**FYI, I will be traveling to Europe over the next two weekends, therefore Jackson Munoz will cover those days. I couldn’t pass up the opportunity to go to Royal Ascot during the first two days of the meet. Cheers everyone!
You can reach me on “X” @hkravets and/or email at hkravetshorse@gmail.com….. Post time is 3:40pm EST. Good luck, and CRUSH YOUR BETS! (Keep in mind, all selections in scheduled grass races assume race stays on turf).
Race 1: 2 – 4 – 5
I’ll start today with some chalk in #2 Chaos Reigns (7-5). The son of Malibu Moon ran well first time over the track, finishing 3rd into a fast pace, first time on wet dirt. Jockey Felix will be forward here, but probably doesn’t need the lead to win.
Race 2: 1 – 8 – 6
Early Pick 4 Ticket: 1,6,8 / 4 / 3,9,10 / 1,5 ($9) (assumes races STAY ON TURF)
#1 Move It Baby (3-1) gets a nice cozy rail draw for this short sprint on the lawn going 5f. She won last time, and is 5-for-12 overall lifetime. I see no reason why she can’t stalk and pounce again today…just needs to repeat that effort, or come close to it, and find room in the lane to secure a victory.
Race 3: 4 – 1 – 7
It’s very rare that I’d even consider taking a 5yo maiden who hasn’t won in 20 lifetime starts, yet here we are. #4 Mining Camp (5-2) has one thing that many of his opponents don’t: early speed. He’s also dropping down to a more effective level. If you toss out the synthetic races, he’s simply the fastest on paper and has a big pace advantage. Don’t take too low a price on him…he’s just not that reliable.
Race 4: 9 – 10 – 3
Nice allowance race on the turf for the sprinters….a VERY impressive debut winner could be tough once again in #9 Where Ya At Vince (5-2). He rushed up, was involved in a fast early pace, and still won at the very tough Keeneland meet on dirt for Catalano. Now, Rivelli takes over and switches him to turf. There’s plenty of turf breeding on the dam side for the 3yo son of Paynter. Two concerns with sharing: 1) A suspect worktab, and 2) A speedy horse just to his outside and might make things uncomfortable for him.
Race 5: 5 – 1 – 6
Cheaper maidens on display here, and I assume the rail horse will be a heavy favorite. Of course that one could win, but I’ll go with the more experienced #5 Anna After Midnite (4-1). She’s been involved in fast paces early, and now cuts back in distance. Perhaps she can sit off the rail horse, or just take the lead if that one doesn’t go to the front. She’s nothing special, but is capable given the right scenario.
Race 6: 7 – 5 – 4
Late Pick 4 Ticket: 4,5,7,9 / 4,5,6,7 / 2,4,5,8,9,10 / 7 ($48)
Today’s Late P4 might be the best, most wide-open races in one sequence I’ve seen since the meet began. You’ll DEFINITELY want to jump into this pool! It starts with a challenging two-turn turf claimer. The race on May 12th, Race 4, is one you’ll want to watch. #7 Ms. Ks Dynasty (9-2) ran big losing a ton of ground on the far turn and just coming up short. That was her first start on the turf, and she’s bred well for it as a daughter of Temple City. I’m not a huge fan of the jock, who’s winless in 14 mounts this meet, but he got a feel for her last time and hope he can save more ground than he did in her last start.
Race 7: 6 – 4 – 5
The highest-quality race of the day is here. I needed #6 Went West (4-1) last time on Illinois Derby Day, and he just missed. Today, he gets an extra ½ furlong and perhaps more early pace to run into. Trainer Rodriguez is 28% at the meet, and Went West is consistent….will close into an expected fast pace.
Race 8: 5 – 8 – 4
This race is by far the most interesting race on the card, with many question marks and angles to look at for maidens going two turns on the lawn. Trainer Roussel usually brings live turf horses to Hawthorne, and I believe he’s done that again with #5 Interlude (6-1). He was my top choice last time he was supposed to run, but the race was taken off the turf. The son of Mendelssohn ran well in his first two starts as a 2yo, then was wide and got a tough trip at the FG around Thanksgiving 2023. He comes back with several good works, gets our leading jock in Ceneno, and still has plenty of upside as a newly turned 3yo. In these connections I trust….he’ll have to be good in this competitive field.
Race 9: 7 – 6 – 4
The finale is a tricky $4k claimer for the girls. There’s plenty of early speed signed on, and very few horses that have shown the ability to pass their counterparts. I’ll go with #7 Shez Reckless (6-1), who has plenty of numbers on the go-back that would win this race easily. The problem? She hasn’t run that fast lately at all. Perhaps the move back to an outer post will allow her to stalk and pounce. She also is rested up, having not run in 2 months.
