All statistics unless stated other wise are situation specific. Example 1st Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Any mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
Expect typos and grammar errors! Time is of the essence and I do not even have the budget for intern around here.
Sunday Review things to note or that I found interesting.
R1 I mentioned 12,500 Maiden claimer issue. 45-1 that was 0 for 23 coming in…. Hindsight… Yea I got nothing… Seen twitter talking about the bullet work for this one. This colt’s page is littered with bullet works? TRY AGAIN!
R2 the madness continued with the 1 horse winning that I used no where at 22-1. At least this one was trying tapeta for the first time… resulting in a $682.30 DD…
R3 was the 2nd 12,500 Maiden claimer in the sequence and the heavy favorite did no running… I avoid these races like the plague for a reason $1.00 pick 3 paid over 6K
R4 The 5 My Boy Rocky was the only horse I planned on win betting for the day at a 12-1 morning line that opened at 2-1 going off at 3-1 which was a bit shocking as I was expecting 10-1 or more so passed on a wager which ended up the right move.
R5 Favorite wins with Irad… Pick 5 paying 30K
R9 Catalytic had no excuse in here. Slow pace and many had a shot coming for home. Everyone looked like they were running in place…
You can also find John Pinder’s thoughts on the late Pick 5 here on inthemoneypodcast.com but I did want to give a quick mention of a horse in Race 6. The 1 Justinqueso is up against it, drawn on the rail for a barn whose horses usually need a race or two and several in here for big barns. While watching works on another horse couple months Justinqueso caught my eye and have been waiting to see her entered. Wilkes is 10 for 133 first time starters sprinting on the dirt in MSW’s the last 5 years and at GP 3 for 24 which is not horrible.
Early Pick 5 It appears the rain has been removed from the forecast for the entire weekend! Nice! So assuming all set for the turf!
Post scratch ticket becomes narrow. .50 primary whopping $4
R1 7
R2 3 6
R3 6 7 8 9 ( ALL button would be an option here as well)
R4 6 Alternate ticket for a smaller increment ( 1 4 )
R5 9
Race 1 is a MSW for state breds on the tapeta that is likely to have an overwhelming favorite. Luckily its the first race of the so get to see the tote and have a pick 4 opportunity if strike out.
Lone A 7 Spirited Boss we know will be favored with the presence of Irad. There are no tapeta works to view but I did watch four works on the dirt and this filly went and did her job each time easily while not asked for much. D’Angelo is 2 for 21 in this spot and that sub 36 initial recorded work jumps off the page to me. If this horse is indeed 5/2 then I would be hesitant looking to see who is taking money.
Possible Sneaky B
9 Glory Halleluja is the one I would be scared of if taking any money. Carlos David’s barn has heated up and not much work information on this one to be found. 3 for 6 with first time starters sprinting on the tapeta in MSW’s the last 5 years. Do not be scared of the fact only 5 works showing on the page as his first timers usually come into debut with the same short page….
Others that I would check to see if taking money
2 Big Lous Messenger looked ok working on the grass but nothing special. Giddings has no first time starters sprinting in MSW’s on the tapeta although she is 2 for 8 with those same parameters on the grass. So far the Bridgmohan/Giddings phenomenon we seen at Saratoga has not showed it itself as they are now 0 for 10 at Gulfstream this season.
4 First Honor I have ZERO work info for a trainer that has started 12 horses this year.
5 She’s My Lady Luck last work from the gate was sharp but not much showed after wire. Might need one.
8 Time Leap nothing hidden here… Would need to improve big time moving to the tapeta and adding blinkers.
Race 2 N2L 12,500 I will start with the two favorites of course who both have reasons to doubt.
A LINE
3 Warda is likely to be the favorite at post time for obvious reasons but she is better going 5 furlongs. The class drop should help her cause and Irad of course who I have seen get 4 different horses home this meet so far that I thought no way they could get the distance as all 4 had shown their distance limitations. Low and behold Irad gets to the top of the stretch and they run off the screen……..
6 Bubbly Champagne I have talked about this filly so man times!!! Maybe??? today getting back to sprinting. 1/5 last time and another 2nd….
B LINE”
1 Down in the Bayou cuts the claiming price in half and moved to the Oscar Gonzalez barn that is slowly heating up. She is the one that could trip out here on the rail if she can put together any kind of finish. Her lone win came going the 5.5 furlongs but she actually did not cross the line first.
9 Calming Sea has not sprinted since early on in her racing career. Now in Kelly Breen’s Barn, first time blinkers and gets bit of a weight break.
Other
8 Jurassic Park ran surprisingly well last time but odds of getting that trip again are slim.
Race 3 is a MD25K with many trying something for the first time. Unless someone reaches out with a reason to pick only one then I want as many as I can get.
A LINE
6 Grand Joker is another obvious use. Drops for tag, trying the tapeta, and adds blinkers. Barboza is 3 for 11 second time out/spt/tap/mdcl of those 11 he is 2 for 5 when dropping out of MSW company.
7 Time for Restraint I have with a slight edge over others in here that have sprinted over the tapeta. This colt has 3 solid starts over the tapeta and stayed on well last time.
8 Flag Officer tries the tapeta for the first time for Sano whose barn is firing.
9 Valid Sense for Ruben Sierra whose barn has won 3 races sense the current meet started. 8/5 , 35-1 and most recently the Sunday opener at 46-1 odds. His last was not a bad effort running once paced behind hoses shifting out late finished average which might just be good enough in here.
Others 3 more and you buy the race…
Race 4 for maidens for $17,500 almost falls under the caution category.
A LINE I think this race goes through the Yates Barn.
Daily Double Wager with the scratch of Breezy Bells opens up the Daily Double 6 into the 9.
2 Breezy Bella SCRATCHED made her debut in August 2023 taking money with R Harper Rose that was not a secret that day. Yates is 26% in this spot and 4 for 13 of that group when dropping in for a tag for the first time. The long layoff does not scare me here as it is a move I have seen from this barn before. Decent work on Oct. 26 when best over maiden claiming winner Cajun Venom.
6 Cajunette is the OTHER Yates! Take that Baffert.. This filly drops in for a tag for the first time and comes in with the best 2 dirt sprints by my figs. I will put her on top as the safest of the two.
OTHERS – I will be rolling with just the 2 above here, but neither the 1 or 4 would shock me.
RACE 5 scheduled for the grass.
LONE A (TURF) If this one stays on the grass all I will be using is 9 Highway Harmony for Abreu who has been facing tougher since May when stretching out on the turf. Irad has ridden her a couple times in New York. New York shippers have been getting the best of the local runners going long on the grass so far this meet, let see if it continues.
Tapeta If they keep her in I will use her on multi’s but she will not be the only one.
B LINE
3 Gimme Mo Baby will make her second start for Dibona and will be her second start off a lengthy break. Will need to take a big step forward but does have reasons to do so.
10 Miscreant She is borderline A but this mare has not ran back to her 2023 form as she has only made 4 starts in 2024.
Others and Surface move ups
7 My Happy Holiday is an interesting price horse on the TURF to hit the board.
