Gulfstream Park Thursday Dec. 5th Early Pick 5 by Chris Cupples

Early Pick 5 has some short fields with the exception of the first so from a value standpoint I will be narrow and see if things work out..    Not a sequence that I am super excited about, so will attack it with a narrow ticket for a multiple increment….
I do like some wagers throughout the sequence more than the actual Pick 5 itself

For a .50 increment cost a whopping $9
R1 –  1 3 7
R2 –  3
R3 – 5
R4 – 1 2 3 4 5 6
R5 – 4

Race 1 has several trying things for the first time but I will take my chances with the more likely winners.
A Line
1 – Better Than Better is the most proven in the field over the grass but not one to get to excited about.   Last time she ran well on the tapeta with a bit of trouble early and Oct. 18th race was a near perfect trip but with question marks on several I want to have her on tickets.
3 –  La Cantera will need to greatly improve getting on the grass and moving to Saffie’s care.   Saffie is 30% the last 5 years 1st off the claim with Tyler at Gulfstream and all three prior races were originally carded for the grass.
7 – More for Sure will be over bet of course with Irad up.  Showed little on debut versus MSW’s and changes barns, gets blinkers, drops in class…..

B Line
4 –  Abundant Love for Trombetta who is 17% 3rd start Turf Routing for a tag.

There are several left out trying something new that could surprise….

Pick 3
R1 – 1 3 4 7
R2 – 3
R3 – 5

Race 2 has a logical favorite that does have a red flag……
Lone A –  3 Coldstream is the morning line favorite and I will use as a lone A.   2nd Time Starter / Sprint/ Dirt / MD Claiming last 5 years saffie is 40%  and gets slight increase when at Gulfstream Park.   Will need to improve off the debut which is expected….  The negative is a $350,000 Justify gelding that did not debut until 4 years old and connections immediately are looking to move on from.

Daily Double 
R2 – 3 
R3 – 5

Race 3 
Lone A – 5 Zio Lorenzo will be another short price favorite that I am leaning on as the Nov. 10th race buries this group and has ran very consistent in 10 tries sprinting on the tapeta.   Only concern is a couples races he did break slow and was outpaced early but that almost looked like an experiment.   Value opportunity possibly ?   Looks to be a short price but with Irad and Tyler in town they will take some money which will pump a bit of value back into the favorite.

Win Bet 5 Zio Lorenzo 
Exacta and Trifecta  
5 
3 6
2 3 6

Race 4 is a short field that I can make a case for ITM popular all but 1!
A Line
1 Risen Sun drops in for a tag making his 2nd start.  Nolan Ramsey has limited runners so second time starters does not really come into play yet….   But sporting 24% win percentage overall right out of the gates is impressive….
4 Signal Caller is 1 of 3 in here coming out of the Krioyo(Won next start this past weekend) race on Nov. 10th breaking sharply and rated followed by a very early wide move to the lead before leveling off in the lane.  Could drift up in price in this spot and would be worth a small win wager.
6 Skull Honor also comes out of the Nov. 10th race being outpaced a bit early on but finished the best of the 3 run backs improving from his previous where he had a similar trip finishing with interest for the level.

B Line
2 Yemrehanakristos was claimed last time by Garoffalo is 13% first off claim last 5 years and with Vazquez riding 4 for 11.   Will be stretching out for the first time and galloped out decent for the level last time……
3 Premiado has the most experience of the group and has slowly improved each start which could make him the horse to beat but with no excuses in the previous it is hard to think someone will not step forward making him an underneath horse once again.

C – 5 Tempo Ride could likely do without here and he stopped when routing last time and the work I watched with blinkers did not appear to be any improvement from his previous without the blinkers …..

7 is the horse I will not use which could put him in the winners circle….

Race 5
Lone A – 4 Hub City is not stepping up in class from a condition standpoint but she is when it comes to the field as most others in here have been facing much tougher.   She had won 4 in a row(if you include the DQ as a win) before being ran down by Mywifeknowsitall last time.  I have her with a very narrow figure edge by my numbers when it comes to sprinting on the tapeta with most of the competition off their best form as of late.

Lone B – 2 Gunesh is a bit of a mystery.   Going back to Dec 17th of 2023 when the blinkers where added she ran 3 solid tapeta sprints here at Gulfstream running behind some above average horses in Ro Town and MyLadyJames, I have those effort slightly better than her win on March 14th when the blinkers were took off and moved to the dirt.   After that the wheels ran completely off…..