Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Mr. Disrespectful (Race 7)
Race #1: Selections: 3-2-4
3-Provenance is a $250k purchase by prolific sire Into Mischief debuting off a flashy work tab for Team Baffert. It’s the first runner by his dam, multiple Grade 1 winner Monomoy Girl. The juvenile colt lures the barn’s go-to pilot and leading rider, Juan Heranandez. His stablemate, 2-Plutarch, is another son of Into Mischief, and another $250k purchase, who has worked equally sharp in the a.m. 4-Intrepido holds the experience edge with an OK fourth in his July 26 debut, where he earned a solid (78) Beyer behind Baffert’s runaway race winner, Brant, and next-out winner Balboa. He’s bred to relish two turns.
Race #2: Selections: 1-4-7
1-Spearfish rallied decently for the runner-up spot despite a wide trip for most of the one-mile run on Aug. 2, facing similar, and should get a solid pace to run into again this afternoon. Kimura retains the mount. 4-Mischiefs Causeway got squeezed back and finished a troubled trip sixth off the 15-month extended break for conditioner Carla Gaines in last, and is likely to improve off that subpar try on today’s stretch out. 7-Let Seamus Go finished a disappointing seventh against tougher competition in his most recent try on July 18, but should rebound with a better effort today on the class drop and making the second start off the mini-freshening. The Justify colt does face other speed-types, however.
Race #3: Selections: 1-6-4
1-Contrary Chieftain steps up off the Mark Glatt claim off a game second-place try on Aug. 16 and should fall into a favorable upfront pressing trip. This barn is an impressive 4-for-6 (67%) with a $4 ROI the past five years with dirt route recent acquisitions at Del Mar. 6-Ready to Pounce goes first off the claim for trainer Sean Williams off a solid win over this course and distance on July 18, where he posted the field’s best last-out main track Beyer (83). This 7-year-old gelding is a six-time winner and solid repeat candidate on the class hike. 4-Father Delay looks like this afternoon’s pacesetter, dropping from $35k to today’s $20,000 level, and was a sharp winner two-back with a strong (88) Beyer when facing this caliber of claimers at Los Al.
Race #4: Selections: 5-2-9
5-Itzel crossed the wire fourth but was placed 10th for interference in her most recent try on July 18 when flashing speed against better for trainer Peter Miller. The 5-year-old mare is 0-for-5 on the DMR lawn but drops to a career-low claiming tag today and looks quickest off the blocks in this five-furlong dash. 2-Diamond Bar Gal is a multiple winner over the track and distance and has been well rested off her 9-1 upset win on May 17 at Santa Anita. 9-Sensational Z Z kicked away sharply at 14-1 against cheaper in her first start over this course back on July 31, and now moves to the grass for the first time for trainer Francisco Rodriguez. This 3-year-old filly is by Om, who gets a strong 20% with his turf sprint offspring. She switches to the top grass pilot, Hector Berrios.
Race #5: Selections: 8-7-3
8-Bazooka Charlie shortens back up to a sprint today and drops back down to the $50k maiden claiming level for conditioner Steve Miyadi off an even fourth-place finish and field’s best last-out Beyer (58). The sophomore colt gets the tepid vote in a wide-open affair. 7-Smoothwhyskygoindwn rallied for the place spot at 18-1 when finishing in front of several of these on July 31 and is a logical threat making his second start at today’s reduced level. 3-Make It a Large was rank and wide in his first start back off an eight-month layoff for conditioner Brian Koriner when finishing eighth behind Smoothwhyskygoindwn, but can move forward off that subpar performance. The 4-year-old gelding came back to fire a “best of 118” four-furlong bullet drill in :46.3 on Aug. 10.
Race #6: Selections: 11-1-4
Blinkers off 11-Brahms Mendelssohn hasn’t shown a whole lot in three career starts for trainer Brendan Galvin, but drops in for a first-time tag today on the stretch-out and has the breeding to suggest he might take to two turns effectively. He has enough early zip to get a decent forward position despite the outside draw. 1-Big Bill is a logical fit, having finished second in two of three turf tries to start his career for conditioner Mark Glatt, and gets a “key” rider switch to Umberto Risploi today. The 3-year-old gelding finished in front of several of these on Aug. 1. 4-Mav Man (by English Channel) is on the improve for trainer Leonard Powell, and makes the all-important third career try this afternoon and second start going long.
Race #7: Selections: 1-2-5
The stakes-placed 1-Mr. Disrespectful has good speed from the rail and just missed at this level by a neck on dirt four-back when finishing second (and disqualified to third) over at Santa Anita. The 5-year-old gelding moves back to the main track this afternoon off a fifth-place effort in the California Dreamin S. on Aug. 2 and has run par or better for this level on multiple occasions. 2-Kerry Gold finished with some interest to round out the superfecta despite some traffic issues in Aug. 15 grass route and now moves back to dirt on the class drop for his low-profile connections. Hernandez sees fit to hop aboard, which is an encouraging sign. 5-Canani has only one prior start on dirt, but exits a solid grass win versus similar at 9-1 for a hot barn.
Race #8: Selections 7-1-3
7-Jerry’s Spirit has never tried turf but is super quick out of the gate and has won three of his last four starts for conditioner Tim Yakteen. The gelded son of Ghostzapper is a dangerous gate-to-wire threat if he takes to the new footing. 1-Yellow Card has run first and second in both five-furlong turf tries for trainer Michael McCarthy and makes his second start off the 10-month layoff today, exiting a strong runner-up finish on July 25. The 4-year-old colt sports the field’s best last-out grass Beyer (91) and is the horse to beat today with clear sailing late. The Peter Eurton-trained 3-Incanto (Ire) drops out of four consecutive stakes events into this softer spot this afternoon and shortens back up to his preferred five panels. Berrios takes over the riding assignment.
Race #9: Selections 6-2-7
The 2024 Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner, 6-Stronghold, hasn’t been out in seven months for trainer Phil D’Amato but has trained smartly for today’s return to racing action and has proven he can fire fresh. The son of Ghostzapper should be rallying strongly in deep stretch. Trainer Bob Baffert looks for his ninth victory in the Pat O’Brien (G2). He sends out 2-Speed Boat Beach, who finished a disappointing, excusable tenth and last when returning off 492 days’ rest at Churchill on May 1, when evidently bleeding. The 5-year-old has trained swiftly for his comeback try off 3 ½ months rest and is aggressively placed for his top connections, which is a positive sign. The gritty multiple graded-stakes winning 8-year-old 7-Express Train shortens up to today’s seven-furlong trip off a series of two-turn dirt routes and should get a live race flow to enhance his late kick. He’s a three-time winner at this racetrack.
Race #10: Selections 4-5-1
4-Hello Kid O Kid O broke through in career try number 11 for conditioner Librado Barocio when making her first start over the Del Mar turf course on July 27 and looks well-placed for her first crack against winners. Hernandez is back for the return mount. 5-Shezmisbehaving rallied sharply for the runner-up spot (beaten a nose) when last seen facing similar back in late May. The 6-year-old mare has worked steadily the last several weeks off the mini-freshening and has run well over this grass course. The field’s best last-out turf Beyer adds to the appeal. 1-Guiltyofhavingfun stretches back out to a mile today off an even fifth on July 26 and is likely to move forward for conditioner Andy Mathis, making her second try off the bench. This filly’s two tries at this distance over at Santa Anita resulted in a second and third-place finish with competitive grass figures. 14-Quantum Energy sports the field’s best late pace figure in a race that’s projected to have a spirited early race flow. He’s a strong closing threat off a sharp third in last if and when he happens to draw in from the AE’s.
