You can reach me on “X” @hkravets and/or email at hkravetshorse@gmail.com….. Post time is 3:10pm EST. Good luck, and CRUSH YOUR BETS! (Keep in mind, all selections in scheduled grass races assume race stays on turf).
Race 1: 1 – 4 – 2
Nice turf sprint starts off the day…..morning line favorite #1 Di’s Surprise (7-5) has plenty of early speed, but has shown an ability to sit right off. That will serve her well as the one to her outside is awfully speedy early. The break will be huge here.
Race 2: 1 – 5 – 4
Early Pick 4 Ticket: 1,4,5 / 2,5,6 / 1,3 / 1,2 ($18) (assumes races STAY ON TURF)
#1 Canyon Shadows (1-1) is the clear favorite. He’s faced open-company horses on dirt and now faces only state-breds. I’ll be using others because this is his 4th start in just over a month and I don’t fully trust him. However, the rest of the field has many question marks, so I hope he’ll be ready…blinks off.
Race 3: 5 – 2 – 6
#5 Charlie’s Beach (5-2) may not be favored as he faces an odds-on horse inside of him. But, I like his ability to rate and finish. If you look at his speed figs, he IS the horse to beat. I’ll trust the numbers.
Race 4: 1 – 3 – 6
When you have a horse that’s been running exclusively in Kentucky vs. much tougher, you need to pay attention here at Hawthorne. #1 Code Runner (2-1) is dropping down for new trainer Brian Cook, who’s been struggling this year. But I believe the horse will overcome the poor trainer stats. He does have a bullet work over the track recently to sharpen him up. If he’s right, he’ll take care of this field.
Race 5: 2 – 1 – 5
I might be trying to get too cute here, but I have a feeling the rail horse, who will be heavily favored, is going to regress. He’s coming in from California with no local works and might need one to acclimate over the surface. Therefore, I’ll go with #2 Double Thunder (7-2), who is as sharp as can be right now and is not far off the speed figs of the #1. Jockey Felix takes the mount again…I’m looking for a repeat and a slight upset.
Race 6: 6 – 1 – 2
With plenty of early gas signed on, #6 I’m Box Office (9-5) should be able to come over the top late. She puts blinkers on and has plenty of form and class in her past performances to get the job done. Last time off the layoff, she had no chance after a stumbling start and being rank early. It’s fair to question why she’s in for the tag, but it looks like Block is simply placing her in a realistic spot.
Race 7: 3 – 4 – 7
Late Pick 4 Ticket: 1,3,4,7 / 1,6,8 / 1,2,3 / 2,3,8 ($54)
This high-class allowance has many runners who’ve faced each other several times. And while one of them can absolutely win, I’m choosing a fresh face (and a price) with #3 Macron (10-1). Trainer Haran is having an excellent meeting by hitting at 20%, and he’s faced some VERY tough foes at Churchill and Oaklawn. He might be a bit pace-dependent, but the speed could come back a bit in here and he picks up talented young rider Centeno. No reason to take a short price in this type of event…although #4 WW Hotshot might be the goods if he’s ready.
Race 8: 6 – 8 – 1
#6 Dragon Drew (4-1) has early speed and experience on turf/synthetics. That’s a deadly combination which should serve the veteran 9yo well. He needed his last effort and should be tighter today. I am concerned he’s lost a bit off the fastball, but his back-class should be telling here.
Race 9: 3 – 1 – 2
I’m hoping #3 Top Look (7-2) lives up to his name. I like the cutback to sprinting and the switch from turf to dirt. The filly has enough tactical speed to put herself in the game early and should be a factor from the start.
Race 10: 3 – 2 – 8
The finale looks like a good place to take a flyer and fade the supposed favorites. Dropping in for $20k, maiden first-time turfer #3 La Perfect Bee (10-1) hits the grass, and he’s bred for it. By Bee Jersey out of a Perfect Soul mare, the connections have tried twice to get him on the turf but he’s been rained off. He should show some early speed and be not too far off the pace. The question is simple: will he take to the grass well? With one of the leading riders taking over, I believe the answer is “yes.”
