All statistics unless stated other wise are situation specific. Example Last 5 years 1st Time Starter /MSW / Turf / Route = %
Any mention of Figures refers to my personal figures unless stated otherwise.
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I will be covering the Early Pick 5, plus any strong plays, stakes, MSW late on cards. You can find John Pinder’s work on the late Pick 5 under the Gulfstream Park menu as well here at Inthemoneypodcast.com
Quick Review of New Years Day
I continued a trend as of late with the early Pick 5 getting knocked out by a low level claimer which becomes even more frustrating when you have a 4-1 single in the last of the sequence look like a winner every step of the way. I see those guys on twitter selling picks with all the cool names Bills Bombs, The Pick5King , Pick6Mafia, etc. Maybe I could be the 4of5GUY ??? nah…..
Luckily I did swing back with a Pick 3 starting at Race 3 and cashed.
Race 8 Someone may have this on hand so I do not have to look it up later, but I think Sweet Note which I liked continued a trend of Churchill dirt horses shipping into Gulfstream with expectations and not running a step. I could be wrong on that and have on the to do list to go back.
I am not as enthusiastic about this Thursday card as I was the New Years Day card, but did find a couple spots in the early sequence.
Updated Post Scratches
Early Pick 5 was not affected in anyway by scratches. I will get involved but is not a sequence I am going to invest a ton in.
ALL A Ticket .50 = $80 I will split race 5 into 2 tickets. Doubling my increment singling the 9.
R1 – 2 4 7 8
R2 – 5
R3 – 3 4 5 6
R4 – 1 5 6 7 8
R5 – 5 9
Unless scratches change things, I have nothing I am looking to play in the last 4 races..
RACE 1 found nothing hidden other than what you see on paper and will use the obvious 3 Equally
A LINE I have no top pick here. Just looking to get through the first leg of the sequence.
4 Makia Both Makia and Sainte Chapelle ran well last but neither had an excuse.
7 Sainte Chapelle (SeeAbove)
8 Lilys Back if the 3rd obvious horse in here. First off the claim for Gonzales but not made it to the races since that last try in Sept. and gets Irad aboard.
The only other I would consider here would be the 2 Miss Mutz for Sweezey that just keeps sending out runners. If taking any money I will likely throw on my ticket.
Race 2
WAGER — I would like to be able to bet this race to Win on the 5 with a backup 6 over 5 Exacta but price likely will not allow it. If that is the case I will play a 5 over 6 Cold Exacta….
LONE A – 5 Heir to the Roar is simply much better than any other in here, the only reservation is the trip. Has broke slow a couple times as of late but still gets up with the exception of two back in an eleven horse field when she was extremely wide getting up for second. A better trip that day and she gets up which would make her 3 for 3 since Barboza claimed.
LONE B – 6 Mywifeknowsitall looks to get the same trip she got last time getting first run on the leader and will be trying to fend off the favorite. If you would be crushed by loosing this leg maybe you use her as well.
Others
1 Foggy Note is a takeout reducer in my view with Irad up. If I am wrong it will not be the first time Irad has made me look silly.
4 Above the Limit is quick and never raced over the tapeta. So does fall under the unknown category.
7 Coolcalm Collected SCRATCHED (See above line with the difference being a dirt horse rather than turf)
Race 3 is the first of back to back races with a wide open look with this race having no clear pace setter.
A LINE
3 Queen McKinzie has the most experience of the group running respectable dirt sprinting. Reyes is familiar with this filly and knows he has to get her moving early.
4 Areacodefiveoone I could make a case to single based off connections/stats but the Saffie/Irad combination will be a short price. In the last 5 years Saffie has claimed 14 runners out of their debut and 5 of those won next out.
5 Lay Meghan should improve out the debut. Barboza is 18% in this spot and 53% itm.
6 Venezuelan Pride’s debut race I have as the best dirt sprint of the group but the negatives….. That was over a sloppy surface and was claimed in the second start. Ramsay is 1 for 11 first off the claim in his short career and claiming off Barboza?
Others Not Using although would not shock me if won.
1 La Cyber (SCRATCHED) drops to a tag for the first time and the D’Angelo is 25% with this move . I am not using as have not liked the works for this filly and she was Vet SCR Nov. 9th then re-entered Nov 15th being a trainer scratch.
2 Ask the Monarch obviously should improve off the debut for O’Connell but this filly looked lost out there which is enough for me to eliminate.
Race 4 is another where I need several finding them difficult to separate. Not typically a place I look to make a win wager but I believe the price on my top pick will be to good to pass up.
A LINE WAGER I will have a moderate Win bet on Vanishing Wish at a price.
1 My Chutzpah had the blinkers removed 2 back and woke this 5 year old mare up. Has speed and the rail after being drawn wide last out unable to clear.
5 Vanishing Wish similar to the My Chutzpah the blinkers were took off Sept. 14th running on the dirt proving what connections apparently already knew that she don’t like the dirt… Then she got back to her preferred surface Oct 25th drew the rail fell far back making up a ton of ground just missing.
Nov. 15th she was shuffled back and then closed into a slow pace once again making up a ton of ground.
Dec. 6th she got the good trip once clear in the stretch she was gone.
Now she faces winners for the first time which is tough to do but price will be right.
6 Musthavebeenlove has been very consistent with some less than ideal trips scattered in her past performances. She definitely has a big chance in here but just continues to find ways to lose.
7 She’s So Sexy has some reasons to be against but also fits with the group. I am not crazy about claiming off Saffie even if you are Michael Maker.
8 Evanora ran well last time being hung wide and Irad nearly got her up anyway. Irad sticks around, so hate to get beat by this one.
B LINE
4 Bayernee I had a notch below but with using that many as A’s does not make sense to totally dismiss her.
Race 5 I am primarily using the obvious two runners. Pending Ticket structure after scratches I may have the 9 Light Forever pressed a couple more times.
A LINE
5 Venezuelan Hope had a slight stumble out of the gate last time followed by bit traffic, but ultimately saved ground and had every chance off the turn running on same pace. Ultimately the last could be enough for this group.
9 Light Forever would be my choice of the two having more speed and I thought showed more reasons to improve off the last effort being hung wide but finishing well just a touch green.
B Line – 5 6 7 but I will only be using the two above.
