Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 5-Vronti (Race 8)
Race #1: Selections: 1-5-4
Blinkers on 1-Apples Y Peaches showed improved speed on the stretch-out back on May 29, when finishing second to odds-on choice Wolf Hill, and now moves further inside with Kimura, where she’s likely to secure the lead. The aforementioned 5-Wolf Hill is a 10-start maiden that’s hit the board in eight of nine lifetime tries, including a most recent second to Iowa Oaks S. repeat winner Mizumi in the Grade 3 Summer Oaks. The Upstart 3-year-old drops back down into the maiden ranks and is a logical threat again, despite not being able to break through. 4-Bourbon Story finished a well-beaten fifth over the sloppy Churchill going on June 26, which likely set this Hess filly up for a much-improved effort this afternoon. The barn’s second off-the-bench runners have been running exceptionally well this summer meet, and Leparoux sticks.
Race #2: Selections: 7-2-3
The D’Amato-trained 7-Clear and Present goes dirt to turf on the stretch-out in career try number two after flashing some speed and fading to sixth when facing a trio of today’s returning rivals. The juvenile colt is by multiple G1 winner Jack Christopher, who has sired some turf-running prodigy success from limited starters. Improvement likely. 2-Itinerary is a $600k Keeneland purchase by Quality Road (14% juvenile firsters/13% turf routers) that has trained sharply over the Del Mar main track for today’s unveiling, including a “best of 106” bullet four furlongs in :47 flat on Aug. 8. The McCarthy charge lures Rispoli at first asking. 3-Whiskey Bridge and Dang Son both hail from the O’Neill barn, making their switch to routing on grass in start number two. This barn usually does well overall with their second-time starters but is only 1-for-25 with dirt-to-turf second-time starters at Del Mar over the past five years. Mixed feelings.
Race #3: Selections: 5-2-6
5-Will Be is back off a 14-month break for D’Amato. The 6-year-old gelding has been plagued by layoff lines the past couple of years, but was a maiden-breaking winner with a (94) Beyer over this course and blasted home by 11 ¼-lengths with a winning (93) Beyer speed figure at Churchill before hitting the sidelines. They’re all running for second money if able to run back to any of those two races off the bench. 2-Lead Pipe Joe returns off a 15-month hiatus as a gelding for a $20k tag after clearly having some issues the past year after rattling off two straight wins before hitting the sidelines. The speedy gray has been motoring along in his a.m. drills (back-to-back bullets) in preparation for this, for a solid layoff barn, and should prove tough to reel in. 6-Vancougar slashes his claiming tag in half off an even fifth with a return to Los Al and dirt. The 7-year-old gelding continues to work well over the Del Mar main track.
Race #4: Selections: 9-10-5
A wide third in a short field on debut out East at Parx, 9-A Oh G goes dirt to turf for new conditioner Peter Miller, who has above-average stats when acquiring new acquisitions. This Practical Joke gelding has plenty of turf pedigree on the dam side to suggest he’ll handle the surface switch, and he’s worked well enough over the local surface since arriving. Lasix on. 10-Fair Question is the horse to beat when coming up a head shy in a close-up third sprinting five panels on July 19 when closing gamely once shaking free late over a pair of returning rivals. The gelding moves outside this afternoon, but sports the field’s best last-out grass Beyer. 5-Sirnami finished an even fifth behind Fair Question in the aforementioned July 19 event, and is likely to move forward today, second off the bench. The gelded son of Sir Prancealot’s best finish came here on debut, sprinting at today’s five-furlong distance.
Race #5: Selections: 4-7-3
4-Miss Hellfire ran away from the competition in a blowout 13 ¾-length romp on debut at Santa Anita on May 30, securing a lofty (86) Beyer to boot, and has been coaxed along nicely since by conditioner Mike Puype. The 4-year-old filly looks well-spotted for her first crack against winners. 7-Bourbon and Spice ships in from Horseshoe Indy in top form, having a maiden win two-back, followed up by a good second against a short allowance field on June 22. The filly now makes her first start for trainer Leonard Powell since changing barns and shipping west. Rosario enticed to ride. 3-Egyptian Mistress has never tried dirt but is bred to handle the main track just fine for Drysdale and is dangerous if catching a spirited early race flow with his late kick. Improvement likely on the surface switch.
Race #6: Selections: 6-7-2
The 12-time winning 6-Grand Slam Smile gets back to turf after a disappointing wide fifth in the Great Lady M (G2) at Los Al on July 4. The multiple stakes winner on the lawn has run well over the Del Mar turf and is back to her preferred one-mile trip, as evidenced by her (6-3-1-2) mark at this distance. An encouraging sign that Hernandez will take over the riding assignment on this talented gal. The Daisycutter S. runner-up 7-Can’t Sleep goes two sprints to a route for the red-hot Carla Gaines barn off the quick turnaround, and this daughter of Om exits a career and best last-out Beyer (91) off a near-miss. She’s in top form and is dangerous if taking to two turns. 2-Fibonaccis Ride gets a stiff class test this afternoon but has the right running style in a race that’s projected to be run swiftly early on. She co-tops the field’s best late pace figure in the field, proven over the track and distance, and figures to work out a favorable ground-saving journey with the inside draw. A definite vertical exotics threat at double-digit odds.
Race #7: Selections: 1-3-5-2
Trainer Bob Baffert sends out a pair of juvenile colts in this 5 ½-furlong main track sprint to start the Late Pick 4. Hernandez looks for his fifth debut winner for the barn this meet aboard 1-Emancipate. The son of Uncle Mo has average drills compared to what we usually see from this outfit, but he gets top billing nonetheless. His stablemate, The MyRacehorse 3-Absolution, is by multiple Grade 1 winner Jack Christopher, who was an 8-plus-length winner on debut himself. Kimura lands here. 5-Inshallah is a $2.1 million colt by Flightline, who is 13-2-3-4 with juvenile debut runners thus far. The pricey dark bay has been working like a good thing for Sadler, and Rosario hops aboard. 2-Articulation is a $725k FTS purchase by Quality Road, who gets an average of 14% with his juvenile-debuting prodigy. A “best of 106” bullet four-furlong drill in :47 flat on Aug. 8 certainly catches the eye, and the McCarthy barn can win with debut runners.
Race #8: Selections: 5-3-9
A full field of 11 closely-matched fillies and mares makes this edition of the CTT & TOC Stakes highly competitive with all the main contenders within a few lengths of each other in ability. Overmatched in the Grade 1 Gamely two-back at Santa Anita, 5-Vronti (GB) ships back in from Saratoga for trainer Graham Motion off a solid allowance optional runner-up finish, and this filly’s turf route figures match up well in this spot. The proven road warrior has done well since arriving Stateside. Trainer Phil D’Amato sends out three in here, with the nod going to 3-Innovative. The Grade 3 winner just missed when last seen in the Possibly Perfect S., coming up a nose shy of race winner Kentucky Gal, who is also back here this afternoon for the same connections. She’s 1 for-1 over the Del Mar lawn and has trained well in the interim. Her stablemate, the aforementioned 9-Kentucky Gal, finished a wide fifth in this race last year and has also trained steadily since that narrow last stakes score.
Race #9: Selections: 1-8-9
Several of these exit the July 25 $16k maiden claiming six-furlong sprint. One that doesn’t is the Michael McCarthy-trained 1-Captain Gabe, an interesting new shooter shipping in from Churchill, having hit the board in all three lifetime starts. The colt drops from maiden claiming $50k down to today’s bottom level off the two-month freshening and has been working well over at San Luis Rey for this. 8-Cimarron Strip flashed improved speed at 30-1 returning off a six-month freshening for trainer Antonio Garcia, who is an impressive 5-for-15 (33%) this meet as of this writing. The gray Volatile gelding figures to show good early zip again this afternoon and is likely to be much tighter today, second off the bench. 9-My Box of Light rallied for the place spot at 52-1 ahead of the top choice when dropped to this level, and figures to be a handful today, making the third try of the current form cycle.
Race #10: Selections: 4-9-3
4-Yacowlef (Ire) goes first off the claim for conditioner Bob Hess, exiting an even sixth on July 26. The gelding stretches back out off the recent purchase and is likely to improve for his new connections. He’s reunited with winning pilot Hector Berrios. 9-Lyls The Crocodile (Ire) returns off a six-month layoff for the D’Amato and finished third behind the top choice when last seen back in February. The gelding is a tough horse to ride, but he figures to be making his traditional late run. 3-Steak Fries steps up in class off a sharp win over the Del Mar grass course going this one-mile trip, and this lightly raced 4-year-old has now finished first or second in all his turf starts. He comes off a career-best (84) Beyer, which is not too far off the par for this level.
