Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Any mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
Expect typos and grammar errors! Time is of the essence and I do not even have the budget for intern around here.
Please feel free to leave Comments or reach out to me on Twitter (@c_cupples) with any questions and/or suggestions.
I will be covering the Early Pick 5 in detail, and quick thoughts on rest of card.
You can find John Pinder’s work on the late Pick 5 under the Gulfstream Park menu as well here at Inthemoneypodcast.com
The NEXT TWO WEEKS…… The NHC see is fast approaching and with more tracks drawing cards early I think it changes the game a bit. March 7th, 8th , 9th… I am 50/50 if I will be writing up Gulfstream as instead I will be digging into cards for NHC Weekend. I will definitely try.
March 14th 15th 16th is the NHC so I will not have anytime to get anything out.
FOUTAIN OF YOUTH CARD
I was excited to dig into this card earlier in the week and the deeper I got into the races the less intriguing I found it, unable to get past the chalk in most spots and finding little to offer than what is already staring at us all on paper. Now with that being said it is still full of great racing to watch with quality horses.
I will be keeping things abbreviated today as there are 14 races.
UPDATE – Slight changes or adds in Races 2 , 10 and 14.
Tickets and Strategy today…. I am narrow in lots of places and will be firing today.
Race 1 Starts the early pick 5. TWO THINGS… We get to see the pools and who is taking money and the there is a Pick 5 starting in Race 3 that is more player friendly which is on Saturday’s only.
LONE A – 6 Indy Bay makes her first start for Saffie with Edgar Up, has experience, and gets Lasix. Going 7 furlongs give me the experienced runner and should get a decent price as there are some horses in here with some buzz.
Race 2 (CHANGE) has lots of options with older horses that are lightly raced and has one key AE 14 Fredo if draws in will ensure a hot pace. I will use these three equally but I also will consider singling my top pick because on Saturday’s only there is a Pick 5 starting in Race 3 with a lower takeout and retail only.
A LINE
3 Clever Mischief has showed up in all 4 turf starts so it’s hard to fault him but I do think he needs to improve. Could sit the perfect trip with an inside post.
4 Rotterdam is my top selection here and will get a WIN bet from me. He is tactical and I have his turf races here at Gulfstream better than anyone else in the field.
5 Mount Horeb I will use as he did run fast last time but had a great trip and had the entire stretch to get up but could not pull it off.
13 Born Flashy moves into my A LINE – Draws into the race and Edgar elected named this one first option so he gets off my top selection. This will be the first route for Born Flashy with the addition of Blinkers.
Other – If playing verticals the 14 and 15 draw into the field. Either could hit the board and the pace takes a drastic change as well.
Race 3 PICK 5 starts here as well and is retail only. I would prefer to play here over the early Pick 5 especially if you do not have strong opinions in Races 1 and/or 2.
A LINE
1 Into Pleasure would be no match for the Speak Easy we seen on debut. Like Speak Easy this one comes with a red flag that will force me to using a third runner. Both wins he has been drawn outside and now breaks from the rail.
3 Speak Easy will be a very short price. He ran a monster race on debut then ironically his next start was to be in the Fountain of Youth but got loose prior to the race required some stitches etc. Came back on July 27th and won convincingly but the 97 beyer for that race is not a figure I believe to be accurate. In short I want to see the debut again before I invest.
5 Classify is the safe alternative being drawn outside of the other two main contenders and is very consistent, although his best does not stack up with either of my other A’s best races.
Race 4
A LINE
1 Classic Q was impressive in her second start sitting outside of the leader and Dylan never asked this filly for her best. If she has more to give then will give her stablemate a run for the money.
5 Vixen is the class of the field and will be bet accordingly. I was not impressed by any of her route races as a 2 year old where I thought she lacked finish. Her come back race last out she was much best and I thought she took a step forward but not enough to take a short price.
B LINE
6 Civetta is a nice filly but much like the favorite she has lacked finish late almost appears to wait on other horses. Maybe the blinkers change things.
Race 5 is one the races that I think would give a morning line maker a headache….
A LINE
3 Enlighten is 2 for 4 turf routing and two loses came in 2023 versus 3 year old only maiden company which does not sound so positive but those loses came to Cugino and Hammerstein (underrated). After nearly a year off came back to win two in a row right here at Gulfstream Park.
8 Echo Lane was too far back when he faced Enlighten two races back and ran a big race last out although I do not see him running any faster than he did that day. What I absolutely love about this colt is he leaves it all on the track and he also is tactical enough to make his own trip.
B LINE – 2 6 10 11
Race 6
A LINE
1 Camp Evans has put in solid mornings since back in the summer and the couple works I watched there were no knocks on this colt. Saffie is 26% with 1st Timer/Dirt/Sprint/MSW – narrow that down to at GP with Edgar how about 43% and just the races going 7 furlongs. 6 for 12….
4 Shangrala Road should take money as there is a work I watched that Catching Freedom was second best to this colt the entire way. I have been against most of the Cox runners here at Gulfstream Park but not this one.
9 Disrupter did not live up to expectations on debut taking a ton of money and was working like a sure thing but had no excuse. Of course Pletcher has nice stats in this scenario.
With only 1 Other I had interest in, I likely will use this horse as an A.
B – 7 Chillax I only watched one gate work. Broke sharp immediately held went easy nothing negative.
Race 7
LONE A – There is no question that the 8 Mi Bago is the horse to beat after being an AE in the BC Juvenile turf had to settle for the undercard but never got a chance to run until the race was over. He was much the best in the Pulpit really while never in danger of losing then won on the tapeta as well. There is some pace in here but this one does not need the lead and should sit right off the pace.
B LINE – 1 4 6 9 10
Race 8 – Nothing clever here
LONE A – 4 La Cara is not likely to get the quick lead as she did at Tampa but she does not need it.
LONE B – 6 Ballerina d’ Oro could most definitely win but does not makes sense to use both her and La Cara. Super talented filly and ran a big race last time sitting in traffic and when Dylan gave her rein she took off. She was entered on Feb 15th at FG but opted here instead. She did not work that day so makes me question plans a bit….
The Queens MG I will have no where, I have never thought much of it and been wrong on a couple of occasions.
Race 9 is another spot I did not find much outside the favorites who are difficult to separate.
A LINE is the obvious
3 Fort Washington has yet to win here at Gulfstream which is a bit of a surprise as well as he has ran here. Often is left too much to do late which does give the slight edge to his main competition.
4 Major Dude had to check late in the Pegasus Turf but after traveling 3 wide I do not think Irad had a ton of horse regardless. I think he is better going the 8.5 furlongs and has a tactical edge on Fort Washington.
B – 1 5 UPDATE – I had a typo with the 6 Here
Race 10 I am going back to the well which saves some typing went back to my Pegasus Day Analysis … Copy Paste..
LONE A – 1 Forever After All – Not getting 6-1 today and have a few less horses to contend with… Copy/Paste – 10 Forever After All will be my top pick in here as she has been many many many times before! Oct 20th she got on the inside of the turf at Keeneland when battling with Chop Chop late and that was not where you wanted to be that day yet she still nearly won. Oct. 24th – Loosing to Mrs Astor is ugly on paper but she was best that day with a trouble tripped. Dec 26th she was reeling in La Mehana just ran out of race track.
Lone B is the obvious 8 La Mehana could sit the same trip when she won two back. Stalking a slow pace while getting first run.
ADDED as a C – 5 Beach Bomb after hearing Pete make a case for this one then to solidify the add my friend Howard Kravets liked this one as well
Race 11 is another short price favorite that everyone must decide to trust or not to trust.
A LINE
1 Mindframe is less then 2 lengths from being 4 for 4 coming. He is suppose to win this race and has the best pilot who absolutely got a couple horses to run good Friday that I would not have bet at 20-1…
7 Steal Sunshine We will get a square price on a horse that is 5 for 9 going this one turn mile at Gulfstream and he looks to get plenty of pace to run at.
Win bet for me on Steal Sunshine backing up with a 1 over 7 Exacta.
Other
8 Lightning Tones has gotten surprisingly good since being claimed in July and surprised me last time.
Race 12 will have plenty of value with 7 of 11 runners being four year old’s facing older. I have no clue who will go off as the favorite.
A LINE
1 Tax Implications I have never been impressed with but has ran well nearly every time she gets in the gate. Has never been over this Gulfstream Turf, Drawn inside, Gets Tyler and is one of only a handful who have faced older stakes company on more than one occasion.
8 In Our Time I hoping this one drifts up and we get way better than 7/2… This filly is quick and is less than a half a length from being 4 for 4 in turf routes… YES 7.5 furlongs at Gulfstream is a route. I was a bit surprised with Saffie put her in the Pegasus F/M Turf but she ran a big race going the mile in 1.32.91 digging in just being out finished by her barn mate and Sacred Wish.
11 Ready For Shirl 30-1 I could be way off with this filly. She is a half to Shirl’s Speight, she is 3 for 7, never been on a firm turf course on race day, and second off the bench. Negatives she has not faced the likes of these before and is drawn wide. Attfield did not put her in here for S & G’s…… and maybe I am just searching to hard for a price.
B LINE
2 See You Around did finish ahead of my top pick in here two back but needed every inch of ground to get there. I am sure this is another Irad horse that should be on my A Line.
7 Special Wan is a lightly raced 5 year old that has been dominating Cat Eyes in the morning which a couple weeks ago would have carried more weight with me.
9 Pounce cuts back to her best distance as she has just looked a bit flat late. If spreading I would use.
10 Life’s An Audible is another to ask yourself, what price would this horse be with Irad up?
OTHERS I would consider
3 Cairo Consort comes off the June layoff and moves back to Pletcher. She is 3 for 7 at Gulfstream but only has 1 win versus older BUT what price would this horse be with Irad aboard?
Race 13 – THE FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH Once again nothing overly clever here.
In the end I decided I wanted to be narrow or use several trying to catch a price
A LINE – Another spot where my A LINE consists of the top 2 choice which from a wagering standpoint is frustrating when you want to use both.
3 Burnham Square – If you read my stuff then you know I have been preaching about how many nice 3 year old’s Wilkes has and how his barn is set for a big year!! I am not backing down now and I want to see Edgar in the DERBY!!!
6 River Thames deserves to be in this A Line although I do not think I will be using equally. He is 2 for 2 and both races came over this surfaces.
B LINE
2 Sovereignty has been a bit of a surprise to me. I liked his works prior to debut but at no point wowed and several works he looked a bit washed out etc. Then eventually he goes off favored in the Street Sense as a maiden beating Tiztastic (was on the early short list for Breeders Cup) and Sandman who is not bad although overhyped a bit.
8 Keep It Easy stretching out is interesting, I still cannot believe this horse went off at 23-1 breaking his maiden. Lets just say Keep It Easy owes me nothing. Barn was high on him prior to debut when he drew the rail then just totally overlooked next time. Now he stretches out for the first time and has never been over this surface.
Race 14 is the only place on the card I had trouble forming an opinion that I found to be solid. Nothing Clever, I have done the work replays, figures, etc. Just all look the same
A LINE –
5 Cash Equity ran well last time but had a insane pace to run into while saving ground.
9 Grand Sonata He has been solid, nothing hidden or clever to say about him.
11 Cathkin Peak I am using after setting those fractions last time losing by 2 lengths was an accomplishment.
12 Dashman broke from the far outside last time but he will not get the pace to run into today… or will he?
B LINE – So I do this weird thing with podcasts etc. I only listen to other information after the work is done. JK seemed a bit bullish on the 4 Missed the Cut and Pete mentioned 8 Sugoi
I Likely will be using these two on my A LINE
4 Missed the Cut likely should be on my A Line being the new face but comes off the bench and a great trainer although little success here at Gulfstream… YET!
8 Sugoi has been solid but is not superstar. Has caught weak fields several times and may have another one today.
C LINE – EVERYONE ELSE
Other – I have bet 1 Anglophile many times but we are done!!!!!!! So this may just put him in the winners circle.
