Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 9-Raw Ability (Race 8)
Race #1: Selections: 1-2-7
1-Venganza has shown little in both turf starts in 2024 but returns to the main track this afternoon off the six-month freshening. The 4-year-old filly has trained well in her a.m. drills over the last several weeks and was a sharp 4 ¼-length Maiden winner on dirt in her Santa Anita debut. Upset chance. 2-One Magic Philly steps off a sharp Maiden score on August 3 when he defeated next-out winner Seismic Beauty, who returned to win on August 30 with a (83) Beyer. She may sit a similar favorable stalking trip today and is a strong repeat candidate for D’Amato. 7-Nokie rallied strongly for the place spot at 31-1 on August 4 when returning from a six-month layoff. She fits well again this afternoon and is dangerous with a move forward.
Race #2: Selections: 2-7-6
With none of the fillies that have already run appearing all that dominating, it’s a good place to try a first-time starter. Reddam Racing’s 2-Pavel Is Appeal has trained well for Team O’Neill and this jockey-trainer combo is a solid 9 for 39 (23%) with sprint dirt debut runners. 7-Om N Joy broke a step slow in her August 11 debut from the rail and still managed to close well late to round out the trifecta. She gets off the fence this afternoon and can improve off that encouraging unveiling. Blinkers on 6-Rizzleberry Rose exits the same race as Om N Joy and finished an Ok wide fifth after getting away a step slow. She has a solid chance with any regular second-out improvement.
Race #3: Selections: 4-6-5
4-Show Card has been freshened for 12 weeks for Team Baffert after a disappointing effort in the G2 Summer Oaks on June 8. The daughter of Into Mischief won back-to-back races two and three back and is likely to return to that top form this afternoon. She’s a solid gate-to-wire threat with winning pilot Juan Hernandez back at the controls. 6-Super Shine looks like the main threat to the top choice, dropping out of consecutive Grade 2 events when chasing Sweet Azteca and Adare Manor. 5-Liberal Lady has good speed and held on well for second in the She’s A Tiger Stakes at Pleasanton. The main track has been kind to frontrunners all meet.
Race #4: Selections: 4-7-2
4-Grateful My Love (by Danzing Candy) has trained well for today’ unveiling for conditioner Michael McCarthy and lures Hernandez. This jockey-trainer combo is 5 for 17 (29%) with a $3.71 ROI for the past four years with debut runners. 7-Lil’ Boom Boom is the most experienced filly in the field with four career starts and has finished second in her last three attempts at this level. 2-Less Is More is another Reddam Racing and Doug O’Neill filly juvenile debut runner. She’s by multiple G1 winner Nyquist, who gets 17% with his 2-year-old prodigy.
Race #5: Selections: 1-4-5
1-In the Air Tonight powered away to an impressive 5 ¼-length off the pace win in the California Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association Stakes on August 4 and looks primed to go 3-for-3 for trainer Steve Knapp. 4-Cayucos did not disappoint in her well-backed July 20 debut, drawing off to an easy 2 ¾-length Maiden win for Mandella. This daughter of Omaha Beach has trained well since that winning effort and figures to be forwardly placed again this afternoon. The daughter of Bodexpress 5-Hot Girl Walk was a solid Maiden winner on August 11 for conditioner Carla Gaines, and Fresu sticks here while piloting Knapp’s other filly Thirsty in Vegas in all three of her career starts.
Race #6: Selections: 7-6-3
7-Itzel earned the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (88) after flashing speed and tiring in the Daisycutter Handicap on July 27. She’s worked three times since that effort over the grass for Miller and is a gate-to-wire threat with a clean break and reasonable fractions. 6-Big Summer steps up after rallying late to defeat Just Nails on August 1 and has never been worse than first or second over this turf course. The 5 for 17 mare will be closing sharply again through the lane. 3-Just Nails moves up in class after squeaking out a game nose win just 9 days ago. The 5-year-old mare likes this turf course going (2-1-0) from four tries.
Race #7: Selections: 1-5-3
1-Big Spin lost two lengths at the start with a bad break on July 20 and now drops from $16k claimers to the bottom $8,000 level off the Peter Miller claim. The 4-year-old gelding has some solid late kick and should have plenty of pace to run into this afternoon. 5-Upstart Yankee exits a decent runner-up finish against better on August 17 when posting the field’s best last-out Beyer (79). A logical threat with a similar effort. 3-Greatheart made his first start over Del Mar, a winning one on July 25, and now goes first off the claim for conditioner Kelly Bainum, who has done well this meet from limited opportunities.
Race #8: Selections: 9-6-5
9-Raw Ability (by multiple G1 winner Belardo) was an impressive Maiden winner in his first career start overseas when overcoming some trouble and now makes her initial stateside start for trainer John Sadler. She’s trained well over the local lawn, adds Lasix, and looks ready to fire off the three-month freshening. 6-Loterie (Ire) drops in class after finishing sixth in a tough G2 San Clemente Handicap. That event has produced a pair of next-out winners. The D’Amato filly should get a live race flow to close into, and she was a strong Maiden winner two-back. 5-Shin Jidai (GB) finished a better-than-looks wide fifth in her July 20 U.S. unveiling for trainer Leonard Powell from a tough post and is eligible to move forward in her second stateside start.
Race #9: Selections 8-4-6
8-Smokem If U Gottem has finished second in all three starts thus far for trainer Brian Koriner, posting some of the fastest Beyer figures in the field. The colt has good speed to coincide with today’s outside draw, and this looks like the right spot to graduate. The 3-year-old gelding 4-Majestic Palisades makes his initial start for trainer Dean Pederson, who has solid stats with his debut runners. This jockey-trainer combo teamed up to score with a 7-1 winning firster filly, Looks Lucky, on August 23. However, his sire, Majestic Harbor, is only 1 for 34 with his debuting prodigy. Turf to dirt 6-Don’t Hit Me Bash finished fourth in his last turf sprint try on July 28 and now makes his second start off the bench for conditioner Ed Freeman. That July 28 event has produced two next-out winners.
Race #10: Selections: 12-4-3
Despite the tricky outside draw, 12-Miss Meagher (Ire) is a strong win threat, making her first American stateside start for trainer Phil D’Amato, who excels with his imports. The lightly raced daughter of multiple G1 winner Galileo Gold (GB) adds Lasix today, has trained well locally, and should come out running. 4-Tiaraqueen (GB) also makes her initial U.S. start this afternoon for trainer Paddy Gallagher after showing solid ability overseas. The filly adds Lasix and lures top turf pilot. Recent Maiden winner 3-Ima Joker was claimed for $62,500 off that winning effort by trainer Doug O’Neill, and this barn is a strong 8 for 34 with first-off-the-claim turf route runners in the past five years.
Race #11: Selections: 9-1-10
9-Captain Sparrow has good gate speed and drops from $50k to $20,000 Maiden Claimers in his second start back off a year layoff. The Mark Glatt-trained gelding should be tough to reel in with an alert break. Blinkers off 1-Fast Chaz has speed and the rail draw and is a threat against this softer bunch for Team O’Neill. The Fast Anna colt makes his third start of the form cycle. Turf to dirt 10-Tomorrownevercomes drops from $50k to this bottom $20,000 Maiden Claiming level by trainer John Sadler after being snatched out of his well-backed May 24 grass debut. That’s not an encouraging sign, but he’s bred for sprinting on dirt, and this is a shrewd barn.
