Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 2-Santarena (Race 6)
Race #1: Selections: 3-4-7
First-time gelding 3-Maximum Capacity returns to Southern California this afternoon after a pair of subpar efforts in Kentucky. The 3-year-old son of Hard Spun drops in class today for McCarthy and is reunited with the winning pilot, Umberto Rispoli. He figures to get an upfront pressing trip. Route to sprint 4-Midnight Love goes first off the claim for the red-hot Craig Dollase barn. The colt exits a troubled trip fifth on August 3, and this outfit usually fires with their new acquisitions. Blinkers on 7-Always On Cay slashes his claiming tag in half and makes his second start off the bench for conditioner Bob Hess.
Race #2: Selections: 2-5-7
2-Big Hat Willie moves back to turf off the recent Ryan Hanson purchase on August 3 and has run some of his better races on grass. J J Hernandez climbs back aboard this afternoon. 5-Castle Leoch flashed speed and tired from a tough outside post on July 21 when returning off a six-month layoff, and should be much tighter second start off the bench. The 5-year-old gelding is reunited with the winning rider and returns to face softer on the class drop. 7-Margot’s Boy moves up in class, having won two straight, and figures to be the pacesetter this afternoon.
Race #3: Selections: 6-8-11
A beaten favorite in the last, 6-I’m Still in It didn’t have the cleanest of trips on August 1 when bothered at the start and racing wide. The daughter of Empire Maker worked well locally before that last effort and is eligible to improve this afternoon at this reduced level. 8-Looks Lucky is the lone firster in the field, and she debuts with Lasix. She’s by multiple G1 winner Lookin At Lucky, who gets 10% with his 3-year-old & up debuting prodigy. Trainer Dean Pederson is 4 for 20 (20%), with his Maiden Claiming first-time starters. She’s trained steadily for today’s unveiling. 11-Smiling Amy is 0 for 13 but drops down to a career-low claiming tag this afternoon and has some speed to coincide with her outside draw. She’s eligible to move forward this afternoon, making her second start off the 10-month break.
Race #4: Selections: 3-8-1
3-Lord Dunmore debuts for the red-hot Sadler barn off a spirited worktab and lures Hernandez for today’s unveiling. This 2-year-old colt is by Sire Pranceealot (Ire), who gets 13% with his juvenile debuting offspring and 19% with turf sprint starters. His stablemate is 8-Cajun Gold who has solid racing experience under his belt. The 2-year-old colt finished a good second in his August 2 unveiling and is the one to beat this afternoon with any normal second-out improvement. Top turf pilot Hector Berrios gets the return mount. 1-Cullen J is by Sir Prancealot (Ire) and is hindered by the tricky rail draw. Nonetheless, the Richard Baltas barn is a strong 4 for 14 (29%) with a lofty $5.39 ROI the past five years with turf sprint debut runners at Del Mar.
Race #5: Selections: 3-2-9
3-Ruthless Rua ships in from Kentucky off the claim and finished a good second when last seen over the sloppy going June 2 at Churchill. This barn has done well with newly acquired purchases from limited opportunities, and this filly fired a sharp three furlongs in 36 flat over this strip on August 18. 2-September Magic scampered away to an impressive 5 ½-length debut win at 8-1 on August 9 and was claimed for $50k out of that race by trainer Ryan Hanson. The son of G1 winner Audible switches to Hernandez this afternoon and might turn out to be a productive purchase. 9-Misty Muppet hasn’t been out in nine months but has trained exceptionally well for her return to action. The 3-year-old filly adds Lasix today and broke her Maiden over this course last August.
Race #6: Selections: 2-3-8
2-Santarena has run several good races without being able to break through for trainer Mark Glatt. The son of Omaha Beach tries grass this afternoon and has plenty of turf pedigree on his dam side to suggest that he should run well over turf, too. He draws well, has plenty of early zip, and should work out a winning trip today. 3-Mr. Mustache (by Upstart) has flashed some solid speed in his morning drills and gets an aggressive gate pilot for today’s unveiling. This barn is more than capable of firing with a first-time starter. 8-Running Spartan had a troubled trip fifth in his first grass try on July 27 when shuffled and pinballed back at the start. The 3-year-old gelding ran on well late despite the early mishap and gets a key rider change to Umberto Risploi today.
Race #7: Selections 5-1-3
5-Donner Lake has not been out in 11 months for conditioner Michael McCarthy but has proven he can fire off the bench. The 6-year-old trained well for today’s return effort, lures Hernandez, and should get a live race flow to close into. The 5-year-old 1-Speed Grazy earned a career-best Beyer (85) in start number 35 last start on July 26 when finishing second at this level. The hard-trying gelding fires every start and is a strong threat again despite being stuck in this condition for some time now. Blinkers on 3-Oubabe has done most of his running on turf but takes a substantial class drop today for trainer Richard Baltas and did finish second on dirt in an “off the turf” event at Santa Anita in May 2023.
Race #8: Selections: 5-1-2
Class dropping 5-She’s a Joker goes two sprints to a route for Miller and is reunited with Rispoli. She should offer some good value in a wide open Friday finale. The 8-year-old mare 1-Harper’s Gallop is back for another season off a one-year hiatus and has been training steadily for today’s return to Del Mar. The 7-time winner has proven she can fire from an extended break in the past and should work out a favorable trip with the rail draw and the meet’s leading rider. 2-Big Mama Sue rallied strongly from the back of the pack to defeat several of these at 7-1 on the class drop on July 26 and could get a similar set-up this afternoon.
