing for fourth in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks back on Aug. 22, when she made her initial Stateside try. The Oaks proved to be a fairly productive race, with three next-out winners, and this looks like a cozy spot for this Lope de Vega filly to come rambling along for the win. A runner-up in the Del Mar Derby (G2) two-back 4-Jordi Bear (Ire) followed up that top effort with an odds-on beaten favorite second on the class drop most recently. The gelding came back with a sharp five-furlong drill on Halloween. It’s never an easy task to step up from maidens to stakes, but 9-Deucari was ultra-impressive on debut, kicking away to a 3 ½-length 11-1 upset score with a lofty (90) Beyer, and her breeding (Collected; 16% turf routes) suggests she should stretch out for Baltas.
Race #7: Selections: 7-1-12
7-Mischievous Bev finished in front of a half-dozen of today’s returning rivals on Oct. 10, running third, and now makes the third start of the current form cycle for trainer Adam Kitchingman. 1-Southern Anton adds blinkers going first off the Jesus Uranga claim off the two-month-plus freshening. The 3-year-old filly has shown some morning zip in her Los Al a.m. drills and should be sent along from the rail. Blinkers off, 12-Sugaree was trounced in last pair but goes first off the O’Neill claim and is eligible to improve substantially for the leading barn.
Race #8: Selections: 10-7-5
If the TimeformUS fast-pace projection in the nightcap comes to fruition, things should set up nicely for 10-John Metcalfe, who goes dirt to turf, second off the bench for trainer Craig Lewis and owns the best late-pace figure in the field. A perched outside stalking journey by J J Hernandez should have the gelding in ideal striking position. 7-Allequin Summer had zero chance with post 12 in last, but draws much better this afternoon for conditioner Paula Capestro, and his grass-route efforts prior to that last subpar run have been good. 5-Love the Pressure ran a bang-up second in last with a sharp (80) Beyer figure, showing solid early speed before tiring late to settle for the runner-up spot. Hernandez off, however.
