The Grade 3 Essex Handicap is the featured race on this 11 race card. Skippylongstocking, who was the winner of the 2024 Oaklawn Handicap, was originally supposed to run two weeks ago in the Santa Anita Handicap. However, a mishap when boarding the plane kept him from shipping out to the West Coast. Saffie Joseph is using this Grade 3 contest as a backup plan for this seven year old gelding who was last seen winning the Pegasus World Cup. Post time today for this 11 race card is scheduled for 12:30 (CDT).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 5 | 5,1A,3 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 7,3 | 10 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 1 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 5 | 2 | 2,8 | 1 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 6 | 8 | 8,9 | 11 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | |
| 7 | 3 | 3,5 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 8 | 2 | 2,4,1 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 9 | 5 | 5 | 4 | DBL, $3 PK3 | |
| 10 | 9 | 9,10 | 11 | $5 DBL | |
| 11 | 4 | 4,3,5 |
Race 1:
Saturday kicks off with a $12,500 N2Y claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. There are eight runners entered, but only six betting interests in this contest. Argan (#5) has the look of a mare that could be the lone speed in this race. She made the front in a beaten $125,00 claiming race two starts ago. She led most of the way before tiring late. She set an honest pace that afternoon, but probably could have slowed down the tempo a bit. She blazed an opening quarter in 21:4 in her last start, which came in a starter allowance race. She drops back to a more reasonable level and she gets a rider change to Amir Mendoza, who has been riding quite well in his first full season here. She has upset potential in this spot. Boltoro (#1A) is the more desirable part of the Ronnie Cravens coupled entry in this race. Cristian Torres was in a bit of a slump, but he snapped out of it this week winning five times in the first two days. This mare threw in a clunker last time out, but her previous seven tries before that race would likely have been good enough to win with this group. Ronnie Cravens has yet to find the Winner’s Circle at this meet, but he does have good numbers first off the claim. Mo Sense (#3) is the morning line favorite and another live runner in this spot. She was very good in her last start, but she is going to have to prove that she can back up that effort. She’s had some decent efforts on this oval, so perhaps that is part of the reason for her better recent efforts. Steve Asmussen claimed her last out and she’ll go for him for the first time today.
Race 2:
State bred fillies and mares will dash 5 ½ furlongs in this $20K maiden claiming race. Royal B (#7) nearly won her debut race in an open maiden claiming race on the turf this summer at Louisiana Downs. Her two dirt efforts have not been great, losing both races by a combined total of 32 lengths. However, she was roughed up at the start in both of those local races. She’s also dropping in class to a much more realistic spot. Business was slow for David Cabrera early on, but he’s had three winners in the first two days of racing this week. Highway Seventy (#3) is also set to make his 4th career start in this race. She has shown gradual improvement in her first three starts, most recently finishing 4th with open $20K maiden claimers. I’m expecting another solid effort from her while getting some class relief here. On deeper tickets, Prone to Greatness (#10) is a live longshot that might be worth tossing underneath on some of the vertical wagers. She ran okay in her first career try when going five furlongs at Delta. She moved to open $16K-$10K maiden claiming company where she was never involved. The winner of that race won by 11 lengths though, so it’s not terribly concerning that she threw in the towel as she did. I think there are better efforts forthcoming for this three year old filly.
Race 3:
Saffie Joseph has not started many runners at this meet, but the ones that he has brought here have shown that they can run. You Ain’t Poppn (#6) is the first four live runners that Joseph is sending out here, all of which have Micah Husbands named to ride. He missed 14 months of racing, but he’s been fairly sharp with his two races since, even though there are some notable gaps in between starts. The works have been solid for a barn that has strong numbers across the board and unlike the other three runners that Joseph has brought to town, this one has had a few extra weeks to acclimate himself to the local surroundings. He ran well at two turns in the past, and I think he fits well with this group. City of Oscars (#1) is the backup for me here. He’s also stretching out to two turns after sprinting here at this level last month. It’s been hard to leave any Mark Casse runner off any tickets at this meet.
Race 4, The $135K Laptourel Overnight Stakes:
Only five fillies and mares signed up for this overnight stakes race, restricted to horses that have not won an open stakes race in 2025 or 2026. Sugar Fish (#4) won two Grade 2 races at Santa Anita in 2024, but she’s struggled somewhat in her five starts since that last graded stakes score. She was put up for auction in November and she sold for $275KMiller Racing opted to campaign her this season, and she’s looking to improve off a flat effort in her return to the races at Gulfstream last month. That race came at a one turn mile, so I do believe that going back to two turns will be to her benefit. She was working slowly at Palm Meadows, but her last drill suggests to me that she is ready to run a better race today. Peignior (#2) is the backup for me in this race. Her first two efforts at this meet have not been great.Her best races have been in Kentucky, so I’ll need to see that she can run one of those races here before taking too short of a price on her. She is worth using though since she has been facing some salty competition of late.
Race 5:
Arkansas breds will travel six furlongs in a $20K N2L claiming contest. Holus Bolus (#2) was competitive at times last season, especially at this level of competition. He was a little short when making his first start of the year in January, but was more competitive when he finished third in his last start. He’s now at his third start off the layoff and I think he’s capable of improving some more. Task (#8) feels like he’s clearly the horse to beat in this spot. He cuts back to a sprint after being in over his head last out with state bred $75K N2L claimers. He just missed at this level and distance two back and should be right in the mix again. Getoutyourwallet (#1) is a deeper tickets play for me in this race. He draws the rail for his first try against winners. He broke his maiden with $40K state bred maiden claimers in his last start, so this feels like an appropriate next step. He’s going to have to prove that he can back up his last effort, but if he’s sitting there at or around his 10-1 morning line figure, I think that’s pretty close to being fair value.
Race 6:
While there will be a lot of eyes on Jimmies Big Day (#9), who is another Saffie Joseph shipper, I think the early pace scenario sets the table nicely for Eternally Grateful (#8). I don’t love the fact that he was claimed for $24K in his last start and he’s plummeting to the $8K N1Y level in his first start for his new connections. However, this barn is aggressive with where they place their claimers. I don’t always love runners cutting back from two turns to six furlongs here, but when looking at his record over this distance, I suspect he can thrive at this shorter trip. Jimmies Big Day is going to be on the front end and they’re going to have to do whatever they can to keep him from winning here. He became eligible for this condition two days ago, which is encouraging. He’s come up a bit shorter in starter allowance races in his last two starts in Florida. I like the ship and run move here. Dr. Soulfire (#11) has the look of a horse that is more likely to finish in the money. Both of his career wins have come on the lawn, which isn’t great. However, he has run solid efforts on the main track and despite never visiting the Winner’s Circle here at Oaklawn, he’s also never not finished in the money here.
Race 7:
The Late Pick-5 begins with a $24K maiden claiming race for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles. While I think Dreamofyou (#5) is a decent favorite in this race, I’m going to make Athletic Like (#3) the top pick. He’s getting more class relief than most for his first local start. He comes here from the Fair Grounds where he wasn’t terrible two starts ago. He had a weird race last out where he pushed the fate open before the latch was sprung. His start wasn’t good as a result, and then he was carried out wide throughout the better part of the first turn. He had nothing left for the late stages of that one, but I think this is a spot where the tide could be turned. I think he’s going to be tougher than a lot of these racehorses. Dreamofyou has made five career starts and his Beyer figures continue to grow with each trip to the track. He was second in a similar spot last out and he should be right in the thick of things here as well.
Race 8:
The Late Pick-4 begins with a wide open $20K N2L claiming race. I’m going to roll with the second, third, and fourth place finishers of a similar race last out. Major Dax (#2) finished 4th, but there wasn’t a ton of difference between those two runners that finished in front of him. You’ll see that he was cross-entered in a turf race yesterday at the Fair Grounds, but since the rain never came, he’s likely to stay home and compete in this spot. He ran well when he was a little closer the front end. Look for Bejarano to employ some of the same tactics here. Weaponized (#4) ran on to be third in that race. That effort was a reversal of fortune since his two Tapeta efforts prior to that race were not very good. If you draw a line through those two Turfway efforts, he had a nice progression of races.
Race 9, The Grade 3 Essex Handicap:
Santa Anita’s loss became Oaklawn’s gain in this featured stakes race. Skippylongsocking (#5) missed that race due to a minor hiccup, but he’s back on track and should be a heavy favorite in this Grade 3 handicap. He loved racing here in 2024, scoring in the Oaklawn Handicap with absolute ease. This seven year old has almost $5.5 million in the bank over his 36 start career. I like the spacing going into this race for him and I think he’s just better than most of these runners. The logical backup for me will be Runaway Again (#4). He’s been scratching a decent amount while trying to find that “just right” level. His Prince of Wales effort was sharp enough to make me believe that he could be sitting on a better effort while getting back to two tuns.
Race 10:
I’m on the trio of outside runners in this race, making Lord of Rhymes (#9) the top pick. He’s been decent in some tough races. While a few of these runners fared better than him in his last start, I’m not convinced those horses are going to be able to run back to those efforts in this spot. Meanwhile, I think there is a chance that he could move up while making his third start off the layoff. Four O Nine (#10) was 6th in a state bred optional claiming/allowance race in his last start. His last two tries at this distance have been good enough for him to upset the apple cart. On deeper tickets, Tizmarkus (#11), who is the morning line favorite, is probably worth including. He was a dominating winner in open $10K claiming company in New York in his last start. He moves into a barn that has good numbers with new acquisitions. He did get a workout over this course, which is could .The cause for concern for me is that he’s only been with this barn for a short time and he has a history of throwing in some clunkers.
Race 11:
The day ends with a beaten $12,500 claiming race going one mile. Sound of Victory (#4) was just re-claimed by Steve Asmussen for the third time. While he’s had several chances for other trainers, all four of his career wins came with Asmussen (4-11 in total). This gelding is familiar with the Asmussen program and it clearly suits him well. Sir Exton (#3) has faltered in some strong races in his recent running lines. He;s going to need to channel his early 2025 form to have a shot here. Big Commerce is the morning line favorite, despite being 0-3 at this meet. He’s very consistent, which keeps his floor higher than anyone else here. Ashford opted for this spot instead of a similar race yesterday.
2025-26 Meet Statistics
Top Pick Winners: 66/336 (19.7%, $514.40 $1.53 ROI)
