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Race 1: 1 – 7 – 6
The opener pits many horses against each other from the May 18th race. #1 Miss Mikos (4-5) will be tough here, as she was 3 ½ lengths clear of a bunch of her foes today while battling with talented firster Dream Nap. Cohen will most likely sit just off and go by in the lane at very low odds unless one of the 2nd-time starters really steps up her game.
Race 2: 1 – 2 – 6
Early Pick 4 Ticket: 1 / 1,5,7 / 2,3,5,6,7 / 3,4,5 ($22.50)
#1 Charlie Lightning (6-5) has just been claimed by trainer H. Rodriguez, who is hitting at 28% this meet. His tactical speed from the inside should be very effective today as he most likely sits off of the just to his outside. His last race was a tightener and he should be even better today.
Race 3: 1 – 5 – 7
I promise I’m not picking the rail horse in every race today within this analysis, but #1 T Law (7-2) makes plenty of sense. The 4yo old by Ghostzapper might be coming into his own as he’s shown the ability to close into fast paces, which is likely in this race. Two maintenance works since his last should have kept this gelding in fine form, and a good trip from the inside today seems likely.
Race 4: 3 – 2 – 6
I was a little surprised to see my top choice, #3 Miss River Rat (7-5), as low as she is in the morning line, but I’ll go with her anyway. She has run well at his condition for Ill.-breds in her last three, with one 2nd and two 3rds. Last race, she lost to a good one in Beehive who runs in the next race on the card. She is now only 1-for-8 lifetime, but has faced good horses in general and is probably one trip away from a win vs. this field.
Race 5: 5 – 4 – 3
Late Pick 4 Ticket: 3,4,5 / 5,6,7 / 2,8,12 / 2,4,8,10 ($54)
Nice field of seven allowance runners sprinting 6f. Talented runner #5 Beehive (3-1), an Ill.-bred daughter of Temple City, was able to stalk and pounce last time vs. fellow Ill.-breds and crush their souls in the stretch, winning by 6+. Now, she faces open company, but her talent and speed figs fit vs. this field. With a likely effort / trip today, Beehive has a great chance to “sting” another field, this time at a better price than the 50c to the dollar she paid in her last.
Race 6: 7 – 5 – 6
If you agree with my top pick, #7 Hawaiian Hide Away (7-2), you have to hope he is able to clear the field early and go gate-to-wire. In his last effort, he got caught up in a fast yearly pace duel going 47 and change to the half. The horse that beat him, Izeondec, came back and won last weekend. Even if he doesn’t clear, he can sit off of Palhaco just to his outside and in theory go by in the lane while holding off the closers.
Race 7: 12 – 2 – 8
In one of the most wide-open races of the day for $5k claimers, I’m going with a huge longshot in the #12 Suporb (20-1) for very low percentage trainer and jockey. My main angle here is that the 5-yr. old mare has been facing tougher company outside of Illinois. Even though the class level is the same, these horses are not as talented as the ones she faced out of town. Not only that, she has worked twice and trainer Spagnola has had success with this type of break (4/17, 24%). Going with a flyer in a wide-open field, why not?!
Race 8: 4 – 8 – 10
#4 Bruce Banner (7-2) has only 2 wins from 23 lifetime starts, but was out-of-town for most of those and very competitive in his losses. I like his tactical speed, and with the rails out 20ft, speed should hold better than usual. Perhaps the break has done him some good, although I don’t like the light worktab. The presence of veteran jockey Felix is a plus.
