Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 1-Den of Iniquity (GB) (Race 2)
Race #1: Selections: 1-4-7
1-McLaren Vale has not won since October 2022 but comes off a tough trip third-place blanket finish in a short field on May 4 and has been gelded since that effort. He drops in for a career-low claiming tag today for Sadler and sports the field’s best last-out Beyer by far with a sparkling (94). The obvious knock is the short price. 4-Arrogates Spirit just missed by a neck against this level on June 16 and makes the third start of the form cycle this afternoon with an improving Beyer pattern. He’s defeated 7-Hardmoneymuchachos twice. The California Chrome gelding steps up in class in good form and likes this one-mile trip.
Race #2: Selections: 1-6-3
1-Den of Iniquity (GB) returns off the mini-freshening and drops in for a tag for the first time in six stateside starts while returning to the Michael McCarthy barn. The 4-year-old filly did her best running for this outfit and gets Rispoli back in the saddle. 6-Ima Joker has been knocking on the door against straight Maiden Special Weight types in several close-up finishes, hitting the board in five of eight career tries. She’s a big threat today while dropping in for a first-time tag but the barn is 0 for 33 the past five years overall with MDSW to Maiden Claiming dropdowns. 3-In Your Life goes two sprints to a route today for Eurton and could find herself on a clear lead this afternoon.
Race #3: Selections: 3-6-1
Blinkers on 3-Dramatizer returns off 11 days rest and slashes his claiming tag in half for conditioner George Lopez exiting a non-threatening wide fourth-place finish. A tepid call in a wide-open race. 6-Jubilant Joanie ships in here, having won two straight, including a recent 1 ¼-length score at Louisiana Downs on July 1 with an (81) Beyer. The filly lures Hernandez for her Southern California unveiling and first try around two turns. Her breeding suggests routing over the main track should be in her wheelhouse. 1-Sweet Hello has speed from the rail and drops in for a career-low claiming tag for Hess. She’s sure to be aggressively sent by Maldonado from her inside slot.
Race #4: Selections: 3-8-9
The Stanford filly 3-Envisioned has won back-to-back 1,000-yard dashes under the lights at Los Al for trainer Brian Koriner. This 3-year-old may forget to stop on this speed-friendly main track if able to shake free while stretching out to 5 ½ furlongs. 8-Little Lady Lou defeated two next-out winners in her most recent win at Pleasanton on July 5, posting a career-best Beyer, and now makes the third start of the form cycle this afternoon. Kentucky invader 9-Princess Is Olivia adds blinkers on the class drop for new conditioner Bob Hess, and her two four-furlong drills over this local main track have been halfway decent.
Race #5: Selections: 6-7-3
A challenging five-furlong turf sprint for juvenile fillies closes the Thursday early pick-five with few inspiring first-out barns or sires to speak of here. 6-Grazen Gator is one of two Peter Miller-trained fillies entered here and attracts Rispoli for today’s unveiling of an average work tab. She’s by Grazen, who gets just 7% with his debuting 2-year-old prodigy but 17% with turf sprinters. 7-Nell’s Legacy, debuting for the Phil D’Amato barn, is by multiple grade 1 winner Ghostzapper and has trained smartly for today’s first start. This barn rarely wins first out, however. D’Amato is 1 for 24 with turf sprint debut runners at Del Mar for the past five years. 3-One Time Tam is one of only a few fillies with previous racing experience. She broke slowly in her Los Al debut on July 6 but made up decent ground late to finish sixth. Improvement is likely.
Race #6: Selections: 3-5-4
3-Bart Sip Some (by multiple grade 1 winner Stay Thirsty) stretches out in start number two for conditioner Richard Baltas, exiting an even third-place finish at Los Al on June 30. The 3-year-old gelding could find himself on a clear lead this afternoon. 5-It’s My World was a much-improved second when moved to the main track in start number two and now switches to Hernandez today for the all-important third career try. This jockey-trainer combo is 4 for 10 (40%) with a $3.78 ROI with overall dirt starters. 4-Silver N Black returns off nearly a year layoff for conditioner Bob Hess and has trained well for today’s one-mile main track try. It’s likely an encouraging sign that there’s no panicky drop in class this afternoon.
Race #7: Selections: 5-2-1
A winner of two of four starts, 5-Sharp Ride, returns off the mini-freshening for trainer Dean Pederson and should get a live race to flow to flatter his good closing kick. This barn is 5 for 10 (50%) with a $6.40 ROI with horses returning off 61-180 days’ rest at Del Mar. A multiple winner over this course, 2-Wishtheyallcouldbe exits back-to-back runner-up finishes at this level and identical (73) Beyers. The lightly raced 1-No Cap adds blinkers off a decent third-place finish at this level in her last try at Los Al and switches to Hernandez today on the barn change.
Race #8: Selections: 7-3-5
7-The Scent is worth a try at first asking in a wide-open finale for conditioner Paul Aguirre. This 3-year-old gelding by Enticed fired a sharp five-furlong main track gate drill here on Aug. 1, and the barn is 2 for 3 with debut turf runners. Both winners were big numbers: Shamrockin (54-1) on Jan. 14 at Santa Anita and Missed Call (10-1) back on June 2, 2022. A beaten favorite in the last, 3-Red On Sunday goes turf to dirt in his second start off an eight-month layoff for trainer Peter Miller and should move forward today. His stablemate, 5-Capital Outlay, has run third in four consecutive turf sprints at this level and is a logical threat again. He’ll break through one of these days. 2-Danzing Forest (by Danzing Candy) has fired some snappy a.m. drills for today’s debut over the local main track, but this barn is only 1 for 50 the past 5 years with debut runners. 8-Zip Om (trained by Carla Gaines) is by Om, who is 3 for 15 (20%) with his 2-year-old debuting prodigy and 3 for 12 (25%) with turf sprinters.
