Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 10-On the Equinox (Race 1)
Race #1: Selections: 10-5-1
10-On the Equinox rallied strongly for the runner-up spot on her August 4 debut for conditioner Craig Lewis and now stretches out to two turns for start number two. This barn has solid stats with their second-time starters, and Hernandez takes over. 5-Maniae goes two sprints to a route and moves to turf for trainer Andy Mathis. The 3-year-old filly has a ton of grass pedigree on both sides and makes the all-important third career start. 1-Miss Will steps back up in class with an improving Beyer pattern for Glatt and moves inside.
Race #2: Selections: 2-1-6
2-R Heisman has finished first or second in his four career tries thus far for trainer Peter Miller and exits a July 26 win in the Graduation Stakes. That last winning effort was flattered when I’m a Bad Boy returned to win last Saturday. 1-Shea Brennan closed sharply for an impressive 2 ¼-length win for D’Amato on July 26 when dismissed at 8-1. A solid repeat threat with any standard second-out improvement. 6-Bodacious has thrown a pair of clunkers after an impressive winning debut effort where he posted a field’s best (84) Beyer. The son of Smokem is reunited with the winning rider this afternoon and perhaps rebounds today.
Race #3: Selections: 8-10-3
8-Lady Chic is a $500k Fasig-Tipton Kentucky purchase by G1 winner Tapit, who gets 13% with his juvenile debuting prodigy and turf route runners. This jockey-trainer combo finished first and second from two starts this meet with their debut turf runners. 10-Aleramo (Ire) finished a game second in a bulky field of 18 in her first start overseas on July 25 and now makes her initial U.S. unveiling for new conditioner Michael McCarthy. The 2-year-old filly lures Hernandez. 3-Abazaami (GB) is a bit of a mystery, with only registered mediocre work available while making her first stateside start for trainer Bob Hess. She’s by G1 winner Mohaather (GB) and exits a third-place finish on July 30 at Galway in Ireland.
Race #4: Selections: 1-4-9
Turf to dirt 1-King and Country goes two sprints to a route for trainer Tim McCanna this afternoon and should be forwardly placed with today’s rail draw. He drops from a starter allowance into an N2L $16k claimer. 4-Dark Marcus is 1 for 24 but drops to a more appropriate level today. His two Beyer figures earned two and three-back (73,71) makes him a strong threat against this suspect group. 9-Lone Scout returns off nearly a layoff at this drastically reduced level for trainer Bob Hess and has proven in the past that he can fire fresh. A threat against this low-level claimers if he still has run left in him.
Race #5: Selections: 3-4-1
3-Kelly’s Out (Ire) flashed speed and tired to seventh against better on July 21, posting the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (78). That race has produced a pair of next-out winners, and this gal gets the tepid vote in a challenging $32K N2L grass route. She broke her Maiden two-back at this 1 1/8-mile trip. 4-Sweet Laker finished second at this level in her most recent start on August 9, finishing in front of several of these same rivals. Turf to dirt 1-Sabres is confidently stepped up in class by trainer Adam Kitchingman off the August 8 claim. In a small sample, this barn is 3 for 8 (38%) with a lofty $8.50 ROI with first off-the-claim grass runners in the past four years. A chilly jock that’s 0 for 48 this meet ensures a hefty price.
Race #6: Selections: 3-12-6
3-I’m a Lucky Man rallied wide for the show spot on August 11 when moving back to the main track for conditioner Mark Glatt and now makes his second start off the bench. The 5-year-old gelding returned with a sharp three-furlong bullet drill on August 31. 12-Top Gun Tommy shortens back up to 5 ½ furlongs on the class drop this afternoon and is reunited with winning rider Umberto Rispoli. He projects to get a favorable stalking trip with today’s outside draw. 6-Ultimate was a voided claim off of his recent 2 ¼-length win on July 21, where he posted the field’s best last-out Beyer (89). There are some obvious issues as he drops to a $12,500 tag off that win. He has worked four times since that winning effort, however. Mixed signals. 8-Man Overboard broke slowly and still managed to make up good ground late to get up for the unlikely N3L win off that rough trip. I’m not entirely convinced he can string back-to-back wins together.
Race #7: Selections 5-10-2
The ultra-consistent 5-Proof He Rides has finished ITM 11 of 13 starts for trainer Michael McCarthy and shortens up to 5 ½-furlongs today off a runner-up effort in the August 3 Californa Dreamin’s Stakes. Blinkers on 10-Agency makes his third start of the form cycle this afternoon for conditioner Mark Glatt off back-to-back (91) turf Beyers. The son of Bolt d’Oro will likely try to bottom out this field with new equipment in place. 2-Beer Can Man finished a no-excuse even fifth on August 2 for D’Amato and now makes his second start off the bench. The 7-time winning 6-year-old gelding is a multiple winner over the track and distance and is dropped in for a career-low $80k claiming tag.
Race #8: Selections: 9-2-1
9-Westeros finished a better-than-looks fourth on August 4 when crowded early on, dropping back, and then making up decent ground late to miss third. The Into Mischief colt deserves another chance at this reduced level. 2-Arromax has broken slowly in all three career starts for trainer Mark Glatt, and now adds blinkers today to hopefully alleviate that problem. The Arrogate gelding drops to the bottom $20k Maiden Claiming tag today, looking for a form reversal in his second start back off the long break. 1-Eddie’s Wave flashed much-improved early zip with a substantial Beyer increase on the stretch-out on August 15. The 3-year-old gelding makes the third start of the form cycle today.
