Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 6-Gypsy Woman (Ire) (Race 7)
Race #1: Selections: 6-3-2
6-April Vintage slashes her claiming tag in half off the mini-freshening for trainer Peter Miller and looks like the speed of the speed shortening up to five furlongs. The 3-year-old filly broke her Maiden over this grass course going this trip. 3-Ang N Ash goes two routes to a sprint this afternoon for conditioner George Papaprordomou and should appreciate the cutback and class relief. The other Miller-trained filly 2-Feisty Mitole returns to turf and Southern California racing after back-to-back subpar efforts at Turfway and Oaklawn this past winter. She also broke her Maiden over this grass course and has worked extremely well at San Luis Rey for her first try in six months.
Race #2: Selections 6-2-4
6-Soul of Midnight stretches out off of the June 9 Knapp claim and has trained well since that purchase. This jockey-trainer combo has done well with this barn’s recent acquisitions, going 6 for 19 (32%) with a $4.61 ROI with first off-the-claim dirt runners. The duo scored with Man Overboard ($10) last Sunday. Turf to dirt 2-Nauvoo drops in class and finished second in front of Taishan two-back. The 4-year-old gelding figures to be on or close to the lead today. 4-Taishan steps up in class from $16k to $20,000 claimers off a solid second on July 20 and is a multiple winner at today’s 1 1/16-mile trip.
Race #3: Selections: 3-4-6
The last poor effort by 3-Giovinazzo on July 27 is a toss-out. The 4-year-old colt was forced to check on the first turn and never recovered while racing wide thereafter. He’s won routing over this turf course and returned to fire a “best of 64” four-furlong bullet drill in :46.3 on August 9. 4-Hot Rocket closed well to finish fourth in the aforementioned July 27 event when making his first stateside start for trainer Michael McCarthy. The three-time winner overseas will be a big factor this afternoon if able to improve off that sharp (89) Beyer. The speedy 6-Red Cross Knight is a dangerous gate-to-wire threat if able to carve out moderate fractions on the front end for Hollendorfer. The colt rattled off some snappy splits before tiring to fourth in his most recent try two weeks ago.
Race #4: Selections: 5-7-4
5-Usha was beaten as the 2-5 chalk in her July 27 unveiling but likely gained valuable racing experience from that runner-up finish. The $600k Tiz the Law purchase will be tough to overhaul in start number two for Team Baffert. This lucrative jockey trainer combo is 7 for 16 (44%) with second-time dirt starters at Del Mar. Her stablemate is 7-Tenma, a pricey $850K OBS April purchase by Nyquist, who gets 17% with his debuting juvenile prodigy. She’s trained well for today’s unveiling. 4-Oveta’s Hobby finished well for second despite a slow start when dismissed at 22-1 in her July 21 debut and is eligible to move forward today in career start number two. The Sadler barn is having a fabulous meet.
Race #5: Selections: 9-8-1
9-Sabertooth finished a game and troubled trip second in his July 27 unveiling for conditioner Tim Yakteen and should be a handful this afternoon with any normal second-out improvement. 8-Uncle Dude ran a better-than-looks-on-paper fourth in his July 28 debut when having some traffic issues and now switches to grass on the stretch-out in start number two. The 2-year-old colt is by G1 winner Volatile, and this barn has above-average numbers with their dirt-to-turf second-time starters. Blinkers off 1-Ivan the Great goes turf to dirt on the stretch-out for Team O’Neill after showing some solid ability at Churchill and Santa Anita in both main track starts. A big factor if he takes to the lawn.
Race #6: Selections: 2-4-8
2-Unbreakable Trust is by multiple G1 winner Accelerate and debuts for Sadler and Hernandez off a spirited worktab. He’s likely to come out running at first-asking. His stablemate is the lone filly in the field 4-Cloudy Women. This daughter of G1 winner Cloud Computing was snagged for $80K from the Peter Eurton barn on her July 27 debut and flashed good speed before tiring to finish third. 8-Pali Kitten dueled on the front end before tiring to finish fifth in his five-furlong grass debut. The son of multiple G1 winner Vinno Rosso switches to dirt in start number two for Team O’Neill and drops in for the $100k tag after facing straight MDSW types in his first career start.
Race #7: Selections: 6-2-1
6-Gypsy Woman (Ire) had an eventful first U.S. start on July 21 when blocked with plenty of run for an extended period of time before shaking free and finishing third. The Mark Glatt-trained filly is by Cotal Glory (GB), who is a strong 9 for 27 (33%) with his turf route runners. With clear sailing, she should be a handful in her second stateside start while returning to the same level. The 4-year-old 2-Llorona hasn’t exactly lived up to his lofty $750K price tag but makes his two-turn debut this afternoon for trainer Richard Mandella off the mini-freshening and should try and take this field gate-to-wire. His sire is G1 winner Mendelssohn, who gets 14% with turf route runners. 1-Sixteen Arches (Ire) has hit the board in five of her last six turf route tries for D’Amato and makes the third start of the form cycle this afternoon since returning from an extended layoff. She will get another favorable ground-saving trip with today’s advantageous rail draw.
Race #8: Selections: 5-6-7
A beaten favorite in five of six career starts, 5-Mirahmadi adds blinkers back on today for team Baffert, making his second start off the mini-freshening. The pricey $1.05 million dollar son of Into Mischief is due to break through the Maiden ranks. Is today the day? Another Into Mischief son, 6-Abitmischievous, shortens back up today after finishing a good second going one mile on July 25. This 3-year-old sports the field’s best last-out main track Beyer (85) for trainer Peter Miller. 7-Shofner is a $675K purchase by Medaglia d’Oro, who gets 10% with his 3-year-old & up debuting prodigy. This colt has trained well and lures Rispoli, but the Shirreffs’ barn is only 2 for 69 the past 4 years with debut runners.
Race #9: Selections: 2-4-5
The ultra-consistent 2-Stay and Scam exits a decent third in the Daisycutter on July 27 and now stretches back out to her preferred one-mile trip while making her second start off the layoff for Team O’Neill. The 6 for 14 filly has shown the versatility to sit and pounce which should serve her well in this spot. The field’s best last-out Beyer (90) adds to the appeal. The multiple stakes-winning 4-Rose Maddox returns from the mini-freshening for trainer Steve Miyadi and ran well in her lone try over the Del Mar grass course. She has also done well at today’s one-mile trip, going (1-3-0) from five tries. 5-Moment’s Pleasure finished second behind the top choice three-back in the Fran’s Valentine Stake and defeated a bulky field in her most recent start on July 28.
