You can reach me on “X” @hkravets and/or email at hkravetshorse@gmail.com….. Post time is 3:10pm EST. Good luck, and CRUSH YOUR BETS!
Race 1: 5 – 6 – 7
I have to proclaim my bias here…#5 Euclid Avenue (7-5) is owned by the great people of Crown’s Way Racing, of which I’m a proud partner. I do have a small piece of him, but really he is the obvious choice anyway without my wishes in the opener. He’s lone speed on paper and didn’t break at all last time, plus he’s dropping down. If he gets to the top today early, he’ll be tough to catch.
Race 2: 2 – 1 – 5
Early Pick 4 Ticket: 1,2 / 5,7 / 1,2,4,7 / 1 ($8)
Another possible wire-to-wire candidate, similar to Race 1, is #2 I’m Wide Awake (4-5). He ran a hole in the wind last time and looks to get loose again. A speed regression is very likely, but it might not matter today. From Kentucky, to Cicero, to the Winner’s Circle?
Race 3: 5 – 7 – 1
Babies travel 4 ½ furlongs, and Rivelli has two in here. I prefer the firster on the outside of his runners, but my top pick is #5 Takeitaway (5-2) for Michele Boyce, who’s working very well. The gelding is bred well, and the dam has produced some nice Ill-breds. My concern is he wants to go farther than this distance, but maybe he’s talented enough that it won’t matter. Obviously has to break well to have a chance.
Race 4: 2 – 1 – 4
#2 Last Minute (5-2) cost $475k at auction, so you know he is well-meant. He has not raced since his debut last year, but is working well for his 3yo debut. He’s bred nicely for turf too…grandsire is the great War Front, and is out of a Distorted Humor mare. You’d have to assume this is a straight send as connections are hoping to wire the field? He’s more potential than results right now, but that might change after today’s race.
Race 5: 1 – 4 – 6
#1 Sally’s Surprise (8-5) has needed some time to figure out the game. But she seems to be improving, as evidenced by last race’s big Beyer jump. The 6 ½ furlongs should hit her right between the eyes, and the field has come up a bit weak for the level. Stalk and pounce from a ground-saving trip.
Race 6: 1 – 4 – 7
Nice allowance race here, and I’ll go to the Ill-Bred, #1 Trail Ridge Road (5-2). Although she’s facing open-company, she’s done it many times before, plus she’s been staked too, so there’s class through her blood. There’s enough early speed to set up her midpack / closing kick, and the rail assures her saving ground. Just needs to find room in the lane to go past’em.
Race 7: 4 – 1 – 5
Late Pick 4 Ticket: 1,4,5 / 1,4,5 / 3,4,7 / 1,3,9 ($40.50)
“Flagfall to that’s all”….that should be the plan for #4 Strange Arrange (7-2). According to Timeform US Early Pace figures, he’s completely loose on the lead. Now, there are concerns he can’t get the 6 ½ furlongs, because he’s given it up late several times. But if he does get to the lead comfortably and can slow it down even a little bit, he’ll be tough to catch…and won’t be favored either.
Race 8: 4 – 5 – 1
I don’t like to pick so many morning-line favorites as I am today, but ML-maker Jim Miller is spot on, and #4 Get N Tipsy (9-5) just seems like a likely winner. The Haran-trained 7yo comes in from Indiana in very fine form, and she’s consistently good at this level. Jockey Burgos knows this horse and keeps the mount, so that’s a positive.
Race 9: 3 – 4 – 7
#3 The Ridge (4-1) is not the most talented horse in Rivelli’s barn. But, he has plenty of speed and has been rested up a bit for this affair. Plus, he’s faced tougher than most of the field and has every right to improve today. He might need to sit a bit off of the horse just to his outside, but I like Cohen in the saddle. He’ll break well and make some decisions…doesn’t have to have the lead today.
Race 10: 1 – 3 – 9
When a trainer is 3/62 on the meet, I’m a bit leery. However, Trainer Childers lures excellent jockey David Cohen to ride his horse, #1 Schmoozin (5-1), coming in from downstate. He’s the class of the field and should be able to sit a decent trip just off the speed. His speed figures are simply better than most today on a consistent basis.
