Will be brief today with details as getting this out later than I anticipated after a big Saturday in racing.
All statistics unless stated other wise are situation specific. Example 1st Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
Early Pick 5 today I want to be narrow early because Race 5 I want as many as I can get.
Below is a low budget play at .50 = $28 I will have some different Variations of tickets in this early sequence, to get some coverage to some of the B’s I like a bit but main plays will be narrow in the middle legs.
R1 – 5 8 9 10 (ALL) on another ticket
R2 – 4
R3 – 10 Of the middle legs Race 3 is where I would opt for more coverage.
R4 – 5 6
R5 – 1 3 4 5 6 7 9
Race 1 is the first of 3 MSW’s today routing on the turf which are my favorite spots throughout the meet. Getting the first big score of the meet yesterday I am always looking for more and this is another spot I have reason to doubt the shorter prices. Unfortunately found no one here that I could lean on.
WAGER – Small Win bet on the 10 Oasis Prince
A LINE
5 Melody Man gets to the turf after 2 lackluster performances on the dirt. There are no turf works to be found, but has been working very well on the tapeta. Barn has limited stats to pull from here and the siblings have not done anything but sprint on the dirt. Strictly working well use.
8 Gallant Lad for Matz who is 5 for 20 the last 5 years MSW/Turf/Route/1st Timers. Nothing negative in the works in a field of question marks.
9 Dazzle A.P. I found zero work info. No clocker report info, no videos Nada…. Clement is 17% in this spot, slight drop to 12% when at GP, 1stTime/Rte/Turf/MSW at GP with Tyler up 1 for 16.
10 Oasis Prince (15-1) ML I may make a small bet on this one but make no mistake this is not comparable to the English Law Pick Yesterday. This runner has many red flags. Oasis Prince was a Vet Scratch once prior to debut and once he made it in the gate it was for a tag where he ran average at best saving ground and made a bit premature move. He did stay on nicely that day and gallop out past the field but lacked a turn of foot. Followed that up with a decent tapeta effort.
B LINE
3 Fighting the Wars did nothing wrong on debut which was not a surprise. Casse is 13% in this spot, 4 for 37 @GP with those parameters. Does get Irad up…
11 Nyquistador is a Brown runner with no work information. If you read my stuff then you know as much as I respect Chad, I will let him beat me in South Florida.
C Line
1 Dreambuilder is working well on the tapeta and may be one to keep an eye on down the road.
Note – Pay attention to 12 Gene and Jude for Sisterson, workmate runs later today in Race 7 Sonja Henie who has been impressive in the morning on the grass.
Race 2 is splitting hairs and only has 1 runner that would totally shock me. With that said, I will have a ticket singled to my top choice here and win bet my top selection if is even money or better.
WAGER – DD 4 into 10 but for a small/moderate nothing to crush.
LONE A 4 Shankar is a rare Saffie Claim back that has not ran a bad race since his debut. 3 for 11 routing on the tapeta while never failing to get a paycheck!!! A horse this experienced and suddenly last time Saffie put the blinkers on and ran a huge race on the grass. I will take shot here.
B LINE
6 Bay Street Money is the class of the field trying the tapeta for the first time. Has faced some very tough company in 25 starts and gets Irad in the irons.
Other
1 Iceland is stretching out to a route for the first time.
Race 3 I may take another shot here at what could be a fair price.
WAGER – DD 10 into 5 6 Small/Moderate should get decent value.
LONE A 10 Starship Augusto ran very well on debut and I have that figure almost better than anything here. This one did not get to the races until 5 years old which is unusual. He was 3 wide nearly the entire race and stayed well through the wire. If takes any type of step forward will be tough in here.
B LINE
4 High Prince tries the tapeta for the first time and has worked on it but no video to be found.
9 Dixie Preach is 0 for 18 while 0 for 7 routing on the tapeta. Maybe Irad can pick this colt up and tote him home…
Others that would not surprise me
2 Highland Peak ran a big race last time considering the trip. One of the oddest rides I have ever seen…..
11 Passionate Cry for Barboza who is 21% 1st time Routing for a tag Turf/Tap combined – 2 for 6 on tapeta….
The other first timers works just were not enough for me to consider.
Race 4 I am going to be doing more hair splitting while fading Irad again while using the lighter raced horses.
A 5 Leprechauna won on debut for the Dibona showing good speed ran on well same pace widening while slightly geared down. If she can improve and my top pick does not could put her in the winners circle.
A 6 Blond Jak will be my top selection. The Nov. 9th maiden breaker ran 3 wide with good speed pulled clear off turn held her energy to the wire. Race has 3 next out winners and I am looking for her to be the 4th.
B 3 Right Angle was borderline A coming out of solid debut for the level. The negatives…. I do not think she is as quick as the 2 above and has drawn inside of them. She was a little slow to change leads last time but when she did pulled clear for the win.
Other
If you do not want to let Irad beat you I would not fault any for using Popstyle. Her 2 tapeta sprints are a touch behind the horses I like in this spot but maybe they falter and the outside draw is enough for her to win ugly.
Race 5 I found to be very tough and want ALL or as many as I can get on a ticket.
WAGER – Small Win bet on the 7 Lil bit Sideways if drifts up in price and maybe some action in the Place / Show pool pending price. Normally Place/Show is not a spot I am looking to invest in.
A LINE
3 Reverend Moon will try the tapeta for the first, has shown good speed over the grass and drops in class. No work info over the tapeta.
5 Migratory drops in for tag for the first time and gets Irad. The March 31st race ducked out at the start then traveled wide finishing behind the 2 runner in here. Has worked well over the turf since shipping back South.
7 Lil Bit Sideways will be my top pick. He was not in for a tag on debut and made a solid effort. Fawkes is 3 for 10 in this spot and a crazy 80% in the money.
Others to consider
1 Air Force Cruising has taken money in all 3 starts while being claimed twice so obviously has shown something to get some attention. Tries the tapeta for the first with zero works available to watch. OLD NOTE prior to debut from a work at FG. Quick from gate showed good speed with a lot of knee action.
6 Smokin Jack Flash ran well last time for his new barn that took the blinkers off and changed surfaces. Would need to find a considerable amount more today but has some reasons to do so and working well according to clocker report.
9 Four Beach Friends makes his 3rd start while dropping in for a tag. Had trouble on debut but ran well then last time was very quick from the gate before fading… Adds blinkers today and found no workout video in the blinkers to say this will not move him forward.
That all but 2 so might as well toss in 4 Hard Scholar who is sprinting on the tapeta for the first time. Nando prove me wrong !
Race 6 comes down to how easy are you to forget and forgive.
Lone A 6 Work Up Quick has an outside post and obviously the Aug 23rd effort is much better than anything anyone has done in this race. The Question is what happened on the come back try last time where this colt threw out the anchor. Saffie and Zayas is all I need to know… LETS GO!
If you do not trust this one then I would be looking to use everyone but the 1 and 2…. I will simply take the favorite and move along.
