You can reach me on “X” @hkravets and/or email at hkravetshorse@gmail.com….. Post time is 3:10pm EST. Good luck, and CRUSH YOUR BETS! (Keep in mind, all selections in scheduled grass races assume race stays on turf).
Race 1: 6 – 3 – 2
This is strictly a class play. #6 Remember the Fear (9-2) has been facing much tougher at Churchill and now drops into a $15k maiden claimer. Jockey Hernandez needs to make sure the 3yo son of Honor Code is not too far back early.
Race 2: 6 – 3 – 2
Early Pick 4 Ticket: 2,3,6 / ALL / 1,2,6 / 8 ($31.50) (assumes races STAY ON TURF)
#6 Absolute Class (7-2) should sit a very good trip, stalking on the outside of the main speed. If the gelding outbreaks the field, he could find himself on the lead also. Drops into a more reasonable spot after facing toughies last time.
Race 3: 7 – 3 – 2
Very wide open field here as you can tell by my “all-button” in the Pick 4 ticket. I’ll take a stab with #7 Plain or Peanut (9-2), who takes a big drop down to $4k claimers. I’m a little worried about the negative jockey switch, but Hernandez is capable and “Peanut” should fire here. 2/27 overall record doesn’t exactly exude confidence.
Race 4: 1 – 6 – 2
Although turf sprints are not my thing, it sure looks like #1 Faccia Bella (7-5) is one of the most likely winners on the card. She ran great for Trainer Block first-time a few weeks back, and maybe she’s found a home sprinting. There’s plenty of speed to chase, and she’ll likely get a ground-saving trip from here.
Race 5: 8 – 4 – 1
Sometimes horses just like to win. That’s the case for #8 Jolie Ruler (5-2), who is 10/38 lifetime. She won last time easily for $7,500 and is in the same class level again. She’s not the mare she used to be, but a stalking trip from the outside might just get the job done again.
Race 6: 4 – 6 – 1
Late Pick 4 Ticket: 4,6 / 1,4 / 2,3,6,7,9 / 4,6,7 ($30)
The start of a nice Late P4 begins with turf claimers. I don’t like the morning like price of #4 Miss River Rat (9-5), but if you look carefully, she has numbers on the go-back on grass that are best in this field. Her form seems to be improving and could be tough today given the right trip for a deadly jockey/trainer combo.
Race 7: 4 – 1 – 3
If I were giving out a “Play of the Day”, this would be the one. With a salty group of veterans to beat, you’re almost guaranteed to get a price on #4 Hard to Fathom (8-1). The Hard Spun gelding is one of a few in there that has upside as a 4yo, and he’s improving. Plus, he has a great running style for this predicted race flow. Hope apprentice jock sits off the speed and makes a run in the lane. Has a few lengths to make up on the top choices, but I believe that’s very doable….at a price.
Race 8: 2 – 9 – 6
#2 Flying Samurai (9-2) has not been able to get loose lately, but if he can get the early lead easily, which seems possible here, he could get very brave on the lead…not a lot of horses to trust in this event for nickel claimers.
Race 9: 6 – 4 – 7
For the last race of the day, it’s time to go to school. #6 Professor Higgins (4-1) has only 6 lifetime starts and therefore a right to improve, plus 2nd start off the layoff. He has a nice closing kick, and although this is a jump up in class on paper, it feels more like a lateral move to me. Needs things to go his way however.
