All statistics unless stated other wise are situation specific. Example Last 5 years 1st Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Any mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
Expect typos and grammar errors! Time is of the essence and I do not even have the budget for intern around here.
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I will be covering the Early Pick 5, plus any strong plays, stakes, MSW late on cards. You can find John Pinder’s work on the late Pick 5 under the Gulfstream Park menu as well here at Inthemoneypodcast.com
Early Pick 5 all A’s for .50 = $30 ticket.
R1 – 1 4 5 7 11
R2 – 2 5
R3 – 3 4
R4 – 1 3 5
R5 – 8 B – 2 3 4 5 6 7
Race 1
A LINE for me includes the obvious with not much separating the group,
1 Bella Mandy is likely to be favored with Irad and if breaks clean will save ground. Has made the progressive drop from MSW’s to this level. This question mark is the barn change. Barn is 12% 1st off the claim the last 5 years but claiming off Victor Barboza can be a tough task.
4 Balala is the one I would put on top. The Oct. 20th race fits with the other experienced runners and Saffie claimed her that day. Saffie did not take to the turf route last time and now gets back to sprinting while taking the blinkers off. Gets Lasix, but I will not mention that much in these races as everyone in here is allowed lasix for the first time.
7 Stubold I want on tickets although beaten by Bella Mandy last time she was closing the gap late and Ruiz should be back riding today which I think is a slight jockey upgrade in this spot. Ruiz has done well sprinting on the tapeta.
11 Lily Bird ran well last time with the addition of blinkers showing good speed although a bit one paced the entire way. Looks to get the same trip today.
B LINE
5 Sublime Mission is the price I would throw in of the “others” I liked the gate work I watched from Nov. 17th although did not run a step on debut. This is the type Lasix could be a difference maker. O’ Connell is only 1 for 12 in this spot but 75% in the money.
C LINE
10 Blazin’ Praline I have no workout information on this filly but the barn can surprise with one every once in a while.
12 Spin Size I do not expect to run but if she does would be off a weeks rest. Has not ran a step in 2 starts but has early speed in the mornings before tiring. Connections seem to be racing her into shape.
Race 2 comes down to if you believe and/or trust the favorite.
Potential Wager – If the math works out which will all depend on the price of the 2. A potential Win bet of the 2 and backing up with a 5 over 2 Exacta.
LONE A 2 Crypto Man drops to the lowest level of his career and look to be totally loose on the front end. Saffie looks to have been searching for the right spot for this one trying Tapeta, Turf, and dirt sprinting the last three races. You get Saffe/Edgar/Class Drop/Lone Speed etc. But if you have doubts will give a couple other options as Crypto Man has thrown in a clunker before.
LONE B is the 5 Performante who has a dirt route Sept 6th nearly as good as anything Crypto man has done. This one ran well last time at this level with Alvarado aboard.
Other
3 Heathcliff’s only dirt start was prior to adding Lasix and is one that I have seen work just fine on the dirt prior.
8 Lomachenko tries the dirt for the first time with an outside post so I suppose if you are searching for someone he would not totally shock me.
Race 3 has a similar question as Race 2, Do you trust the Favorite?
OFF TURF – This is the only race in the early sequence that was scheduled on the grass, and the surface change brings more reason to be against the favorite.
A LINE
3 Vespera I will be honest it made my head hurt to put this horse as a Lone A, but there are reasons. Nothing clever from me on this filly though. Clement / Irad/ 1st Tag/ 1 LX / The question being can she route.
4 Better Than Better ( Moves to the A line with the surface change having the only tapeta experience in the field) Lone Turf Route on Oct 18th was similar to the 1 horse. Closed with a inside trip and seas parted the entire way and almost got up.
B LINE are two very similar horses with reasons I cannot put in the A LINE. If you doubt the 3 ability to get the distance then you want these 2 as well.
1 Hippy Hippy Shake went off a 45-1 last time and got an absolute dream trip. The odds of her getting that trip again are higher than the 45-1 she was last out but she did run well finishing with interest late.
Others
The 2’s Pedigree has nothing suggesting turf route and oddly enough the 5 6 7 8 all have been Vet scratched here at GP since their last race. I will need to see something from any of these before considering.
Race 4
A LINE I will use a few in here equally with no clever opinions here paper pretty much tells the story.
1 Fede traveled well last time when trying the route of ground but had nothing when asked the question. She cuts back to a sprint and I think could have more speed to give than has previously shown. I have her and the 5 right together on my figures dirt sprinting.
3 Bella Cleopatra most definitely can win but I do not see her deserving of the favorite roll. She had no real excuse last time simply being out finished in the lane.
5 Just a Philly I was heavy on last time when breaking her maiden as she had shown a great deal of improvement since the debut. If she clears to the rail they will have a tough time running her down.
B LINE
2 Kip the Distance has plenty of experience and although well beaten in many starts those races were versus much tougher company. She would not shock me to win but more likely to run 3rd…
4 Fontana Di Trevi is another I think is more likely to get a piece than win. She was not fast enough to get the lead last time but sit right behind the pace with a good trip and drew away being slightly geared down late. It would not take much of a step forward to put her equal to the favorites.
Race 5 ends this pick 5 with a maiden claimer that is wide open !! Or is it? I am all but 1! or just 1!
2 Ayman for Orseno who is 2 for 13 in this particular spot. This one worked on the tapeta back on Oct. 20th and went easy showing fitness on the gallop out and has recent fast work on the tapeta but could not find that one on video.
3 How About It for Abreu who usually does not drop them in for a tag this quickly. OLD work notes prior debut couple Dirt works with nothing negative and had some turfy knee action.
4 Kantharos Jr I have zero work info on for a trainer that has only 3 first time starters in the last 5 years. 2 of them ran 3rd at huge odds with Reyes aboard.
5 Iron Sword I watched a couple works with nothing negative and both works went on even terms with 2 different mate that both have won at the maiden claiming level.
6 Davola for Servis had an less than stellar turf work prior to its last where this gelding was washed out and lathered. Has the classic speed and fade lines for 2 races. Lasix could be key and Reylu on the front end is always dangerous.
7 Friolento has the best race of the group which came on debut on grass. Then did no running on the dirt before disappearing for an extended period of time. Connections entered this one on Nov 29th for Maiden 25K only to be a vet scratch.
8 Bucchero’s Dude is the one I want some action on. I have only watched 1 work on Nov. 20th from the gate that is on XBTV and is called the OUTSIDE Runner.. Break sharp under a monster hold, running through the bit and climbing, then drew away from his mate Happy Sunday full of run on the backside…. Now here in lies a bit of an issue.. The clocker report from Happy Sunday that ran on Dec. 13th…. has some confusion calling Happy Sunday best and drawing away… I believe that to be inaccurate and a honest mistake.
Stats – Yates is 0 for 4 with first out tapeta sprinting for a tag… But 23% with all first timers sprinting on debut for a tag with those wins coming on the dirt.
Race 8 The Cash Run Stakes
Lone A – 7 Sweet Note is one I want a Moderate Win Wager on. This filly won on debut for Walsh and then stretched out to the 1 turn mile being beaten by a dozen by Book’em who is one I have on my Oaks Watchlist.
Going by my figures her last lays over this field.
Race 9 Dania Beach Stakes is super interesting and looks to go through Mark Casse. I do wonder if he runs both colts here with both being speed and if they both go I cannot imagine they will both send taking the risk of running each other in the ground. If one of the two scratches I will update here with a strong vertical play.
A LINE UPDATE – This one was going to be great betting race but with the surface change this one becomes wide open.
TURF ONLY BELOW – NO ACTION WITH SURFACE CHANGE
2 Dream On SCRATCHED – I would assume will be the shorter price of the two Casse’s after leading the way in the Juvenile Turf but was a sitting duck the last 16th. Irad gets the mount which all but guarantees favoritism.
4 Mi Bago was on the AE’s for Juvenile Turf not getting in so ran on the under card getting hung in traffic and by the time this colt got room to run the race was over. Last time here at Gulfstream he was impressive and much best.
8 Hammerhead is one I must have on some tickets. I know Kevin Attard record here at Gulfstream is low year after year but from a visual stand point this one has showed some talent. Would suggest watch the replays of this colt when he is given rein he just changes gears like a car… The maiden breaker he looked to figure it all out! No clue why connections ran him on the synthetic last time.
