With the early first post scratches likely will come out last minute. I will try to come back an update with tickets if time allows.
IMPORTANT TURF NOTE – There is a turf rail splitting the track similar to Pegasus Day
Races 5 , 7 , 10 , 13 NO rail which Pegasus day was speed favoring. I would rate this more of a bias than closers on the outside course.
Races 1 , 3 , 8 , 12 Rail is at 59 Foot which played to closers on Pegasus day although I think the closers where the more logical horses.
Early Races is usually where I find my stronger opinions on the big days, today I thought some the early races did not have much clarity.
Race 1 rail is out at 59 feet. I would suspect many will cave man tickets here with the ALL button. No one really stood out to me, I can make a case for nearly everyone in here. Wish I had more to offer in a tough race, but unless I get some scratch help this race will be a pass for me. If the 13 and 14 somehow draw into this field I would use 11, 13, 14 and play a early pick 5.
So will just mention a few I think will be longer prices.
11 – Artemus I though ran a big race on debut at 44-1 moved early to get to the lead and stayed on fully extended trying hard the entire stretch run before being overtaken late. I think this one will drift up in price.
With the 13 and 14 not getting in the race, I may single this horse on a small Pick 5 just in case I am right, but will be only for .50 and I will play the pick 4
Race 2
A – 1 Big City makes his 3rd start for D’Angelo who is 3 for 6 in this spot. Will get some tote attention coming out the Speak Easy debut. Has a slight edge figure wise by my numbers and has showed enough speed to clear from the rail unless one of the first timers press the issue.
A – 6 Acclaimed Victor made his debut at Tampa in impressive fashion. Broke slow then moved out 3-4 wide picking up horses down the backside, mid turn angled in to the rail steadily picking up spots then angled back out to middle of track. Looked like a video game. Pletcher is 22% in this spot, recent work mates. Kingsbarns, Speak Easy , Locked all of those works he fell back on the out but held his own early.
A – 8 Jefferson Street ran well on debut back in early September racing wide and made a good move getting to General Partner late in the turn before flattening out. Mott is 20% in this spot, with Junior 26% I liked his works prior to debut and looks to have stepped his game up since coming back to the work tab.
B’s – 3 and 4
I have had enough of Be You long ago…..
Race 3
A – 6 Silent Heart I was surprised to see entered in here and is super talented. I think will rate right off the pace sitter and if Lynch did not think he could get the mile then he would not be entered here.
A – 9 Triple Espresso took a big step forward last time breaking his maiden. Distance should be no problem judging off his last and gets an outside draw so if the speedsters pack it in he can pick them up late, I do not like this horse but he is the safe backup if I am wrong about Silent Heart.
B – 4 Tocayo could be on a dead send mission, but will need the 2 sprinters to rate to have the lead. Since moving to the turf he is 2 for 5 including the upset in the Diana Beach and ran well in the Kittens Joy. Several in here that are going take money are facing winners for the first time, this one is battled tested….
B – 7 Royal Majesty I think will be over bet. I scored on him last time but it took the entire stretch to make up 2 lengths and maybe that is good enough today but I was expecting more last time.
Race 4 is very tough with many trying the tapeta for the first time and most have not been this far. Another race early that could make a case for nearly every runner in here.
A – 6 Rockemperor has a large class edge and the distance is not a question. He has never ran on the Gulfstream Tapeta but was less than a length at Deauville from being 2 for 2 on synthetic.
A – 8 Legacy Isle at 30-1 I have to bet something on in here, I have notes on this one loving the tapeta from back in December and have been waiting on him to run on it. THEN!!!! He enters in this loaded spot going longer than I anticipated. I do not play many bombs but I will here.
A – 10 Exact Estimate has an outside post and is tactical, should be able to sit outside right off the pace and has gotten the distance on the turf.
B – 3 Ohana Honor has showed plenty of talent on the grass now tries the tapeta, distance should not be an issue.
C – 1 Armstrong loves the tapeta and should save ground. Has only faced older once prior and the distance is a question.
C – 2 Skyro see Above Armstrong
Race 5 will make your head spin, the rail is at zero but there is a ton of speed in here.
A – 2 JP Hellish comes out a loaded Optional race on Pegasus day where he ran a nice race holding on for 2nd costing me a ton. I had bet Headline News to win and an Exacta with the winner over Headline News so I am kinda holding a grudge…. Javier rides this one back with an inside post again, will look to save ground and see if the speed come back.
A – 8 Tiz Romantic has ran 4 very fast tapeta routes since Saffie claimed him back in the fall. Both turf routes prior he ran solid in both efforts. If Stat draws into the field I expect Edgar to change mounts and I would pivot to Stat as my top selection.
A – 11 Quality G is one that I am not a big fan of although he does make his own trip every time and has an outside post here. This race could be a bit chaotic so a good trip is always a postive.
SCRATCH A – 14 Stat likely will not get in the field, but if he does would be my top pick regardless of the wide post.
B – 5 English Bee gets some class relief in here. Won his come back race in January of 2023 being a new gelding since then has been in versus some serious horses.
B – 6 Rick Manager has not been seen since May when he won his first start for Maker. Could be too far back but if the pace gets hot could trip out being the closer that saves ground.
B – 9 Never Surprised showed some big talent as a 3 year old and ran 2nd in the Pegasus in 22′.
C’s Everyone Else – If somehow could design a string of singles the ALL button would not be out of the question.
Race 6 I thought was one of the more interesting races on the card. If you believe in the favorite its simple but if you have doubts this is a very deep race.
A – 5 Kingsbarns will be favored in here but why? Won his first 3 starts routing with soft paces, took money on the 1st Saturday in may and ran for 3/4’s of a mile, and was pointed for the Belmont before having a colic issue and ended of running at Monmouth and getting beat by a mediocre Brad Cox horse. He gets an A spot but I will likely toss him……
A – 7 Vivir Con Alegria is super interesting from an unknown stand point. I know more about Blue Grass Downs than I do Delta Downs, so not sure how those races stack up but they appear fast. The last race was 1.5 off a 20 year old track records which not sure what that will get you here.
A – 8 Howling Time has not strung together consecutive races since 2022. Won sprinting on debut then had a nice 3 year old campaign 10-1 vs Kingsbarns even money. If this horse looks good in the post parade I would rather have him over Kingsbarns at the same price even.
So with all the question marks above are these B’s not A’s undecided…
B – 9 Positive Review has an outside post for Saffie with Zayas. Does have some gaps on the form but also has some very nice efforts, Feb 2nd I called this one best over O Conner ….
C – 2 Lightning Tones is coming back a little quick in this spot, but if the pace heats up he will be grinding away late. I got him home underneath for a nice Exacta last time when running behind Concrete Glory who is a tough foe.
Race 7 RAIL is at Zero
A – 1 Main Event at first glance was going to be a toss, but the rail is at zero and looks to be completely loose in here. Like him or not the fractions he set on Pegasus day was impressive.
A – 2 Anglophile ran well last time but I was expecting a bit more from him that day. He took a big step forward with the addition of blinkers back in August and I hate to leave him off my tickets after backing him last time.
A – 3 Headline News 12-1 came up short on Pegasus day for me. I will decide if I forgive him after today, this is a big ask but he looks as if he can run all day and should get first run on Main Event.
A – 10 Kingmax should have won 2 back and then performed well last time. My concern is he will be too far back in here with the rail being at zero could leave him to much to do late.
Race 8 Rail 59 feet.
A – 3 Ozara is 3 for 5 after winning her last two here at Gulfstream impressively, she got good trips in both did not leave a reason to doubt her.
7 Life’s an Audible has never impressed me until winning the Sweetish Chant last time, when Irad went to the stick she changed gears and took off. Previously she was bit same pace and flat when asked.
Ozara is the horse to beat but there a few talented quirky horses in here. The scratch of Dancing N Dixie changes this for me quite a bit.
B / Underneath Horses
9 Time To Dazzle when Casse gets this filly to settle she will be tough. Last time in the Ginger Brew she was rank from the beginning then got carried out wide really never had a chance. The Dec 15th win on the tapeta she was pretty much a run off with Bravo sitting back in the irons at one point trying to keep her under control.
11 Pounce was never asked a step when breaking her maiden last time, Javier lightly kept her task in the stretch and she rolled home.
After scratch horses I had to consider underneath
5 Macanga
Trifecta – I will try to get my price horses underneath in here, using Ozara on top. Reversing this around a bit and will build at least 1 small increment ticket with Life’s an Audible out….
3
7
5,9,11
Race 9 I am boring like most opinions in this spot.
A – 3 Just FYI is the 2YO Filly Champ, 3 for 3, and the horse to beat.
B/2nd – 2 Leslie’s Rose will be the clear 2nd betting choice here and I will not argue that. Not sure I would want be all in on an exacta but she is the most likely to run 2nd.
The only way I see a way to make money here is be right on who runs 3rd.
6 Queen’s Martini is the horse I want to press in 3rd. She won her debut impressively then came back 6 months later running well last time when doing her job just was no match for Power Squeeze late. The only question I have is where has she been 2 months since the Cash Run.
Race 10 I am singling the obvious with the risk someone get wire this field with the lack of pace and no rail.
10 R Cali Kim is 4 for 6 for Walsh and the key for me is the last actually which she had every chance to go by when the rail opened, but this mare needs to be outside and maybe I am wrong but I think she wins last time if was outside of Alpha Bella. Tyler is 4 for 4 riding this mare and he just needs to move before Miss Yearwood.
Exacta – If the price is right I will play an exacta here with 8 Miss Yearwood under R Cali Kim, she is 3 for 6 on the turf and will have much to do late but this field is not very good.
Pick 3 starting here using my A”s 10 / 5 / 3,6
Race 11 I am fairly obvious with the 2 best horses coming out of the Fred Hooper but we will not get near the prices today. Pegasus day I completely dropped the ball building tri’s with Steal Sunshine in 1st and 2nd, but failed to build one with him in 3rd while only using the top 3 anywhere. Still kicking myself over that ……
A – 5 Tumbarumba was an absolute gift on Pegasus day, I had committed myself to Steal Sunshine and missed the chance at 8-1. Looks to get the same trip today and is the horse to beat, but hard to take a short price after just narrowly holding on last time.
B – 4 Il Miracolo is interesting cutting back in distance and appears to be a much better horse than he was in early 2023.
I was going to use Steal Sunshine but then I decided we are getting divorced!! So that may elevate him just enough…..
Possible Trifecta
5
4
3 6
Race 12 Rail 59 feet
A – 3 Emmanuel won this race a year ago although he did get a start in before hand which was when he set the track record at Tampa. 1 for 1 at Gulfstream, 2 for 2 at this distance and is tactical enough he can lead or sit off. I have to give Atone the slight edge due to class but if Emmanuel and Atone both bring their best either one of them could get their picture taken.
A – 6 Atone‘s last win was the 2023 Pegasus since then has been hot and cold. Although I still do not see how he went off at 35-1 last time, I know the Dec 2nd race was an optional 62,500 but the 2 horses he ran behind that day are fast horses. This year’s Pegasus he did get a perfect trip but getting beat 2 Lengths by Warm Heart is an accomplishment.
B – 1 Saratoga Flash is a bit interesting. If Giant Game runs in the race at Tampa then Zayas could find himself alone on the lead. The Kentucky Downs race in Sept was impressive, then set a blistering pace on the tapeta in Dec, and last time was in the 12 hole never really getting any kind of early position. Has not ran a bad race since moving to Saffie’s barn, more of an underneath shot but for the bomb only players this maybe their horse.
Race 13 NO RAIL I struggled separating these and will be spreading without some last minute information to pull me in a direction. Nothing hidden about any of these runners in my opinion.
A – 2 Candy Light I have to have this mare on tickets, 1 for 1 since moving to Saffie barn winning a fast tapeta race. The inside post gives her that chance to trip out saving ground and think she has the ability to be a little closer to the pace than appears on paper.
A – 3 Be My Sunshine had no excuse last time at Tampa she was not going by period. I have always liked this filly although I do question why Edgar is not on her, maybe he thinks he can wire this field with Time Passage? I will stick with her but that does give me some hesitation.
A – 4 Spansive is a price horse I would not mind taking a shot on. Her first 3 starts she was on or near the lead with slow paces, but her come back race here at Gulfstream she was the only horse making up any ground late and that race was going 7.5 furlongs with the rail down so I give her a little extra credit.
A – 5 Walkathon I think will get overlooked and drift up in price, I have heard people say the opposite but Be My Sunshine was not going by her at any point last time. She did get a bit of a soft pace but Gallardo shook the reins and she responded strong leaving some in reserve.
A – 6 Chili Flag ran a big race last time closing against what appeared to be a bias that day, and was cutoff by barn mate a bit in the stretch. She was not winning but cost her a roughly estimated 3/4’s of length. Looks to be a short price I would want to have on tickets, but not one that I could win bet at a short price.
B – 9 Time Passage 30-1 filly is 6 for 15 lifetime, but 0 for 2 on the turf. My biggest question I mentioned above why is Zayas here and not on Be My Sunshine? She could be loose …….
Race 14 Not going to dive too deep here, because everyone will start talking about this race the moment it is drawn and spend way to much time on it. I do not imagine I am going tell you anything you have not already heard….
Surprise scratches change this one for me.
A – 1 Speak Easy comes out of one of the fastest 7 furlongs races that has been run at Gulfstream since 2020 unless I missed one… Doing that on debut is impressive
B – 5 Dornoch of course should be the favorite, we have seen the replay of him fighting back at the rail played over over over and over. OH yea did you hear ? He is a full to Mage! I wonder if anyone told him? He has done nothing wrong in 4 starts but I wanna see him come back before I hand him the title.
