Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 7-Nuclear (Race 9)
Race #1: Selections: 1-3-5
1-Showers finished a solid second in her August 10 unveiling for Team Baffert, earning a respectable (69) Beyer figure. The daughter of Ghostzapper stretches out this afternoon for start number two and is bred to handle two turns successfully. She draws well and is the one to beat with any standard second-out improvement. Her stablemate 3-Two Bar finished an even non-threatening fourth in her July 21 debut, but the daughter of Lookin At Lucky can improve substantially in start number two. 5-Power Connection (by Authentic) finished behind the top choice in the last but goes two sprints to a route this afternoon for conditioner Todd Fincher and is bred to handle a distance of ground. 2-Lee’s Baby Girl returns to the main track after a much-improved recent effort on August 17 when routing on grass. Her first two starts on dirt were decent, so she’s shown she can handle the main track just fine. Today’s one-mile trip is where she might be most comfortable.
Race #2: Selections 8-10-3
8-C’Mon Man broke a step slow from the rail and then raced wide when angled off the inside while never having a solid chance in his most recent try on August 4 when facing similar. The 5-year-old gelding is 4 for 8 going the distance, makes his second start off the Knapp claim, and should get a live race flow to utilize his late kick. 10-Marks Hip was trounced by double digits when last seen routing at Los Al on June 29 but drops to a career-low claiming tag today while shortening up to six panels and has good speed from the outside. 3-Call My Banker flashed some early zip while wide before fading in his first start over the track on August 4 and can improve off that effort.
Race #3: Selections: 4-3-6
4-Danzing Forest finished in front of three of these same rivals on August 8 debut when a good second at 12-1, earning the field’s best grass Beyer (72). The speedy son of Danzing Candy figures to be a handful with a move forward in start number two. The 4-year-old gelding 3-Afternoon Nap makes his long-awaited debut for conditioner Carla Gaines. This barn scored with grass sprint firster Zip Om (with Fresu aboard) on August 8 when getting the best of today’s top choice. He’s trained well for today’s unveiling and is by multiple Grade 1 winner Practical Joke, who gets 13% with his 3-year-old & up debuting prodigy. 6-Desert Rocket makes the third start of the form cycle this afternoon with improving Beyers for trainer Simon Callaghan, and that July 28 event he exits from has produced a pair of next-out winners. Rispoli takes over.
Race #4: Selections: 1-8-5
1-Gracie’s Big Day drops in for a first-time tag today, exiting back-to-back runner-up finishes at Santa Rosa and Sacramento. Trainer Ed Freeman is a solid 4 for 14 (29%) the past five years with MDSW to Maiden Claiming dropdowns. Blinkers on 8-She’s My Flame also drops in for a first-time tag today for conditioner Steve Knapp. The juvenile filly finished a well-beaten second two-back to Baffert’s undefeated graded stakes winning gal Nooni. 5-Empress Lorrayne hopped at the start and spotted the field a couple of lengths in a well-backed debut on July 27 for trainer Tim Yakteen. She didn’t make up much ground late when flattening out, but this barn has solid stats with their second-time dirt sprint starters at Del Mar going 6 for 16 (38%) with a $3.56 ROI.
Race #5: Selections: 1-5-3
1-Zip Om scampered away to an impressive 3 ¼-length Maiden debut turf win on August 8, matching Beyer par for this class level for conditioner Carla Gaines. She’ll be a handful if she moves forward off that strong effort. 5-Irish Royalty exits a troubled trip fifth when having some traffic issues when third against similar on August 4. The Grazen gelding makes his third start of the form cycle today for trainer Mark Glatt. 3-Double Jab makes his second start off the eight-month layoff for trainer Andy Mathis. The 4-year-old gelding flashed speed before tiring to finish a wide fifth. Improvement is likely.
Race #6: Selections: 12-10-1
12-Princess Is Olivia rallied strongly from off the pace to score decisively against cheaper on August 8 and now goes first off the Peter Miller claim. This shrewd barn is 7 for 20 (35%) with a $2.48 ROI with newly acquired dirt sprint purchases at Del Mar for the past five years. 10-We’ll Do It Live has been ultra-consistent in 2024, going (2-3-1) from seven starts. The 3-year-old filly drops in class this afternoon for conditioner Steve Knapp while making her second start off the June 9 claim. The field’s best last-out main track Beyer (66) adds to the appeal. 1-Anna’s Wish attracted solid tote support in her first Southern California start on July 28 but finished far behind We’ll Do It Live and Perfect in Gray in a disappointing eighth-place finish. She now drops from $40k to $25,000 claimers after being snagged by the Dean Pederson barn off the claim. She’s eligible to move forward today with a race over the track. This barn is starting to heat up winning with first time starter Looks Lucky ($16.40) on Friday.
Race #7: Selections: 3-2-7
Class dropping 3-Handy Dandy returns to Southern California while making his third start off the bench today for new conditioner Bob Hess. The 5-year-old gelding loves this turf course (8-3-2-0) and is reunited with winning pilot J J Hernandez. The 5-time winner is projected to get a favorable upfront pressing trip. 2-Hurricane Cloud (GB) returns off a seven-month freshening for a good layoff barn and has run competitive turf route races at this level. 7-Bee Catcher was claimed for $30k by Team O’Neill on August 9 when running a better-than-looks troubled trip sixth. This barn has solid stats with new barn acquisitions but this gelding’s 2 for 30 record is a legitimate reason for concern.
Race #8: Selections: 5-7-1
One of the shortest-price favorites on the card will be 5-Sweet Azteca, who has won four of her first five starts for trainer Michael McCarthy and is a standout on figures. The multiple graded-stakes winning filly exits a (106) Beyer when winning the G2 Great Lady M Stakes at Los Al by five lengths on July 6 and took the G1 Beholder Mile two-back at Santa Anita with a lofty (105) Beyer. Prat flies west to ride the heavy chalk, and she’s continued to train exceptionally well in her a.m. drills. 7-Anywho finished far behind the top choice in the aforementioned Great Lady M Stakes but is eligible to bounce back in this spot for the Sadler barn. The ultra-consistent 1-Tom’s Regret has hit the board in all 12 career tries for conditioner Steve Miyadi. The 4-year-old filly has trained well over the local surface and makes her Del Mar debut this afternoon.
Race #9: Selections: 7-1-11
The John Sadler-trained 7-Nuclear ran a game second when dropped in for a first-time tag on August 3 when facing three of these same rivals and deserves another chance to break through at this $62,500 Maiden Claiming level. 1-Mysterious Husband has not broken well in both grass route tries but goes first off the claim today for trainer Doug O’Neill, and this barn is a solid 4 for 16 (25%) with a $2.09 ROI the past five years with turf route recent acquisitions at Del Mar. A better start and the rail draw give him an outside chance. 11-The Old Nine (Ire) drew a tough outside post but drops in for a first-time tag today for new conditioner Richard Baltas and switches to top turf pilot Umberto Rispoli. 2-Caribbean King drops in class to face straight Maidens in start number 14 after facing winners. This gelding crossed the wire first in February but was DQ’d for a substance violation.
