Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 8-Zakiel (Race 6)
Race #1: Selections: 2-3-4
2-On the Burner showed good speed in his first try in Southern California after shipping in from Churchill on Aug. 2 before fading to third, and now shortens back up in distance while making his third try of the form cycle. The 3-year-old colt by Practical Joke has worked twice since that effort and switches to Rosario today. 3-Smashing Machine (by Charlatan) goes turf to dirt in start number two, exiting a runner-up effort on debut Aug. 21 and figures to improve further with the move to the main track. The Baffert barn is 4-for-13 (31%) with turf-to-dirt second-time starters the past five years. 4-Cheever makes career try number seven this afternoon with several close-up finishes and competitive Beyers. The pricey Into Mischief colt makes his second start off the nine-month break and will likely improve this afternoon for trainer Mark Glatt.
Race #2: Selections: 3-7-6
The 7-year-old 3-Balladeer got back on track with a crafty gate-to-wire score on the class drop July 24 for trainer George Papaprodromou, and will use similar tactics in hope of stringing together wins for the first time in a long time moving back up the class ladder. The lightly raced 7-Path to Power (GB) surged late off a wide trip to notch an impressive 3 1/4-length maiden win in his second Stateside try on Aug. 8 for D’Amato and returns protected today with plenty of upside. Hernandez sticks. His stablemate is the battle-tested, multiple graded stakes-winning 6-Balnikhov (Ire) who makes lifetime start number 42 today, having banked over $1.1 million. His better days are obviously behind him, dropping in for today’s $50k tag, but the gelding’s back class must be respected.
Race #3: Selections: 2-7-4
One of two from the Michael McCarthy barn, 2-High Society U (by Dialed In/16% dirt sprints) moves to the main track off four turf sprint tries and may find dirt his preferred footing. A sharp five-furlong drill on Aug. 28 in :59.2 hints at improvement. The Sadler-trained 7-Convo is a logical threat off her back-to-back (70) dirt Beyers as the lone 4-year-old in this field. The daughter of McKinzie makes her second try off the eight-month layoff today, exiting a recent even third and figures to put her best foot forward this afternoon in the all-important third try. 4-First Or Last moves back to the main track, having finished second in both starts for Team O’Neill and projects to get a favorable upfront pressing journey.
Race #4: Selections: 3-7-1
The 6-year-old Irish import 3-Knight to King (Ire) makes his first Stateside try for Team O’Neill off some solid grass route tries overseas and has trained steadily for today’s unveiling. He gets Lasix and top turf pilot Hector Berrios for the leading trainer. 7-On the Whim exits a game score in the Aug. 1 California Dreamin S. and is now 2-for-2 at today’s 1 1/16-mile trip. The gelding co-tops the field’s best last-out Beyer (88) and is the horse to run down again this afternoon for conditioner Dean Pederson. 1-Shamrock Glitter (FR) hasn’t shown much in three U.S. tries for Drysdale, but returns today off the mini-freshening as a first-time gelding and has enough speed to be sent along from the rail by Rosario.
Race #5: Selections: 10-7-1-4
10-High Ambition holds the experience edge over the rest of this field with a pair of grass sprint tries under his belt for trainer Jose D’Angelo and now drops in for the $150k tag today with the move to the main track. The ridgling draws well outside with good speed and drilled a bullet three furlongs in :35.2 over the main track on Aug. 29 in preparation for this. 7-Character (by multiple G1 winner Cyberknife) debuts for the Miller barn off a steady work tab and lures Hernandez at first asking. This jockey-trainer combo is only 1-for-25 (4%) with firsters the past five years, however. Mixed feelings. Leading trainer Doug O’Neill sends out a pair in here. We’ll give the edge to 1-Fractious (by Volatile), who has trained sharply over at Los Al for this afternoon’s unveiling. His stablemate 4-Free Lunch is by Game Winner, who only clicks at 5% with his juvenile debut runners, but this jockey-trainer combo has been live all meet.
Race #6: Selections: 8-1-5
Cicero Farms 8-Zakiel adds blinkers on the turnback in distance while making career try number three for trainer Peter Eurton off an improving Beyer pattern and figures to be tough to overhaul today, switching to jockey Juan Hernandez. I’ve been chasing 1-Mickey the last pair of starts at Del Mar. He closed up for third in last and now makes his third try off the bench for Val Brinkerhoff with the move inside. Maiden Claimers stepping up into Maiden Special Weight off a solid effort is not a maneuver I usually latch on to, but 5-Strike It Solo figures to potentially clear this field this afternoon off a strong 26-1 runner-up debut try on Aug. 2. That (68) dirt Beyer matches up well here if he can repeat it against this better company.
Race #7: Selections: 4-5-3
The Carla Gaines-trained 4-Golden Sentry spurted away to an impressive 3 ¾-length maiden win on debut Aug. 6 and looks well-spotted stretching out to today’s one-mile trip this afternoon, stepping up to face stakes foes. 5-Shadow Nation could not have been more impressive on debut when breaking a step slow, quickly recovering to engage the frontrunners, before taking over and winning in hand for conditioner Mike Puype as the heavily backed chalk. The juvenile colt by Grade 1 winner Sioux Nation 3-Observed ships in from Horseshoe Indy off her maiden-breaking turf dash win on Aug. 4 when well-backed by the bettors. The juvenile colt by Mandaloun lures Hernandez for his Southern California stakes try and looked sharp working over the local grass course Aug. 30.
Race #8: Selections: 6-2-5
6-Howin is still looking for her first graded stakes victory for Team Baffert and is back for her 4-year-old campaign off a spirited worktab after nearly a year’s break. The daughter of Gun Runner figures to sit a favorable stalking journey off the bench with the barn’s go-to pilot, Juan Hernandez. The ultra-consistent 2-Magnificat has hit the board in seven of eight starts for trainer Richard Mandella and exits a solid runner-up to Sweet Azteca in the Great Lady M (G2) back on July 4. This talented gal will try two turns for the first time this afternoon and has trained well in the interim. At double-digit odds, 5-Surf Song goes turf to dirt and has the right late running style for Leparoux to pick up the pieces late in a race that’s projected to be quick early on, according to the TimeformUS pace projector.
Race #9: Selections: 11-6-7-8
A tricky competitive Maiden Special grass route kicks off the $3 Late Pick Three. 11-Vendetta is stuck on the AE’s, but certainly fits if drawing in. The Curlin filly finished a troubled trip fourth on debut Aug. 14, going this one-mile trip. 6-Graduation Day is a gray filly debuting for D’Amato by Curlin, who gets a below-average 12% with juvenile debut runners and 11% with grass routers. This top barn is a surprising 0-for-16 with turf route firsters the past five years but lures Hernandez at first asking. 7-D’yquem is one of two from the McCarthy barn. This firster is by G1 winner Golden Pal, who is a sharp 23% with juvenile firsters and 15% with turf routers. 8-Dash goes dirt to turf on the stretch-out and finished fourth behind Baffert’s Holmby in both starts, her debut on July 18, and the Aug. 9 Sorrento. She’s by Cyberknife (16% grass routes), so perhaps the additional real estate and surface switch launches some improvement.
Race #10: Selections: 9-8-1-10
9-Miss Monica kicked away to a dominant 5 ¾-length debut win on Aug. 9 for Baffert. The $850k daughter of Early Voting steps up into this Grade 1 for a conditioner that has won this race 12 times. Her stablemate 8-Holmby (by multiple Grade 1 winner Corniche) is a perfect 2-for-2 after winning the Sorrento (G3) and stretches out another furlong looking for three straight. Trainer Brendan Walsh ships out a pair of fillies. 1-Panda Listen ran away from rivals by six widening lengths in the Miss Ohio S. at Thistledown in start number two, earning an (80) Beyer, which matches up well here. 10-Fast Amy jumped 22 Beyer points from her debut to a maiden-breaking win in start number two at Ellis on Aug. 2 and returned to drill a fine five furlongs on Aug. 28 at Churchill. The daughter of Jackie’s Warrior offers plenty of upside.
Race #11: Selections: 7-4-2
Of the small group exiting the Aug. 1 turf dash, I prefer the lightly raced 7-Owl for conditioner Neil Drysdale, who made a sharp middle move up the rail before tipping outside and finishing well in the middle of the track in last, making his first start against winners. The gelding’s Beyer speed figures have increased with each subsequent try, and Rosario hops aboard this afternoon. 4-Jaguar Jon has been the gem of consistency, effective over dirt and turf. The 4-year-old gelding has finished first or second in his last five starts and is a logical threat once again for trainer Andy Mathis. 2-Speed of Elon has done little since his maiden-breaking win last March, but cuts back to a sprint in a race that’s projected to be run quickly upfront and should be unleashing a strong late rally with Valdivia.
