Race 1: #4 Sweet Crystal (5-1)
#4 Sweet Crystal (5-1) is my pick to kick off Sunday’s card. The Twirling Candy filly is clearly at her best when allowed to have things her own way on the front end and that sure looks to be the case in today’s opener. This will be her second start after a long layoff so I’m expecting a step forward after an okay effort last time. She must beat the favorite drawn directly to her outside, but her best races put her in the mix.
Race 2: #3 Jocelyn (5/2)
On paper, this heat appears to be a match race between #3 Jocelyn (5/2) and #4 Emityaaz (4/5). I prefer the upside and higher price of #3 Jocelyn (5/2). The three year old seems to have turned the corner as of late winning two of her past three in impressive fashion. The form brightens further if you’re willing to toss the grass race and I like that she is once again realistically spotted at this low claiming level. Expect her to be forwardly placed throughout and give the favorite a run for the money.
Race 3: #5 Purple Octopus (7/5)
#5 Purple Octopus (7/5) simply towers over this field on speed figures and should win this race at a short price with anything close to his best. He was in way too tough last time on the Derby undercard, but today he plummets back to the bottom and returns to the site of his two fastest races. He’s ideally drawn towards the outside and possesses enough speed to be involved throughout.
Race 4: #4 Sendero (6-1)
I’m hoping #4 Sendero (6-1) just needed his most recent race because I think his prior form gives him a chance. He kept excellent company as a three year old in Florida, earning figures that would probably make him favored here. I know his return effort was bad, but that was only five furlongs, and it’s encouraging that there’s no drop in class for his second race off the shelf. He has the best late pace figures by a comfortable margin and he should be rolling down the lane in the final furlong.
Race 5: #6 Dream Nap (3-1)
Not much was expected of #6 Dream Nap (3-1) on debut as she was sent off at 10-1 and yet she won that race pretty easily over an odds-on favorite. She was prominent throughout, attending the pace from the outside and drawing away from the field in the final stages. The runner-up returned to win and actually shows up again in this spot. However, Dream Nap is once again drawn outside of that foe and appears to have an edge. Bullet workout since the debut suggests she’s ready to fire and she should get a similar trip to last time.
Race 6: #4 Trail Ridge Road (6-1)
#2 Oeuvre (4/5) and #5 Katie M’Lady (3-1) will take all the money in today’s featured race as these mares win more than their fair share of races. But Oeuvre can’t let her main rival get away uncontested and I think they might go faster than preferred, setting it up for the late kick of #4 Trail Ridge Road (6-1). This mare returns from a long layoff for a trainer that is excellent with this move, and I love the confidence of this race placement. Her form tailed off last summer after a long campaign, but she does have races that give her a chance and she’s shown an affinity for this turf course. Hopefully, the freshening is just what she needed and the “other” Block can post the upset.
Race 7: #2 Baseball Politics (3-1)
In this five furlong dash I like the chances of #2 Baseball Politics (3-1) to be the best of speed. He’s got one way to go from this inside draw, and that’s just fine with me since all three of his recent wins have occurred when he’s prominent from the bell. His figures make him tough and he’s helped by the fact that his main rival will have to overcome a tricky rail draw in this short race.
Race 8: #5 All About Tonite (4-1) (Best Bet)
I really like the chances of #5 All About Tonite (4-1) in this spot. His recent form is dirtied up by a couple of races that were taken off the turf, and he should really appreciate getting back to the grass. He hasn’t sprinted on turf since last summer, when he earned figures as a two year old that would be competitive against this field. If he’s improved at all from two to three, then this race could be history. He has enough early foot to be close to the pace, and this drop from maiden special weight to maiden claimers could be another difference maker.
Race 9: #3 Calisue (7/2)
Slight preference to #3 Calisue (7/2) to defeat the favored #7 Commissioner Gulch (1-1) in today’s ninth race. The price disparity was enough to make me lean towards the former since their figures of late are pretty similar and Calisue has proven two-turn form. She’ll have to overcome a potential slow pace, but she’s been against the flow in her last three starts and still been in the exacta so I wouldn’t put it past her.
Race 10: #1 Empirical View (7/2)
#1 Empirical View (7/2) might get a perfect pocket trip in today’s nightcap. Two rivals to her outside want the lead and she’ll probably tuck in right behind them like she tried to do last fall at Keeneland. Those rivals were too tough, but she was far from disgraced that day and faces easier here. I also liked her comeback race when she had a wide draw and tried to make a move into a fast pace and simply couldn’t sustain that rally. Not a bad effort considering the layoff and a tricky Churchill turf course. Again, this is an easier spot and she’ll get first run on the closers.
